Swami Research

actionable portfolio research for RIAs and Advisors ... use us as fish finder for listed securities

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

the Swami Score was developed over years of tinkering by @fracticat to optimize for limiting drawdowns in tradable securities

Take our transparent risk-management tool for spin, pit it against your furu's black box elixir and let us know how it goes

https://t.co/4zsYjESzM4

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Gasoline and inflation buy signals (UGA/INFL); IWN pays out

EQUITIES: Big rotation reversal in beta this week (SPLV up big, SPHB down big). Be patient next week, buy signals are setting up across the board on strong assets

CURRENCIES: Dollar breaks out to a new high

BONDS: Corporate bonds now join US treasuries… avoid all

COMMODITIES: Now that the war is ~3 months old, oil quietly flips to bearish trend (but floating right near its trend line and can easily flip back). Gold drops to new lows, UGA is holding in its buy zone

CRYPTO: Back to a straight avoid. BTC is flashing a long term fractal oversold for a quick trade, but the trend is overwhelmingly down. Expect fresh lower lows in the near future

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Gasoline and inflation buy signals (UGA/INFL); IWN pays out

EQUITIES: IWN hits top of range; rotating into INFL is the play this week

CURRENCIES: Dollar holds bullish trend

BONDS: No change

COMMODITIES: Gold continues to consolidate on falling vol; gasoline (UGA) setting up a buy signal here; battery metals (SETM) starting to pay out

CRYPTO: Bitcoin back to bearish trend… needs to hold its low this week else last week’s buy signal was premature

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Now or never for bitcoin

EQUITIES: IWN close to paying out here as it approaches top of range; no new major signals in equity space

COMMODITIES: Gold continues to consolidate. If this is “bearish trend” for gold, there’s an explosive upside move on the other side of this consolidation. Wait and watch

CURRENCIES: Dollar holds bullish trend

BONDS: No change

CRYPTO: Despite neutral trend, Bitcoin is clearly holding a higher low in an early uptrend here; this is as appealing an entry as we are likely to get. Long IBIT $42.96

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Dollar breaks out; gold breaks down; buy signals in IWN and SETM

EQUITIES: Still no meaningful decline; INFL taps top then bottom of range; new buy signal possible this week; small cap value buy signal here (IWN)

CRYPTO: Bitcoin neutral here but holding a higher low; low range add levels riskier in neutral trend, but entry here looks appealing

COMMODITIES: Oil remains bullish trend; gold bearish; battery metals buy signal here (SETM)

CURRENCIES: Dollar pays out, higher high confirms bullish trend

BONDS: No change: corp bonds bullish but treasuries bearish

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Bitcoin remains bullish; INFL buy signal

EQUITIES: Another all-time high; waiting and watching for low-risk entry; no new fractal reversals on indexes. INFL buy signal

CRYPTO: Back to bullish trend; higher low above trend (BTC $79214) would be a key entry signal

CURRENCIES: Dollar hovering around trend, higher low is key this week

COMMODITIES: oil remains bullish trend; gold bearish but fighting near trend line

BONDS: No change: corp bonds bullish but treasuries bearish

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: No clear signals emerging this week, more of the same

EQUITIES: Continue to blow through their fractal reversal signals to new highs, offering no long-side plays and no clear reversals. Holding longs is the only play

CURRENCIES: Dollar breaks its trend again, but volatility is falling. It continues to consolidate around its trendline and may break higher

CRYPTO: Gaining strength + momentum. Still needs a higher low above its trend, but $62k is looking more and more like a cyclical bottom

COMMODITIES: No real play here. Oil refuses to go lower; gold refuses to go higher. XAU/USD is now firmly bearish trend and needs to get above $4713 to get interesting again

BONDS: Corporate bonds remain appealing but long duration remains trash

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Oil and USD regain their trends; gold breaks again; equities refuse to slow down; no action here but waiting and watching for entries

EQUITIES: Have blown through their fractal reversal signals to new highs; no long-side action here—expect a consolidation or pause as the best case scenario over the next 1-2 weeks. Swami Add levels will come slowly then all at once

