TOS

看看市场动态，关注BTC和股票走势，偶尔记录点想法

[TOS @TOS207]

利好CCL厂商 👀

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

On the supply side, we see materials like T-glass maintain extremely strong demand across both thick products (primarily used in ABF substrates) and thin products (mainly used in BT substrates). Even TSMC underscored the impact of T-glass on CoWoS yield and reliability. We see Chinese vendors are entering aggressively in the T-glass market, expanding supply from a single source (Nittobo) to more than five suppliers, offering a glimmer of hope on the T-glass supply side. Materials are tight beyond just T-glass; substrate-level CCL has been almost solely sourced from Resonac, creating another bottleneck for substrates. Now, we are also seeing EMC make continued progress on substrate CCL. Product shipments could begin as early as 4Q26, with plans to expand its substrate CCL capacity by 100% in 2027, making a new solution available for the substrate CCL. (2/2)

[TOS @TOS207]

芝加哥小麦期货单日涨超5%站上每蒲式耳720美元
创下2023年7月以来的三年多新高
近四周该品种累计涨约8.6%近一年涨幅超过40%

[TOS @TOS207]

@aleabitoreddit 感觉的好😶‍🌫️

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Nike

$NKE on track for its worst year since Michael Jordan announced his first retirement in 1993

[TOS @TOS207]

泡泡玛特的底部越来越高，未来应该需要市场重新认可其他IP孵化的可持续性和第二增长曲线的价值，形成估值逻辑的切换，才能上涨股价

[TOS @TOS207]

终于清爽了

[TOS @TOS207]

我为什么要预测他衰不衰退，消费崩不崩？
这些问题很难预测的

如果消费者真的降级，谁的利润会受伤？
谁的股价已经跌得过头？
谁反而会获得市场份额？
谁拥有足够强的资产负债表熬过去？
谁在经济恢复以后利润弹性最大？
都值得观察

[TOS @TOS207]

值得关注

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Nike

$NKE falls to its lowest price in more than 12 years 📉 📉

[TOS @TOS207]

都在等回到EMA200，真给你们等到了，那才是最危险的时候

[TOS @TOS207]

@Nickxingxing 涨

[TOS @TOS207]

一个工业化需求常态描述成一个自己想象的空间

把需求增长直接等同于长期稀缺，把阶段性供需缺口直接资本化成永久高估值，这是逻辑硬伤

[Ted @TedPillows]

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is not negative for the first time in 3.5 months.

This is good.

[TOS @TOS207]

@wolfyxbt 两手准备🫣

[TOS @TOS207]

美国战略石油储备已经降到1982年以来最低，
手里的“石油保险”越来越薄了
以后如果中东再出点什么事，油价可能更容易突然暴涨，美国能拿出来压价格的库存也少了

而且库存迟早要补，未来补库本身也可能给油价提供支撑
SPR越低，未来油价对供应冲击可能越敏感

如果进一步出现能源危机、财政赤字扩大、美元信用担忧，同时实际利率下降，那黄金和BTC的逻辑也会重新增强

[TOS @TOS207]

国人觉得机器人跑步后空翻没什么用，只关心什么时候去工厂上班

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

After watching clips of China's humanoid Olympics...

I think we're cooked chat.

Still can't believe $GOOGL sold Boston Dynamics, don't think we have another humanoid that can backflip.

[TOS @TOS207]

确实

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

So all of the sudden everyone is bullish on Bitcoin. Perfect

But.
Daily RSI: 80

I will be rational here. You want a dip?

Look at $73,000 & $71,000 as your next attractive buying opportunity.

[TOS @TOS207]

@Nickxingxing 定疼

[TOS @TOS207]

渣打去年预测BTC年底20万
今年年底目标12万
令人忍俊不禁

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

⚡️NEW: Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will hit $126,000 by year-end as spot ETF inflows reach $1.92 billion in five days.

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

iPhone demand in China is around 50M units, and assuming each phone ships with 12GB of RAM, the annual demand is around 600M GB.
CXMT's yields have crossed 90%, and if they are using D1a/G4 (0.32 Gb/mm2), then around 240k wafers will be required, or 20k WPM (G5 is denser, but I don't know the exact density)
CXMT's capacity for DRAM is around 300k WPM and 50k WPM for HBM by YE26, so if CXMT were to supply every single Chinese iPhone, then they would need to dedicate 6.6% of their capacity to Apple
I don't think they will supply every Chinese iPhone, but CXMT could supply 40%-50% by dedicating just 3% of their capacity.