Earl Adamy

Avid student of markets, technical analysis, pickleball, golf & travel. Retired entrepreneur in software, computer services,real estate, and home construction.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@LukeGromen @GhostNumbe50967 I believe China's real motivation with its Taiwan rhetoric has been to encourage the US to waste as much money as possible in defending Taiwan. They have succeeded.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@AndreasSteno What total nonsense. Is the US prepared to sink ships from every country in the world to enforce the blockage or is the US going to place a line of ships end-to-end across the SOH waiting to absorb Iranian missiles?

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@AndreasSteno Thank you for a well-considered, contrarian view. When viewed through the lens of the vast majority of disaffected former US allies and former fence sitters, I see strong incentives for this to happen. Even Europe has carefully avoided taking an anti-Iran position.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@biancoresearch Awesome strategic analysis from a financial analyst!

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@awealthofcs Tech has made strong inroads into the RE business and I've seen no evidence that transaction costs declined. Sophisticated buyers may prefer to pay an hourly rate while newer buyers will prefer to write buyer agent fee into contracts. Costs probably decline by 1-2% overall.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@GlobalProTrader Large specs and commercials were longer/shorter in early 2020 for a 50% rally from 1300. How do you see difference with 2022 and now?

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@biancoresearch Another boost to regionalization of manufacturing. Manufacturers moving production from China to alternative, low-cost parts of Asia have got to be rethinking their strategy. US manufacturing construction should get another boost from this.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@SmartReversals AD volume on SPX & OEX (& NDX to lesser degree) has sharply lagged price all week. It looks like SPX is about out of gas and coming back to 4700-4600 for a refill. Market breadth deteriorating so the next leg up could be a mega-cap blow-off.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@NorthmanTrader We had a fawn catch its head between two balusters on our deck. The fawn was screaming while a full herd of a dozen or so deer watched. I cut one of the balusters to free the fawn and watched as fawn joined the herd which moved away. No "thank you" but if felt good.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@MikeZaccardi The cup and handle in the Nasdaq 100 is nicely confirmed by both volume and cumulative advancing declining volume.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@MikeZaccardi The price side is showing a credible cup and handle; however volume, especially cumulative advancing declining volume is not confirming the c&h at the rim (red line) or the intermediate pivot (blue line). Caution is warranted.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@mnkahn Thank you for the idea. It's not clear why Tech and Discretionary are multiplied and then double divided by Health and Staples. (Tech + Disc) / (Health + Staples) makes a chart worth watching.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@SmartReversals My table showing issues and volume data for S&P 500 includes the first 30 trading days of the rally which began on Oct 13 2021 and the start of the current rally on Oct 27 2023. The first 9 trading days of each rally are outlined in blue. This does not look like a good start.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@SmartReversals Here we are right in the middle of my 4101-4106 which is confluence of 162% Fib swing from the top and 162% retracement of the last rally plus the bottom of the channel. While the decline has turned impulsive and volume remains bearish, let's see if we get a bounce here.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@SmartReversals Percentage moves in price and volume compared. Mid caps looking perky.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@SmartReversals Good work. 4170 looks high probability (and next up) but I'm looking at 4101-4106 which is confluence of 162% Fib swing from the top and 162% retracement of the last rally. That would turn the decline impulsive.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@PhillipsPOBrien Would appreciate a code and will redistribute any I receive. Thank you.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@DanLamothe I am dismayed that a Marine Corps pilot would choose to eject at 2000' over a populated area where civilian casualties could have been very high. He should be severely disciplined regardless of the cause.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@MikeZaccardi Clearest explanation I've seen for the huge lag in E&P stock prices versus the large cash flows they are generating.

[Earl Adamy @TaaStrategies]

@DiMartinoBooth This fits with the post-GD expanding valuation and debt cycles suggesting we have yet to see the end. Combine with the 4th Turning and we have a high probability terminus this decade. Upward sloping regression lines which are so frequently used on LT equity charts must reset.