Tae Page

Pleb trying to make it. Clueless econ major. Ex tradfi.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

They can keep delaying and jawboning with meaningless headlines to keep markets afloat but there's no deal to be had and the strait isn't opening anytime soon. Once consensus finally comes around to this idea it will be obvious in hindsight.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

Over the years I've also noticed some quant/TA types talk their book and how they disregard macro in their trading and investment decisions. Nothing wrong with this if that's your style and it works for you. But when the market is going against their positions or we have some vol event they start talking macro and justifying why price has moved because of some event or news. More often than not, I'm scratching my head because it doesn't make sense or completely incoherent.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

It's funny that the quant/TA types think macro is for larps whilst macro bros think quant/TA types believe in voodoo. FWIW, I think macro on high time frames still matter for overall asset allocation and risk appetite. Just like any field, you need to filter for what actually contributes to edge vs. noise.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

@BowTiedLobster Second that. I don’t have a problem with the author and seen some good takes and data points over the years.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

It's funny that the quant/TA types think macro is for larps whilst macro bros think quant/TA types believe in voodoo. FWIW, I think macro on high time frames still matter for overall asset allocation and risk appetite. Just like any field, you need to filter for what actually contributes to edge vs. noise.

[Aporia @0xaporia]

I’ve developed a real distaste for macro over the last few months. Macro is the easiest way to look and feel smart while saying nothing. You can talk rates and geopolitics forever and never be wrong, because nobody marks your calls to market. 99% of it is entertainment, and it’s catnip for content creators, because there’s a fresh thing to react to every other day, so they happily feed the cycle. It’s all fugazi.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

@ALeighMP Shut up retard

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

@AlboMP An idiot including the intern that runs this account.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

Hmm 40-50k area seems to be turning into consensus. I don't know if I like that.

[Tony Greer @TgMacro]

What Bitcoin has working against it now is chart symmetry. You don't want to battle chart symmetry. The leg down to $40K is coming.

(I know! I know. I "simply don't understand and haven't DONE THE WORK.")

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

@evrgn11112231 Sounds about right lol

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

https://t.co/Yi8WVSsQTT

[fiskantes ⭐️🩸 @Fiskantes]

Im as libertarian and pro tech and pro business as they come but Im really starting to dislike OpenAI and Anthropic

They use all the knowledge humanity produced (most of it for free) to train their models just to sell it back to people packaged in a chatbox

They sow fear as a marketing strategy - about AI disrupting jobs, hacking us, creating bioweapons, telling everyone society needs to figure out how to deal with the risks and negative externalities

While they pocket lot of the upside and gaining asymmetric power from the ability to gate the access

We really need as many open alternatives with access to compute and models as possible

We need to commoditise AI to a point these guys are able to capture only marginal value while competing in a red ocean

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

@arthur0x Remember the Randi Zuckerberg video from last cycle and we subsequently nuked not long thereafter post the bear market rally. Uncanny timing.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

Crypto getting sold off hard is bullish for tech and AI?
https://t.co/iRvMNTdppS

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Are crypto bros selling bitcoin to buy AI chip stocks and SpaceX?

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

Or maybe BTC is the more honest macro asset and reflects reality vs. mirage of equities at ATHs.

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

The good news is ultimately stocks learned to hit ATHs without asset purchases and near-zero rates (which was pretty unthinkable 10-15yrs ago). Maybe this is a good wake-up all call that bitcoin needs to learn to do same. Can't rely on a sugar Daddy your whole life.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

https://t.co/0KExPb1ixH

[Richard Galvin @richwgalvin]

The market can stay rational longer than DATs can stay stupid

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

It would be better for the long run if they accelerated this.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

@CryptoParadyme Now we just wait for the DATs

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

https://t.co/GQKUHDQ1xr

[Trout @BigTrout300]

Michael Saylor + DATs have left so much supply under water up high.

Why would they not buy 20-40% drawdowns ?

Youd think billion dollar industry would higher intelligent financial analysts

Oh wait

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

https://t.co/C4X08cZjXL

[Risk @ryzzqq]

People hiding in strength are about to get hit by a truck.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

It appears everyone who's still long crypto is hiding out in ZEC and HYPE. Sometimes just sitting in cash is the better option.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

Model update incoming
https://t.co/U1fAogRE8U

[Colossus Capital🗽 @colossus_cap]

JPM on Hormuz:

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

FWIW, I don't think this has changed.

People were too early (including me) in terms of when they expected things to start really impacting supply chains. If you assume the strait will remain (intentionally) closed indefinitely with ongoing negotiations and a "imminent peace deal" as theatre, then it's fairly obvious where this is going.

But we've all moved on from the strait because markets are making new ATHs, war has been priced in, the US is energy independent, semis are in a super cycle and forward earning are going bananas.

The recent announcement in India probably becomes a common sight across other countries as we move into June. Also look at helium imports for Taiwan and Korea which are declining MoM. Until we actually have the "oh shit!" moment markets probably continue to drift higher.

[bubble boi @bubbleboi]

Hindsight is 20/20.

Every idiot on this app talked about helium being in short supply for semis due to the war. But the real issue was much much simpler.. Taiwan and Korea import more than 95% of their energy. They are the biggest customers of gulf oil and gas.

The war just hit the 4 week mark with a ground invasion imminent. There reserves are tapped with no easy supply in sight. The entire gulf cannot supply Korea & Taiwan with the LNG they need. I fully expect rationing of gas and fuel to start by end of April if the war continues.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

This is hilarious but also concerning to say the least. To some extent they probably can't answer truthfully/out of line with consensus but still.

[Tae Page @TaePage_]

@LobsterFinance Good one. One thing I'm keen to see but haven't seen on my feed is a rebuttal which breaks down the assumptions in the Alyosha piece.