Tron Carter

TON618Capital is a Bitcoin fund with a tech research house- We research controversial subjects in finance to provide meaningful, fair, and balanced answers

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

I'm aware MrMusk might be making a nuanced argument - "the lack of aid wasn't the cause of death malaria was the cause"- suspending AID was not an act of murder, but it the people did in fact die bc we (the gov/the people of the USA via election) declined to help them

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

Just watched MrMusk’s interview with The Economist where he combatively claims there were zero deaths from DOGE’s cuts to USAID- Ok?, willing to give genuine benefit of the doubt- Ask Grok for fact check:

Elon Musk has claimed that zero people died as a result of DOGE-related cuts/restructuring of USAID (most recently in a July 2026 Economist interview, where he called reports of deaths “nonsense” and said programs were transferred rather than eliminated). That claim is not supported by available evidence from models, reporting, or public health analyses.
Major cuts hit in early 2025 under the Trump administration, with DOGE involvement in reviewing and terminating a large share of USAID programs (reports commonly cite ~83% of contracts canceled). USAID had been a major funder of health, nutrition, HIV/AIDS (via PEPFAR), malaria, tuberculosis, humanitarian, and water/sanitation work, with substantial activity in sub-Saharan Africa.
What the evidence shows
•Modeling estimates of excess deaths from disrupted programs (HIV treatment interruptions, malaria drugs, therapeutic foods, etc.) are in the hundreds of thousands over the first year. ImpactCounter (models by Boston University epidemiologist Brooke Nichols and collaborators) has been widely cited with figures around 600,000–760,000+ projected/attributable deaths (majority children) from funding discontinuation in key areas. Center for Global Development analyses put potential annual lives lost in ranges such as 500,000–1,000,000+ depending on outlays vs. obligations. Lancet-linked studies estimated large historical lives saved by USAID programs and projected multi-million excess deaths over longer horizons if cuts persisted.
•On-the-ground reports document disruptions: HIV clinic closures or work-stop orders in parts of Africa, spikes in malnutrition deaths (e.g., northern Nigeria), malaria treatment shortages, cholera outbreaks worsened by water/sanitation program stops (e.g., eastern DRC), and similar issues in Somalia, South Sudan, Cameroon, Kenya, and elsewhere. Journalistic accounts (NYT, WaPo, Reuters, PBS, ProPublica, etc.) and former officials (including Atul Gawande) have described specific cases and broader service collapses.
•Africa was heavily exposed because it received a large share of relevant USAID health and humanitarian funding. Some analyses also noted secondary effects like increased conflict risk in high-aid regions.
These are mostly modeled excess deaths (comparing expected mortality under continued funding vs. after cuts) rather than a complete census of named individuals. Causality is complex—local governments, other donors, private foundations (e.g., Gates), supply chains, and disease dynamics all play roles—and not every claimed death is solely attributable to the U.S. cuts. Critics of the high-end numbers argue some models overstate impacts or rely on assumptions that did not fully materialize; Musk and administration figures have said legitimate life-saving work continued via the State Department and that fraud/waste was the primary target.
Still, the consistent finding across multiple independent modeling efforts, disease-specific trackers (HIV, TB, malaria, malnutrition), and field reporting is that the abrupt scale of the cuts produced measurable increases in preventable mortality in affected African settings. The “zero” claim does not hold up against that body of evidence.

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

Hi @Premium @support — Premium subscriber @TON618Capital here.
My research posts are still heavily suppressed. The sensitive content warning cleared on the iOS app but distribution remains broken (most research posts stuck at single-digit to low-20s views). Desktop still shows residual issues.
•Sensitive media setting is unchecked
•No suspensions
•This has been ongoing since May and is killing reach on free long-form research
Please escalate for a full account-level purge of the sensitive/spam flags.
Happy to provide post IDs or screenshots. Thank you.

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

@support following up.

Research posts are still heavily suppressed (mostly single-digit to low-20s views).
Mobile appears clean but overall distribution remains broken.

Please escalate for a full account-level purge of the sensitive content labels and any residual spam/network flags.

Premium account @TON618Capital – no suspensions, sensitive media setting is off.

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

@support

Premium account: @TON618Capital (blue check)

**Issue still active on desktop only**

- Sensitive content warning has been **cleared on the iOS app**
- Same posts **still show the sensitive content warning on desktop Safari** (and the posts I deleted still appear on desktop while correctly showing as deleted on mobile)

I have already:
- Confirmed the “Mark media you post as containing material that may be sensitive” setting is unchecked
- Cleared Safari website data for https://t.co/k09WaqQFsL / https://t.co/kOS9TCpJJ9
- Emptied caches
- Tested in Private window and other browsers

The backend change appears to have propagated to mobile but **not to the desktop web client**. This is continuing to suppress visibility of my research posts.

Please force a full cache/CDN purge for my account on the web client and confirm the sensitive labels are completely removed across all platforms.

Account has no suspensions. Happy to provide specific post IDs or screenshots.

Thank you.

---

Just copy-paste that. It’s clear, factual, and highlights the mobile-vs-desktop discrepancy, which usually gets better attention.

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

@InvestingAddict Perhaps the tech and valuation questions are separate?

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

Has anyone ever asked @SenWarren if she has a philosophy on how she balances American competitiveness against protecting the consumer? It reasons to me that Americans find it hard to believe that the entire Clarity Act is a handout to large corporate incumbents, so what balance can she live with?

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

@support

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

@support the same issue is back today? what is causing this issue? how do I correct? the "sensitive material" box is unchecked and no suspensions show on my account, the account is paid and has a blue check mark

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

“A pound of flesh”
Meaning: a debt or penalty that someone is strictly entitled to demand, but which is cruel or ruinous to actually collect. Usually used with disapproval — “he wants his pound of flesh” implies vindictiveness dressed up as fairness.
Origin: Shakespeare’s The Merchant of Venice. Shylock lends money to Antonio, and the bond states that if the loan isn’t repaid, Shylock may cut a pound of flesh from Antonio’s body. When Antonio defaults, Shylock insists on the letter of the contract rather than accepting repayment.
The famous twist: Portia, disguised as a lawyer, concedes the bond is valid — but points out it grants flesh and not a single drop of blood. Shylock can’t collect without violating the terms, so the demand collapses. That’s why the phrase carries a second flavor too: a claim so literal-minded it defeats itself.
Modern usage tends toward the first sense — a creditor, employer, or negotiator extracting everything they’re owed with no mercy.

Are democrats showing no mercy? Has the POTUS ever shown a negotiation counter party mercy?

was the The Clarity Act just performative all along?

I don’t know if the Republicans have self awareness anymore, but I would tell them they are awfully short on any meaningful wins headed into the mid-terms and this “Save Act” sham just isn’t going to fly

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

The war premium is only showing up in oil but the market reads that as inflation and rate hikes- what about the national debt? Does the current administration have a plan to moderate the Middle East?

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

@BTC_JEDI21 This is possible bc $MSTR is basically like a closed end fund- what if the market valued it as such?

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

@puckrin Maybe bc everyone is wondering if the AI capex burn, generates ROIC?

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

https://t.co/lF18XMYi6j

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

https://t.co/HNLWzd9ysZ

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

Clarity Act draft:

[Eleanor Terrett @EleanorTerrett]

🚨Read the full 616 page bill text here:

https://t.co/qj4mgzKuXT

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

https://t.co/SQZmKAdoCW

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

TON618Capital's substack:
https://t.co/CnfsqVrJkD

[Tron Carter @TON618Capital]

https://t.co/MQAPX865aR