TruDent99

$open $eose $tao $infq investor

[ssj2abid @ssj2abid]

$OPEN this week's acquisition number is in. 523, down about 1%.

Very happy with this, consistently hitting 500s weekly, very nice.

The running count:
→ 564 → 538 → 529 → 523
→ 3 week avg around 530
→ vs 517 trailing 16-week average previously

Still above trend. And that's the whole point. This number doesn't need to keep climbing to work. Holding the 500s is exactly what the thesis needs.

Quick clarification before the math. These are contracts signed, not homes Opendoor has bought. Some fall through. But this is the pipeline, and as the model matures we can expect numbers like these flowing through to actual sales. Here's what that pace looks like.

The math on 523 a week (963M shares, $93M quarterly costs):

At 6% contribution margin:
→ 523 × 13 = 6,799 homes a quarter
→ × $398K = $2.71B revenue
→ × 6% = $162M contribution
→ − $93M costs = $69M a quarter
→ about $0.29 EPS annualised
→ 30x = $8.64 | 45x = $12.96 | 60x = $17.29

At 7% contribution margin:
→ $2.71B × 7% = $189M contribution
→ − $93M = $96M a quarter
→ about $0.40 EPS
→ 30x = $12.01 | 45x = $18.02 | 60x = $24.03

Net income positive at both margins on this pace alone. Stock's around $4.60.

Now the part that actually matters for the re-rate, and exactly what I'm watching in Q2 earnings: homes need to sell. Inventory has been growing week after week, so I want to see homes sold climb considerably, and contribution margin stick in that 6 to 7% range on average. That combination is what flips the story and re-rates the stock.

Buy side proven. Sell side is the tell, and we find out in Q2 and Q3. 🙏

Patience and conviction.

nfa, long $OPEN 🏠

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@Davo0820 Let’s hope so.

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@Mr_Derivatives It’s been doing better than most mega stocks this week. Crazy

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@Davo0820 Which degen? Love it lol

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@KixtenTrades Price barely moved though.. sigh

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@t_is_for_ton @adambain @nejatian @Opendoor @vu0tran Killing the stock price for sure. But if this works open will have no limit

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@wliang Force buying occurs the Friday before the inclusion date. This already happened Thursday since Friday the market was closed.

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@maelan_sdmr Love the team so difficult to see it pump and all the gains dumps in a day 😂

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@zipcodenetwork @bittingthembits What does zipcode do exactly? Are you an ibuyer?

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@Mr_Derivatives Can you do a chart on this? Thanks 😊

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@Davo0820 @JanErik51430 That’s assuming inclusions of Russell 2000

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@nejatian I’ll exercise some call options to help with the additional vote if needed

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@tradingfinex Show some skins on the game

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@GMN_watch @vigneshka Is he good? Co-founder of a blockchain that shutdown

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@open_army_japan 82 for the culture

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

My $open average is $6.08. What’s yours? Going to pick up some more shares of CSP next week.

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@Davo0820 Only 70-80 million shares?

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@JJSloth2020 @nejatian @GMN_watch Paid by George Noble 😂

[TruDent99 @TDent99]

@SBCoop89 @FedEx @PokemonCenterUS Tip your driver during Xmas