Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler

Poli-Sci prof spending his time thinking of demography, policy, bad decisions, and hyperbole. My new IR intro book is at:

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@michaeldweiss Guess we will see what matters more. Nolan or the vast right wing engagement bait bots.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@SandyofCthulhu @RigoIrizarry …. It really isn’t and I just can’t tell if this is joke that you’re pretending they don’t exist….

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@SandyofCthulhu @Grownded Nazi take metros just like everyone else. It’s not like these guys are rare they pop up resonantly commonly. Patriot Front isn’t secret.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@SlawomirDebski … seems that this is why Russians win wars. All they need to do is wait for their advisories to fall into infighting and disorganization.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@SandyofCthulhu @HariSel57511397 Might have been beyond this if it wasn’t for the near century of segregation.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@MiaMBloom @Izengabe_ @MTA World Cup’s for the World Cup.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@markklfc He’s very clearly offsides. What’s the issue?

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@DavidDeutschOxf They asked. It’s not a big deal.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@_britmonkey I got Macron which I suppose I’m ok with.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@IanJaeger29 ... What is with these ai bots who hate the founding fathers?

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@SandyofCthulhu @HausenKS It’s silly high but that’s still three times higher then the estimates.

https://t.co/GWgvlhH23t

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@dissidentwest Yes. Countries get ticket allocations.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@SandyofCthulhu @SenWarren …. Even 15% would be a few tens of thousands of college at the state or cc level.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@MarcusGustavus …. Only in fiction.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@sentdefender A lot of money for something that can only fly in America

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@EndWokeness Arrested for attempted murder isn’t spin….

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Imagine you spent 40 years doing the boring, responsible thing.

You opened a 401k at 23. You contributed every paycheck. You ignored the noise. You bought the index because Bogle told you to, because Buffett told you to, because every honest piece of financial advice for 30 years told you the index was the safest, most diversified, most rules-based way to own America.

The whole point was the rules.

The rules said: a company must trade for 12 months before joining the S&P 500. The rules said: it must show four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. The rules existed because in 1999 the index quietly bought a lot of stocks at the top, and pensioners paid the bill.

After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules.

For 23 years, those rules held.

Then SpaceX filed for IPO.

And the rules changed.

The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to.

Except the rules used to say they didn't.

Here's the thought exercise:

If you spend 40 years building a system designed to protect ordinary savers from buying overpriced stocks, and then you waive the protections the moment a sufficiently large stock asks you to, what was the system actually protecting?

Most of investing is about understanding what's a rule and what's a guideline.

A rule binds the rule-maker.

A guideline binds the saver.

You're allowed to find out which is which only after the fact.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@NC_Renic Has nothing to do with universities or ai. If are missing reading comprehension at 18 that’s on high schools and before it’s also been a problem for years.

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@Aviation_Intel Is 20k realistic or only after silly amounts of maintenance costs?

[Tadeusz “Tad” Kugler @TadKugler]

@sbmitche @ass_deans 100 jealous.