The Investment Log

Digging into the companies behind the tickers. Turning public filings into clear investment analysis.

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

Novo Nordisk $NVO built a $47.5B business on a single molecule. Semaglutide generates over $35B in annual revenue.

Its US patent expires in 2032. Eli Lilly just posted 28.7% weight loss with retatrutide.

Full breakdown: https://t.co/FyKv0nBmpx

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

UnitedHealth Group $UNH reported $447.6B in revenue in 2025. Operating income fell from $32.3B to $19.0B.

Is this a permanent impairment or temporary stumble?

Full breakdown: https://t.co/jgOhqpROST

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@CarsonTalkMoney Can you clarify your $CELH bull thesis? Are you expecting them to grow bigger than Pepsi and Coke?

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

Newmont $NEM is the world's largest gold producer: 5.9M ounces, $22.7B in revenue, $7.3B in free cash flow, and 118M ounces in reserves.

It's also suing its JV partner and entering a self-described trough year.

Full breakdown: https://t.co/KTlbTChnhM

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

Gilead $GILD paid $11B for a near-finished Hepatitis C drug. It peaked at $19B in revenue, then collapsed to $1.3B because patients stopped needing it.

What came next: $30B+ in acquisitions and a HIV franchise at $10B/year in cash flow.

Full breakdown: https://t.co/0qERapGjb4

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@alc2022 I wonder how much https://t.co/WkTUAMYOfS is worth. Maybe an acquisition target for Duolingo

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@TheStockerMan I have a fairly similar take on this that I wrote an article on yesterday: https://t.co/VG39Onki1p

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

(1/9) $DUOL

$DUOL still looks like a real long-term compounder because it has the 3 things you want most in a platform business:

1. user growth,
2. strong engagement,
3. improving monetization on top of a mostly digital product.

The important thing is that 2026 is not the true power year.

Management is deliberately sacrificing some near-term monetization to push harder on user growth, AI features, and product expansion.

They explicitly said they expect 2026 DAU growth around 20%, 2026 revenue growth of 15%–18%, and Adjusted EBITDA margin around 25%, while targeting 100M DAUs by 2028 as the medium-term goal.

Where DUOL stands right now:

For FY2025, Duolingo reported:

- MAUs: 133.1M
- DAUs: 52.7M
- Paid subscribers: 12.2M
- Revenue: $1.038B
- Total bookings: $1.158B
- Subscription bookings: $996.3M
- Adjusted EBITDA: $305.9M
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 29.5%
- Free cash flow: $360.4M
- Gross margin: 72.2%

A few derived ratios from those numbers:

- DAU / MAU = 39.6%
- Paid subs / MAU = 9.2%
- Paid subs / DAU = 23.1%
- Subscription bookings / total bookings = 86.0%
- Revenue per MAU = about $7.80/year
- Revenue per DAU = about $19.69/year

That is why the story is so interesting: They are still monetizing a huge user base pretty lightly relative to how engaged it already is.

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

$TSLA generated $94.8B in revenue last year.

Net income fell 75% from its 2023 peak. The stock trades at 357x trailing earnings.

Things are starting to look a lot like 2018, and you can't put @elonmusk on a balance sheet.

Full breakdown: https://t.co/hE3bzoEYfE

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@CarsonTalkMoney @R1chardMaur1ce Curious to hear which you chose! I haven't researched either yet but definitely would be interesting to see. Third party candidate though, I would suggest considering $KDP. This was one of my earlier analysis so it's a little rough, but I stand by it: https://t.co/pMwPWgUstM

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@MMatters22596 I would add $DUOL to the list

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@YodaStockInvest $DUOL - Unless you think they are going to get fully destroyed by AI. This CEO is not going to lose his advantage that he's built up over the past 15 years. He has a great moat and a great team. https://t.co/VG39Onki1p

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@Richy5033 @alc2022 To be fair, Chess was already a game pre-DUOL

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

In my March 21 $CORT post, I flagged MOMENTUM as key validation.

Delivered: 27.3% hypercortisolism in 1,086 resistant hypertension patients, consistent w/ CATALYST’s 23.8% in hard-to-control T2D.

Larger patient pool ahead?

Original Post: https://t.co/LuSgdjDMp3

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@KennyZufall @yianisz Yeah, it feels like a trap for SoFi to actually take advantage of the buyback though because it locks up their capital. Way better for them to keep their cash and make the share price go up by crushing the earnings expectations. It could work but is just shortsighted

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@KennyZufall @yianisz Right, share buybacks is the obvious solution but like you said, if they are allocating capital with better efficiency, that is actually better for everybody. Share buybacks would make me nervous for a company like this because they should invest that into product development

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@KennyZufall @yianisz I don't necessarily think that SOFI is cheap at these levels, but if you believe that they will keep growing their customer base and expanding their service offerings, it's a great long-term hold.

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@AdityaInvests90 @CarsonTalkMoney @bigbobinvests This is the clear answer

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

Duolingo $DUOL: $1B in revenue, $360M in free cash flow, zero debt, $1.275B in cash.

In February, mgmt voluntarily cut bookings guidance to prioritize user growth over monetization. The stock is down 82% from its high.

Full breakdown: https://t.co/VG39Onki1p

[The Investment Log @TILResearch]

@CarsonTalkMoney What is that as a percentage of your holdings?