BONDS: Corporate bonds showing strength, but USTs continue to lag (no action)

COMMODITIES: Oil regains its trend; gold breaks its trend. No action here

CRYPTO: Bitcoin has fought all the way back to its trendline and broken its bearish trend. If it can form a higher low on the next decline, it’ll be the optimal point to get back in

CURRENCIES: USD regains its trend alongside gold. USD remains a compelling long

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: All trends reverse; no action here but patience

EQUITIES: Blow through the tops of their ranges and flashing/stacking overbought reversal signals. No action here but waiting for a dip to Swami Add levels; downside far outweighs upside at these levels

CURRENCIES: US Dollar now fighting to hold its trend on equity reversal

BONDS: Remain an avoid

COMMODITIES: Also reverse course (ie, crude). Metals are fractal overbought here as well, while gold fights to regain its bullish trend and hovers above its trendline of XAU/USD $4737.62

CRYPTO: The only outright short here as crypto hits the top of its range in a confirmed downtrend

Net net: No action on the long side from here; need to wait for better setup

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Dollar buy signal

CURRENCIES: US Dollar corrects in a strong uptrend = buy signal at Swami Add Level

EQUITIES: Top end of range for some names (eg, momentum). Good spot to sell/trim

CRYPTO: Remains bearish trend

COMMODITIES: Gold fighting near trendline; oil remains strong (geopolitical risk not over yet)

BONDS: Remain an avoid

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Fractal reversal indicates a potential shorter term pause in longer term downswing; small/mid cap value outperforms large cap growth

CURRENCIES: US Dollar remains strong against all forex

COMMODITIES: No slowdown for oil wrecking ball long-term, but short-term pause in energy; gold still failing to regain bullish trend, hovering near key level (~$4723 XAU/USD); clear split — USD-linked commodities (energy) still lead longer-term, while precious metals / FX-linked assets lag

CRYPTO: Consolidating in a bearish trend; potential bottoming process, but still not actionable

EQUITIES: Fractal reversal triggered late last week → counter-trend bounce; small/mid cap value outperforming large cap growth, while defensive / inflation-linked exposures remain structurally favored

BONDS: No change — remain an avoid

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

BIG PICTURE: Oil leads, gold lags — dollar firm, bonds weak, equities still fragile

COMMODITIES: Gold hasn’t regained bullish trend (careful on buying dips; bottom falling out on Add Level: GLD $375.31) Oil paused on reversal signal but making new near-term highs (close to near-term upside; trim level on USO $126.85)

CURRENCIES: The dollar continues to firm (US Dollar Swami Score ~55). Upside may be limited near-term, but the bigger message is that a stronger USD is a headwind for risk assets and commodities priced in dollars — stay cautious on non-dollar exposure until this weakens again.

CRYPTO: No change. Still not an area of focus — signal strength remains weak and the trend backdrop is not something we want to fight. Avoid until the tape improves.

BONDS: No change — Treasuries remain one of the weakest areas on the board (US Treasury Swami Score ~-61)

EQUITIES: no major changes; fractal oversold reversals still mounting. IWN strengthened week-over-week, but all other major equity indexes/ETFs flat to down

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

BIG PICTURE: Bear Market In Play

CRYPTO: When crypto is the strrongest signal, you know it’s bleak (remains an avoid)

COMMODITIES: Gold is triggering a fractal reversal AND breaking trend here. This is the only play worth considering this week. Everything else is head for the exits, especially on bounces

CURRENCIES: Dollar strengthening (in a bad way). Would be a buy signal at UUP $27.43

EQUITIES: SPY breaks trend. Last time this happened? March 4, 2025 followed by a 15% drop

BONDS: Trash. Avoid

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

BIG PICTURE:
COMMODITIES: Close enough buy signal in Gold to Swami Add level of $4941 on XAU/IUSD (bullish trend firmly intact); oil pauses as flagged last week; buy signal in DBB here

CRYPTO: Still an avoid, BTC at the top of its bearish trend range

CURRENCIES: Dollar continues to strengthen against forex

EQUITIES: Bearish signals abound; caution needed on buy signals emerging as they’re coupled with increased volatility, signal weakening, and trend breaks across the board

