Splash Survivor World Championship picks are in!
Of the 11 players left with the max of 150 entries, only one went all-in on the same team.
And of course they went with the 49ers. Good luck, @galenhall!
Not all surviving entries are worth the same.
We used each entry's optimal path survival odds to the finish, relative to the rest of the field, to estimate each entry's value based on who they picked in Week 1.
Note that there was a higher premium for using a low Future Value team in Splash WC, with its 24 picks, than for Circa.
What stands out in this data?
Knowing the makeup of your pool's entries can help you project where the picks will go.
Players with just a single entry left tend to go heavier on the chalk, while players owning multiple entries will spread them down to less-picked teams.
And of course, as the season plays out, the ratio shifts as multi-entry players become single.
How much of the field in large pools by @CircaSports and @splashsports is made up of people with single entries vs players who max enter? And how does entry fee affect that?
Understanding this helps when projecting where the picks will go.
Here is the data we have from last year and what we know so far for 2026 pools.
Who do you have available for Thanksgiving in @CircaSports Survivor?
Six entries are down to only underdogs, with many locked in to a single favorite available.
Our standings page lets you switch to 'Availability' mode to see top W% options available to each entry for any week of the season.
Arizona goes down in shocking fashion! And just like that, over half the pool is eliminated in Week 5 as we head into Sunday Night Football. BUF picks now make up 13.9% of the remaining pool.
@Byeweekpicks@DaSharpAction We project them from market data using a regression on all existing lines for the season (with recency decay), blending in market season win total data early when there is less game data.
The goal is not to beat the market, but predict it.
How did those with multiple entries in @CircaSports Survivor spread their entries in Week 4? Dig into the pick data each week on PoolCrunch within seconds of the PDF release.
51% on the Broncos 👀
Was it the $100k ticket price? Or the fact that it's made up of mostly single-entry players?
In the $1k Circa pool, players with just a single entry went for the Broncos at a rate of 52%!
Knowing the makeup of your pool can help you understand where they are going next.
@CircaSports We crunched the Week 1 selection numbers. Single entries went a lot heavier to the Broncos than those with multiple. Nearly 10% are through as we head to Sunday
Playing in @CircaSports Survivor? Not only is PoolCrunch built to support any survivor pool configuration (including Holiday Slates), but we also make it painless to get your data in the system and use our tools on your Circa entries.
@Hokies02 That is correct, we simplified SurvivorGrid a bit this year, since we are soon launching PoolCrunch, which will let you save entries/picks/grids, and more
The 2025 grid will be up later today, along with a big announcement! We’ve been crunching away on a new evolution of SurvivorGrid all offseason and can’t wait to share it with you
The 2025 grid will be up later today, along with a big announcement! We’ve been crunching away on a new evolution of SurvivorGrid all offseason and can’t wait to share it with you