₿ Josh D’Aureo

Founder of

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

Holder conviction peaked months before bitcoin's 2015, 2019 and 2023 breakouts. It peaked again in June.

My Holder Conviction Index tracks holder behavior using coin age and spending activity. It scores each day 0 to 100 against every day since 2014.

Jun 2015: 100. Breakout in Nov 2015, 5 months later.
Aug 2018: 100. Breakout in Apr 2019, 8 months later.
Oct 2022: 98. Breakout in Mar 2023, 5 months later.

Jun 2026: 96. That was 5 months ago.

This is the setup I want to see.

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

@bitbybitbullish very cool, dudes a legend i wonder what he bought?

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

@GeauxSoundMoney wild year in the two year too brother

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

Tesla isn’t trading like normal. This price action has me wondering if there’s something to the Tesla–SpaceX rumors. Far from confirmation, but it has my attention.

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

Sure NVDA is cheap.
But Bitcoin is cheaper.

Buying BTC at 71K here is a gift from God.

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

Apple needs to move fast. Let Siri work with Claude, ChatGPT and Grok to turn calls, voice messages and voicemails into action with an AI agent.

Otherwise, imagine SpaceX bundling cell service with Grok as your personal agent. Apple could lose the very thing it owns: the interface. Feels like @elonmusk could go live with this idea any day now. I have a feeling I would love his product as much as my model Y.

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

Im a simple man, when James speaks I tend to listen

[James Lavish @jameslavish]

Good morning.

I'm not an OG and have not been around the space as long as many others, but Bitcoin sentiment today is just about as bad as I've ever experienced. As bad as the FTX days, worse than the covid wipeout. And yet, here we are with the price hovering just above $70K. We continue on.

Have a great day.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@zerohedge That would be an honor

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

@bullish1312 he doesnt seem like the guy to just call it and retire, maybe tesla scoops him up

[LFGEAUX∞/21M₿ @GeauxSoundMoney]

LFGEAUX @jackmallers channeling my Spirit Animal with Truth Bombs. Endorsed 1000%

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

Bitcoin is up 48% since late 2021. The rest of crypto, excluding stablecoins, is down 45%.

“Higher beta” sounds great until you get the extra risk without the extra return.

How to read it:
• Black traces show BTC price and the rest of crypto’s market cap.
• Blue = Bitcoin trend, left axis.
• Teal = rest-of-crypto trend, right axis.
• Bands show distance from each trend.
• Yellow = BTC above its 200-day average. Purple = below.

Both axes use a log scale: equal spacing means equal percentage changes.

Zoom in. Compare the recoveries.

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

@WOLF_Terminal @LynAldenContact My bitcoin conviction model is saying the same thing

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

Turns out the most important earnings call was “hey babe, can you talk?”

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

@pewresearch I imagine this is just revision to the mean since Covid. But the downtrend will continue overall.

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

@TFTC21 Saylor went from the messiah to Peter. MSTR common holders feel betrayed. If branding matters in digital credit, becoming the villain is a problem.

His only friends now seem to be the institutions buying what he’s selling.

The day greed killed Bitcoin.

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

Bitcoin isn't a tech stock.

But it sure trades like one sometimes.

In April 2022, BTC and the Nasdaq 100 moved in the same direction on 90% of trading days.

Some months? Barely 40%.

I mapped every month since 2020.

The results might surprise you.

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

@KobeissiLetter I’m still trying to figure out if the underlying crypto chains will see any price increase if on-chain equities are built on Ethereum or Solana. So far, it doesn’t look like it’s priced into the cryptocurrency’s cost.

[Steak 'n Shake @SteaknShake]

Hey @HeinzTweets CEO, why do Europeans get the best-quality ketchup while Americans go without?

We tried to bring your superior European recipe (real sugar, incredible taste) to the U.S. Instead, you're pushing "Simply Heinz" — but it just doesn't taste as good.

Heinz is a great American brand. Why are you giving Europe a higher-quality product than the one you offer to your own home country?

Stop forcing us to look elsewhere for a replacement. Do the right thing for American diners. 🇺🇸🍅

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

@FerlitaLoes It might be a good idea to get some in case it catches on?!

[₿ Josh D’Aureo @THQResearch]

Bitcoin is strong because the will of the many is not captured by the strength of a few.