-> We’d recommend getting OUT of Small Cap Val (IWN) here given IWM trend break
-> Equities more broadly not far behind: key trend level this week is SPY $656.40
-> A fractal oversold level at or near trend could be a massive short-term buy opportunity, but bearish signals are all pointing in the same direction

BONDS: Clear bearish trend across the entire asset class AVOID

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Risk is getting more defensive — credit is weakening, the dollar is strengthening, and oil is flashing overbought

COMMODITIES: Long-term fractal overbought for oil; key gold buy level this week: $452.69 on GLD

EQUTIES: Defensive sectors/factors lighting up (XLRE, XLU, SPLV); SPY approaching negative 3M price momentum (caution signal)

CURRENCIES: Dollar rips through trend resistance; clear bullish trend but waiting for higher low

BONDS: Clear trend break on HYG; TLT flashing a trend break here as well

CRYPTO: Still an avoid

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Buy signals in IWN and HYG

BONDS: Buy signal in high yield (HYG): low end of range, low volatility, confirmed uptrend; short-term fractal overbought reversal in TLT

EQUITIES: Buy signal in small cap value (IWN)

COMMODITIES: No new action; new 1M high for gold on falling volatility

CURRENCIES: USD is approaching its trendline (DXY $98.10)

CRYPTO: Still firmly bearish

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Equities hold steady; gold reaffirms bullish trend on falling volatility; possible bond buy incoming

BONDS: Pausing on last week’s fractal overbought signal; a dip and hold back at trend would be an ideal buy signal (~$88.70 on TLT)

EQUITIES: Holding steady; expect a bounce-back in bombed-out software, especially if a long-term fractal reversal triggers in XSW

CURRENCIES: Dollar confirmed bearish trend; other currencies all looking bullish

COMMODITIES: Gold reaffirms bullish trend with falling volatility; oil just missed hitting its add level last week, already ripping higher

CRYPTO: Firmly bearish; avoid

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: SPY buy signal (+ potentially oil this week); bonds finally break out

EQUITIES: SPY buy signal here despite high volatility in underlying sectors (ie, Software). Safer/lower beta names is the play here

BONDS: Finally breaking out, but overbought on this first move. Wait for the dip and confirmed bullish trend

CURRENCIES: Dollar still confirmed bearish

COMMODITIES: Oil buy signal at USO $74.97 (but be careful on trend break <$61.75 on Crude futures); Gold continues to consolidate in a bullish formation

CRYPTO: Remains an avoid

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: VIGI pays out; equities weaken; gold/oil consolidate

EQUITIES: VIGI immediately hits the top end of its range this week; more names weakening here so the play remains conservative

COMMODITIES: Confirmed bearish trends broadly; gold holds up within a consolidating range

CURRENCIES: DXY bouncing within a confirmed bearish trend (avoid)

BONDS: Still confirmed bearish trend (avoid)

CRYPTO: Intermediate-term fractal reversal for BTC this week, still a confirmed bearish trend

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Gold plummets after parabolic rise; next buy setting up; VIGI a buy here
•EQUITIES: A few signals strengthening on this dip; VIGI has the right risk profile for this environment
•COMMODITIES: Fractal reversal signal nails the (temporary) top in gold; oil breaks out hard; confirmed bullish trend
•BONDS: Still confirmed bearish trend (avoid)
•CURRENCIES: Confirmed bearish trend for USD (avoid)
•CRYPTO: Bottom falls out, remains bearish (avoid; however, intermediate term fractal reversal is in play in bitcoin for knife catchers)

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

@InverseJCramer

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Did you sell some gold on Monday? $GLD

[Swami Research @SwamiResearch]

Big picture: Long-term fractal overbought reversal in gold; wait-and-watch in equities

EQUITIES: Signals weakening in top names; this week a wait-and-watch setup

COMMODITIES: Ideal profit-taking spot into gold’s parabolic move; oil still failing to hold back above trend

BONDS: Still confirmed bearish trend (avoid)

CURRENCIES: Confirmed bearish trend for USD (avoid)

CRYPTO: Remains bearish (avoid)