Talkot

Bond geek that utilizes equity investments to express interest rate and macroeconomic inefficiencies. Still enjoys a good high risk venture investment as well.

[Talkot @Talkot]

“You can avoid reality, but you can’t avoid the consequences of avoiding reality”—-Ayn Rand

[Talkot @Talkot]

@jimdelisle It’s always darkest before the dawn

[Talkot @Talkot]

Just bot some more $DX @ $10.50 as the 17C was declared last night. Yield is 19.42% and goes $XDIV the 23rd. $IVR $DIV is expected to be declared tomorrow.

[Talkot @Talkot]

I think this makes sense and might be a good "anti AI" investment....

[Raging Capital Ventures @RagingVentures]

Even with the nice move today, $SKIN still only trades for ~4.5x EV/EBITDA.

To potentially regain inclusion in the Russell 2000 (it was recently deleted), I estimate that $SKIN would have to trade for around 5.5x EV/EBITDA, or roughly $23 per share.

That doesn’t seem like a high bar for a stable, capital-light business that should start generating meaningful FCF while also benefiting from two new pending product upgrade cycles.

[Talkot @Talkot]

$FNKO numbers out last night and the 7.26 million share short tried to make it look bad in the after hours. However, the results speak to a solid 2026 and beyond. I remain optimistic for 2027 and hoping for double digits.

[Talkot @Talkot]

I'm calling this the "GRIDLOCK RALLY". Don't know how far it goes but happy to see $DX back @ $11 and $IVR back to $5.60. Next week DX and IVR declare $DIV on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. Expect no change on both.

[Talkot @Talkot]

I'm picking up some $DX in here below $10.65. I have the MTM book about $11.20 and the monthly $DIV will be declared next Tuesday for a 19.18% yield. Admittedly, I'm a bit prejudiced.

[Talkot @Talkot]

@jimdelisle I repeat it's really hard to short a 17% yield and a $DIV that was recently increased.

[Talkot @Talkot]

The $IVR Q3 earnings call this morning was fairly uneventful. Book Value is up to about $7 IMO and the $DIV of 12C was earned in the quarter. There is a 14.5 million share short position. Agency $MREIT stocks offer high yields and $IVR at below 80% of book is a good prospect for 2027

[Talkot @Talkot]

I think you are correct and $IVR has decreased their volatility quite sensibly given the market. Because of their diminutive capital size, the mostly retail investor base has seen fit to sell $IVR. Short Interest is at a record 14.5 million shares. Good luck shorting a 25% $DIV

[Chuckle Fox ReDox @jimdelisle]

I pulled this table out of the $IVR presentation for this morning. I then had my highest paid analyst, Chat, create a comparison back through a little bit of time.

There is some interpolation/extrapolation in comparing the 25/26 disclosures. However, I believe “the point survives the extrapolation” (hit “repost” if you see what I am doing there :-).

I hope a question is asked on the call because this level of improved convexity is so stunning as to be borderline unbelievable.

IF i can be convinced that this is directionally in magnitudinally valid, I’m even more bullish on Agency MREITS than I was.

[Talkot @Talkot]

Salmon fishing today! Watch the $FED for me!

[Talkot @Talkot]

$IVR went XDIV today 12C and the stock is up almost 10C on the day. I have book @ $6.78 and @ $5.50 trading @ 81% of book. Still a good value!

[Talkot @Talkot]

Congratulations to everyone that got the "free" $DX dividend today! The next "free" dividend will be from $IVR on Monday!

[Talkot @Talkot]

$IVR $DIV today was 12C and the stock is up. I like free DIVs. However, short interest is also up from about 10 million shares a month ago to almost 15 million shares today. Earnings are out on this Thursday after the close and conference call Friday. Buckle up!!!

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Ken Griffin on France and socialism…

"Paris should be a real wake up call to every single American. Government spending is 60% of their GDP. It’s the socialist dream the left talks about. That dream comes down to how much you can take from others. It doesn’t belong in America."

[Talkot @Talkot]

Congratulations to everyone that got the "free" $DX dividend today! The next "free" dividend will be from $IVR on Monday!

[Talkot @Talkot]

$FNKO continues going the right direction.

[Talkot @Talkot]

$IVR $DIV comes on Monday next week. I compute a MTM $BV of $6.68 and trading <80% off Book for an Agency $MREIT stock. Realizing that IVR is not "in the $DX, $NLY, $AGNC premium crowd, the 20%+ discount is attractive.

[Talkot @Talkot]

Well maybe I can save on my ridiculous water bills this winter!

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

The world’s leading seasonal forecast models have never shown California this wet, not even in 1997–98.

Europe’s Copernicus climate service (C3S) just released its October outlook, combining 10 seasonal forecast models from 9 weather agencies. The C3S average calls for 156% of normal precipitation statewide this Dec–Feb, the wettest California winter forecast these models have produced, wetter even than their reruns of the 1997–98 super El Niño.

Out of 454 total model members, only 8% show a drier-than-average Dec–Feb statewide, while about 13% are explicitly forecasting California’s wettest winter on record. A record-wet winter is now more likely than a dry one.

This far out, forecasts are about odds, not certainties. But 9 in 10 runs come in at or above normal, and even the driest 10% of runs average 88% of normal. The odds have never leaned this heavily toward an exceptionally wet winter, though a below-normal winter is still possible, but extremely unlikely.

[Talkot @Talkot]

@jimdelisle Just reported and held div @12c

[Talkot @Talkot]

@jimdelisle I’ve been an outright buyer of $IVR and been a bit early but have a full position now.

[Talkot @Talkot]

$iVR just reported Q3 book @$6.74 and held $DIV @ 12c. Should be good news