the Swami Score was developed over years of tinkering by @fracticat to optimize for limiting drawdowns in tradable securities
Take our transparent risk-management tool for spin, pit it against your furu's black box elixir and let us know how it goes
https://t.co/4zsYjESzM4
Big picture: Gasoline and inflation buy signals (UGA/INFL); IWN pays out
EQUITIES: Big rotation reversal in beta this week (SPLV up big, SPHB down big). Be patient next week, buy signals are setting up across the board on strong assets
CURRENCIES: Dollar breaks out to a new high
BONDS: Corporate bonds now join US treasuries… avoid all
COMMODITIES: Now that the war is ~3 months old, oil quietly flips to bearish trend (but floating right near its trend line and can easily flip back). Gold drops to new lows, UGA is holding in its buy zone
CRYPTO: Back to a straight avoid. BTC is flashing a long term fractal oversold for a quick trade, but the trend is overwhelmingly down. Expect fresh lower lows in the near future
Big picture: Gasoline and inflation buy signals (UGA/INFL); IWN pays out
EQUITIES: IWN hits top of range; rotating into INFL is the play this week
CURRENCIES: Dollar holds bullish trend
BONDS: No change
COMMODITIES: Gold continues to consolidate on falling vol; gasoline (UGA) setting up a buy signal here; battery metals (SETM) starting to pay out
CRYPTO: Bitcoin back to bearish trend… needs to hold its low this week else last week’s buy signal was premature
Big picture: Now or never for bitcoin
EQUITIES: IWN close to paying out here as it approaches top of range; no new major signals in equity space
COMMODITIES: Gold continues to consolidate. If this is “bearish trend” for gold, there’s an explosive upside move on the other side of this consolidation. Wait and watch
CURRENCIES: Dollar holds bullish trend
BONDS: No change
CRYPTO: Despite neutral trend, Bitcoin is clearly holding a higher low in an early uptrend here; this is as appealing an entry as we are likely to get. Long IBIT $42.96
Big picture: Dollar breaks out; gold breaks down; buy signals in IWN and SETM
EQUITIES: Still no meaningful decline; INFL taps top then bottom of range; new buy signal possible this week; small cap value buy signal here (IWN)
CRYPTO: Bitcoin neutral here but holding a higher low; low range add levels riskier in neutral trend, but entry here looks appealing
COMMODITIES: Oil remains bullish trend; gold bearish; battery metals buy signal here (SETM)
CURRENCIES: Dollar pays out, higher high confirms bullish trend
BONDS: No change: corp bonds bullish but treasuries bearish
Big picture: Bitcoin remains bullish; INFL buy signal
EQUITIES: Another all-time high; waiting and watching for low-risk entry; no new fractal reversals on indexes. INFL buy signal
CRYPTO: Back to bullish trend; higher low above trend (BTC $79214) would be a key entry signal
CURRENCIES: Dollar hovering around trend, higher low is key this week
COMMODITIES: oil remains bullish trend; gold bearish but fighting near trend line
BONDS: No change: corp bonds bullish but treasuries bearish
Big picture: No clear signals emerging this week, more of the same
EQUITIES: Continue to blow through their fractal reversal signals to new highs, offering no long-side plays and no clear reversals. Holding longs is the only play
CURRENCIES: Dollar breaks its trend again, but volatility is falling. It continues to consolidate around its trendline and may break higher
CRYPTO: Gaining strength + momentum. Still needs a higher low above its trend, but $62k is looking more and more like a cyclical bottom
