Synthdata

Succeed in Financial Markets with Predictive Intelligence on Equities, Crypto and Commodities | Bittensor SN50

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

It took us 7 weeks to 10X on @Polymarket
6 days to 20X.
you do the math.

📅 Started: Oct 3
💰 Initial Capital: $3K

Powered by Synth forecasts.
https://t.co/JFP6ra4fML

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

In the coming months you will see multiple teams launching:

multivariate markets
distribution markets
volatility markets
event-conditioned markets

The common bottleneck is pricing.

Once markets move beyond simple binaries, they need a live engine that can estimate the probability of many future states at once.

Synth is that engine

[Sami Kassab @Old_Samster]

Good to see Synth get the recognition it deserves!

• On 15 min markets: Synth correctly called direction 86% of the time vs 57% for Polymarket
• On hourly markets, Synth achieved 75% accuracy vs to 62% for Polymarket

[James Ross @jamesrosst]

The core idea here is replacing debt-backed synthetic assets with portfolios of options that replicate index exposure while avoiding liquidation risk.

Instead of borrowing against collateral, you construct payoff surfaces using options. @SynthdataCo as a future state-price engine enables products like this to scale by optimising rebalancing and hedging.

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

@Kunallegendd Love this! Thanks for the excellent analysis

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

"Across 374 weekday 15 minute markets, Synth correctly called direction 86% of the time versus 57% for Polymarket. Across 95 hourly markets, Synth achieved 75% accuracy compared to 62% for Polymarket."

Appreciate the detailed analysis @Kunallegendd

[Kunal Doshi @Kunallegendd]

One of our theses this year was that as prediction markets mature and competition intensifies at the base layer, the most attractive opportunities will shift toward the applications and intelligence built on top. One project I have been watching closely is @SynthdataCo

Synth displays expected outcomes for hourly and daily event contracts alongside the implied market probability, allowing users to compare market pricing against real time forecasts. Those forecasts are generated by the top 10 models from a pool of more than 200 competing on Bittensor.

To test the product, I tracked every BTC up/down market on @Polymarket over nine weekdays. Both Synth and Polymarket probabilities were recorded at the same moment: three minutes into each 15 minute market and 15 minutes into each hourly market. The forecasts were then compared against the final outcome.

Across 374 weekday 15 minute markets, Synth correctly called direction 86% of the time versus 57% for Polymarket. Across 95 hourly markets, Synth achieved 75% accuracy compared to 62% for Polymarket.

Notably, Synth's edge widened significantly at shorter time horizons, posting a 29 percentage point advantage in 15 minute markets versus a 13 percentage point advantage in hourly markets.

The disagreement data was even more interesting than the headline numbers. In 46% of 15 minute markets, Synth and Polymarket pointed in opposite directions. In every single case, Synth forecast DOWN while Polymarket implied UP. Synth was correct 82% of the time in these disagreements, suggesting the market was consistently underpricing short term downside during the sample period.

The bigger opportunity here may not just be for directional trading but especially for market making. A market maker armed with a calibrated probability edge can quote tighter two way prices, hold less inventory and capture more volume without taking on the same adverse selection risk.

As the base layer becomes commoditized, the intelligence layer becomes the moat. Synth may be an early example of what that future looks like.

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

Synth LLM predicts a 12.3% chance that $HYPE @HyperliquidX hits $75 in the next 24 hours

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

Yea, Synth LLM can also price parlays ...

[Y Combinator @ycombinator]

Totalis (@totalistrading) lets users parlay on anything.

Combine multiple event markets into one trade across politics, crypto, stocks, sports, weather, and macro. Starting with parlays, expanding into structured products.

Congrats on the launch, @ImTheBigP & @ericliujt!

https://t.co/1rSLysBXA2

[Boomer @0xBoomz]

James Ross' (@jamesrosst) Bittensor Subnet (SN50) @SynthdataCo built a probability engine so traders can stop guessing prices and start modeling probabilistic outcomes about the future.

"Synth is a machine learning competition which gets participants to model volatility, like upcoming forecasted volatility, so you can understand how or the range certain assets will trade in over short time periods."

"Synth helps agents, LLMs, traders, hedge funds answer the question: what's the probability BTC will trade between $60K and $100K over the next day? Or what's the probability it trades between $80,000 and $82,500 at exactly 10:32 AM tomorrow morning?"

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

Options maxxxing Iron condor BTC strategy on @DeribitOfficial with @SynthdataCo LLM

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

Bittensor is the olympics of intelligence
Synth is the olympics of financial intelligence

[Rhea @rheacts]

"You do not find the fastest runner by hiring people who look fast. You hold the Olympics"

James Ross of SynthData on why Bittensor turned global ML competition into the only real way to model volatility

"We followed Kaggle and Numerai for years. The best person at any task is not in London, New York or Dubai. They are somewhere else entirely. You only find them with an open global competition"

"Modeling volatility needs many different models and many different ML approaches. You combine them into a meta model that captures the uniqueness of financial markets. No single team can build that alone"

"Bittensor lets you define a goal with an incentive mechanism. We have paid out $3 million to participants from everywhere in the world. That makes us one of the highest paying data science competitions on the planet"

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

Options maxxxing Iron condor BTC strategy on @DeribitOfficial with @SynthdataCo LLM

[James Ross @jamesrosst]

It’s super insightful to see how traders prompt the LLM and it’s insane how good Synths responses are

I really recommend you check it out

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

UPDATE: Synth LLM is now available to users on the free plan for a limited time

Access the world's most accurate volatility forecasts for $BTC, $SPY, $NVDA, hyperliquid:native and many more

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

Today we’re launching Synth LLM for Traders on
@Polymarket @trylimitless @HyperliquidX @DeribitOfficial and more

This is the first ever LLM-native interface for turning live Monte Carlo forecasts into custom statistics, charts & example trades

QT for a chance to win Pro access

[Exploit Summit @ExploitSummit]

Most price prediction systems give you one number. SN50 gives you the full probability distribution - every possible price path, weighted by likelihood.

Decentralized AI miners compete to model realistic price dynamics for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XAU. The network generates synthetic data that trains better AI agents and powers smarter trading decisions.

This is how you quantify uncertainty at scale.

Proud to have @synthdataco as a Silver Sponsor of Exploit Summit.

[James Ross @jamesrosst]

You can earn more than the base salary listed here by competing on @SynthdataCo

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

See dashboards at

https://t.co/OwOr7rQ1sb

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

Updates to miner dashboards and analytics tools now live

Participants in the world's highest paying quant competition now have access to even deeper per asset analysis to help boost performance

[James Ross @jamesrosst]

Insane early response to our quantitive inference engine for probabilistic market intelligence

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

Today we’re launching Synth LLM for Traders on
@Polymarket @trylimitless @HyperliquidX @DeribitOfficial and more

This is the first ever LLM-native interface for turning live Monte Carlo forecasts into custom statistics, charts & example trades

QT for a chance to win Pro access

[Synthdata @SynthdataCo]

This is an announcement of an announcement

New product launching tomorrow...