T0MaX

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

#Nonfarmpayrolls -23K
#UnevmploymentRate 4.1%
Data is showing a more and more dovish sign than ever, Crazy numbers!

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

@Balloon_Capital 这指标太逗了，不过真有效

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

More than 360,000 margin accounts were forced into liquidation in Korea, per Citi.

62% of those wiped out were reportedly under the age of 35.

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

So curious about how many dude have been liquidated by this dramatic Red waterfall $QQQ $NDX $SPY 🤣

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

@hexiecs 第一次想买的时候我说再等等，等回调。等真回调了我说不可能调这么点。就这么循环往复，从25年sndk才60多的时候，脑子里一直重复这个步骤一直到他快两千。一次没买过。。。。。

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

@deviousjames555 @AskRobinhood @RobinhoodApp Nice! Scare the s out of m

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

My Robinhood app & Legend are down; I have positions to sell. Please be notified and fix this problem ASAP. Are you responsible for any technical loss? @AskRobinhood @RobinhoodApp

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

@stockplaymaker1 same to me

[Jensen Huang @JensenHuang]

For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.

AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.

Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.

The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.

https://t.co/AUKzoQ5Ikb

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

Someone knew it! LOL

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Kimi K3 may be an important inflection point for AI. Potentially negative for Anthropic and OpenAI while being net positive for essentially every other company in the world. I mean that very literally. Although the real “Sputnik moment” would be an open-source frontier model that was also token efficient unlike Kimi K3 which is 50-70% more expensive to run than GPT 5.6 per Artificial Analysis.

Rationale:

A world where there are only 2-3 dominant frontier labs with 90% inference margins is net negative for every other layer while being awesome for those 2-3 labs. Those labs would become monopsonies for power, data centers, semiconductors and hyperscalers and would obviously vertically integrate over time into all those layers while also completely subsuming the application/software layers. 

Anything that lowers margins and increases competition at the model layer is good for every other AI layer: power, semiconductors, hyperscalers, neoclouds and yes even software.

This is why Jensen is so supportive of open-source. An open-source model requires the *exact* same amount of compute to run as a closed frontier model of similar size and architecture. Kimi K3 is roughly the same price as GPT 5.6 Terra on a per token basis, which actually suggests that it is less computationally efficient as I am sure that GPT 5.6 is priced to a higher margin than K3. And given that K3 is a token wastrel, i.e. token inefficient, it is significantly more expensive per task than GPT 5.6 and Grok 4.5, which are much more token efficient. Cost per token and token efficiency (i.e. intelligence density per token) are the drivers of intelligence per unit of cost. The winning AI companies will be those that offer the most intelligence per $ over time.

Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at every part of the infrastructure layer and is a godsend for software. This can happen either through open-source models like K3 at the frontier *or* having a vertically integrated model company like Meta, SpaceX or Google at the frontier. Both outcomes result in a lower margin % at the model layer as vertically integrated model companies don’t really care where the margin $ come from. This is why it was so painful for OpenAI and Anthropic when Google was right there with them from a model competitiveness perspective and why Grok 4.5 and Muse 1.1 were just as important as Kimi K3.

The reason Kimi K3 is only *potentially* negative for Anthropic and OpenAI is 1) the @ericvishria point that the Claude and ChatGPT products and harnesses may be more important than their models today and 2) the hypothesis that they have much more advanced model checkpoints internally that are already being used for RSI. In the latter scenario, reaching RSI even a few months ahead of other labs might be enough to cement a permanent lead.

Time will tell on both points. And likely fairly quickly.

Caveat would be that since Kimi K3 is not token efficient and thereby actually more expensive than ChatGPT 5.6, we may need to see a more token efficient open-source model at the frontier or see Grok 5/Composer 4/Muse 2 at multiple points on the Pareto frontier for this potential risk to Anthropic and OpenAI to play out. And I am sure they will both vertically integrate as quickly as possible while continuing the product/harness strength they have shown over the last 8 months.

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ Whoever persists, congratulations! Now you can take a breath.

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

你又何必自责自己选股的眼光呢？短期看下来，这是一个连Warren Buffett都亲自买的股票都会下跌的时期。你的懊恼不是因为没有买到好的股票，你的懊恼是因为你没有控制好仓位，仅此而已。

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

现在很有意思的现象是， $VIX 几乎没怎么动， $SPX $QQQ $SQQQ 价格几乎没有变化，但是光模块，内存和半导体板块已经跌到爆炸了。这两天不知道有多少人爆仓了。

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

@Balloon_Capital 这是真神人，关注他就是为了每日一乐

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

撑过这周，大盘将会在下周变盘。保持耐心，控制好仓位。 $SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

$ASML $TSM Earnings reports exhibit a redirect headwind of the overall Q2. It looks like the stock market is heading from the semiconductor narrative towards defensive sectors. Let's wait to see how $NFLX will confirm this narrative or not.

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

@hanking66 确认过眼神，沃什是对的人

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

Inflation Rate: 3.5%, let's rock the Market 🚀🚀🚀

[T0MaX @T0MaX831]

$IBM 's preliminary Q2 22026 revenue rose 1% to $17.2 billion with GAAP gross margin down 100 bps to 57.7% and GAAP diluted EPS down 2% to $2.27, sending shares down 17% in pre-market trading.
Although Trump had signed multiple Quantum Investment Contracts, the actual revenue from the Quantum sector has yet to be tested.