COMMODITIES: No real play here. Oil refuses to go lower; gold refuses to go higher. XAU/USD is now firmly bearish trend and needs to get above $4713 to get interesting again
BONDS: Corporate bonds remain appealing but long duration remains trash
Big picture: Oil and USD regain their trends; gold breaks again; equities refuse to slow down; no action here but waiting and watching for entries
EQUITIES: Have blown through their fractal reversal signals to new highs; no long-side action here—expect a consolidation or pause as the best case scenario over the next 1-2 weeks. Swami Add levels will come slowly then all at once
BONDS: Corporate bonds showing strength, but USTs continue to lag (no action)
COMMODITIES: Oil regains its trend; gold breaks its trend. No action here
CRYPTO: Bitcoin has fought all the way back to its trendline and broken its bearish trend. If it can form a higher low on the next decline, it’ll be the optimal point to get back in
CURRENCIES: USD regains its trend alongside gold. USD remains a compelling long
Big picture: All trends reverse; no action here but patience
EQUITIES: Blow through the tops of their ranges and flashing/stacking overbought reversal signals. No action here but waiting for a dip to Swami Add levels; downside far outweighs upside at these levels
CURRENCIES: US Dollar now fighting to hold its trend on equity reversal
BONDS: Remain an avoid
COMMODITIES: Also reverse course (ie, crude). Metals are fractal overbought here as well, while gold fights to regain its bullish trend and hovers above its trendline of XAU/USD $4737.62
CRYPTO: The only outright short here as crypto hits the top of its range in a confirmed downtrend
Net net: No action on the long side from here; need to wait for better setup
Big picture: Dollar buy signal
CURRENCIES: US Dollar corrects in a strong uptrend = buy signal at Swami Add Level
EQUITIES: Top end of range for some names (eg, momentum). Good spot to sell/trim
CRYPTO: Remains bearish trend
COMMODITIES: Gold fighting near trendline; oil remains strong (geopolitical risk not over yet)
BONDS: Remain an avoid
Big picture: Fractal reversal indicates a potential shorter term pause in longer term downswing; small/mid cap value outperforms large cap growth
CURRENCIES: US Dollar remains strong against all forex
COMMODITIES: No slowdown for oil wrecking ball long-term, but short-term pause in energy; gold still failing to regain bullish trend, hovering near key level (~$4723 XAU/USD); clear split — USD-linked commodities (energy) still lead longer-term, while precious metals / FX-linked assets lag
CRYPTO: Consolidating in a bearish trend; potential bottoming process, but still not actionable
EQUITIES: Fractal reversal triggered late last week → counter-trend bounce; small/mid cap value outperforming large cap growth, while defensive / inflation-linked exposures remain structurally favored
BONDS: No change — remain an avoid
BIG PICTURE: Oil leads, gold lags — dollar firm, bonds weak, equities still fragile
COMMODITIES: Gold hasn’t regained bullish trend (careful on buying dips; bottom falling out on Add Level: GLD $375.31) Oil paused on reversal signal but making new near-term highs (close to near-term upside; trim level on USO $126.85)
CURRENCIES: The dollar continues to firm (US Dollar Swami Score ~55). Upside may be limited near-term, but the bigger message is that a stronger USD is a headwind for risk assets and commodities priced in dollars — stay cautious on non-dollar exposure until this weakens again.
CRYPTO: No change. Still not an area of focus — signal strength remains weak and the trend backdrop is not something we want to fight. Avoid until the tape improves.
BONDS: No change — Treasuries remain one of the weakest areas on the board (US Treasury Swami Score ~-61)
EQUITIES: no major changes; fractal oversold reversals still mounting. IWN strengthened week-over-week, but all other major equity indexes/ETFs flat to down
BIG PICTURE: Bear Market In Play
CRYPTO: When crypto is the strrongest signal, you know it’s bleak (remains an avoid)
COMMODITIES: Gold is triggering a fractal reversal AND breaking trend here. This is the only play worth considering this week. Everything else is head for the exits, especially on bounces
CURRENCIES: Dollar strengthening (in a bad way). Would be a buy signal at UUP $27.43
EQUITIES: SPY breaks trend. Last time this happened? March 4, 2025 followed by a 15% drop
BONDS: Trash. Avoid
BIG PICTURE:
COMMODITIES: Close enough buy signal in Gold to Swami Add level of $4941 on XAU/IUSD (bullish trend firmly intact); oil pauses as flagged last week; buy signal in DBB here
CRYPTO: Still an avoid, BTC at the top of its bearish trend range
CURRENCIES: Dollar continues to strengthen against forex
EQUITIES: Bearish signals abound; caution needed on buy signals emerging as they’re coupled with increased volatility, signal weakening, and trend breaks across the board
-> We’d recommend getting OUT of Small Cap Val (IWN) here given IWM trend break
-> Equities more broadly not far behind: key trend level this week is SPY $656.40
-> A fractal oversold level at or near trend could be a massive short-term buy opportunity, but bearish signals are all pointing in the same direction
BONDS: Clear bearish trend across the entire asset class AVOID
Big picture: Risk is getting more defensive — credit is weakening, the dollar is strengthening, and oil is flashing overbought
COMMODITIES: Long-term fractal overbought for oil; key gold buy level this week: $452.69 on GLD
EQUTIES: Defensive sectors/factors lighting up (XLRE, XLU, SPLV); SPY approaching negative 3M price momentum (caution signal)
CURRENCIES: Dollar rips through trend resistance; clear bullish trend but waiting for higher low
BONDS: Clear trend break on HYG; TLT flashing a trend break here as well
CRYPTO: Still an avoid
Big picture: Buy signals in IWN and HYG
BONDS: Buy signal in high yield (HYG): low end of range, low volatility, confirmed uptrend; short-term fractal overbought reversal in TLT
EQUITIES: Buy signal in small cap value (IWN)
COMMODITIES: No new action; new 1M high for gold on falling volatility
CURRENCIES: USD is approaching its trendline (DXY $98.10)
CRYPTO: Still firmly bearish
Big picture: Equities hold steady; gold reaffirms bullish trend on falling volatility; possible bond buy incoming
BONDS: Pausing on last week’s fractal overbought signal; a dip and hold back at trend would be an ideal buy signal (~$88.70 on TLT)
EQUITIES: Holding steady; expect a bounce-back in bombed-out software, especially if a long-term fractal reversal triggers in XSW
CURRENCIES: Dollar confirmed bearish trend; other currencies all looking bullish
COMMODITIES: Gold reaffirms bullish trend with falling volatility; oil just missed hitting its add level last week, already ripping higher
CRYPTO: Firmly bearish; avoid
Big picture: SPY buy signal (+ potentially oil this week); bonds finally break out
EQUITIES: SPY buy signal here despite high volatility in underlying sectors (ie, Software). Safer/lower beta names is the play here
BONDS: Finally breaking out, but overbought on this first move. Wait for the dip and confirmed bullish trend
CURRENCIES: Dollar still confirmed bearish
COMMODITIES: Oil buy signal at USO $74.97 (but be careful on trend break <$61.75 on Crude futures); Gold continues to consolidate in a bullish formation
CRYPTO: Remains an avoid
Big picture: VIGI pays out; equities weaken; gold/oil consolidate
EQUITIES: VIGI immediately hits the top end of its range this week; more names weakening here so the play remains conservative
COMMODITIES: Confirmed bearish trends broadly; gold holds up within a consolidating range
CURRENCIES: DXY bouncing within a confirmed bearish trend (avoid)
BONDS: Still confirmed bearish trend (avoid)
CRYPTO: Intermediate-term fractal reversal for BTC this week, still a confirmed bearish trend
Big picture: Gold plummets after parabolic rise; next buy setting up; VIGI a buy here
•EQUITIES: A few signals strengthening on this dip; VIGI has the right risk profile for this environment
•COMMODITIES: Fractal reversal signal nails the (temporary) top in gold; oil breaks out hard; confirmed bullish trend
•BONDS: Still confirmed bearish trend (avoid)
•CURRENCIES: Confirmed bearish trend for USD (avoid)
•CRYPTO: Bottom falls out, remains bearish (avoid; however, intermediate term fractal reversal is in play in bitcoin for knife catchers)
Big picture: Long-term fractal overbought reversal in gold; wait-and-watch in equities
EQUITIES: Signals weakening in top names; this week a wait-and-watch setup
COMMODITIES: Ideal profit-taking spot into gold’s parabolic move; oil still failing to hold back above trend
BONDS: Still confirmed bearish trend (avoid)
CURRENCIES: Confirmed bearish trend for USD (avoid)
CRYPTO: Remains bearish (avoid)