Tapio Wallenius

Kansainvälinen talous, politiikka ja kehitys. Pyrin välittämään sellaista, mikä ei lööpeissä. Jos retwiittaan, olen samaa mieltä. Mutapaineihin en jaksa lähteä.

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

@MikaelNiku @solakivi @MartinPaasi @grok Kiina haluaa tulla luokitelluksi kehitysmaaksi. Antaa huomattavan paljon etuja ja mahdollisuuksia kansainvälisissä, mm. ilmastoa koskevissa neuvotteluissa.

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

@SarasvuoJari Joskus kuullut sanottavan, että jos outo asia on selitettävissä pelkällä puhtaalla typeryydellä ja tietämättömyydellä, ei siihen kannata hakea muita syitä. Tiedä sitten, päteekö tähän...

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

@HenriVanhanen Vedettiinköhän ”sivilisaation loppu”-uhkailu ihan vain hatusta, ilman mitään isompia toimenpideajatuksia siinä vaiheessa, kun käytännössä oli jo myönnytty antamaan periksi? Sitähän voi markkinoida ainakin omille niin, että hurja uhkaus pakotti Iranin neuvottelupöytään...

[Pakistani Aura @Pakistani__aura]

Trump Calls for Help on Hormuz Strait – World Leaders React😂

[Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1]

I find it hard not to have as a central scenario where oil prices will remain very high for a long time, higher than the market current prices.

I am no expert on geo-politics and defense technology, but this is what I think I have learned:

Fully protecting ships in the strait of Hormuz is basically impossible. Not enough time to stop missiles or drones.

There is no reason, whether or not Trump declares that war is over, to think that Iran will not continue for some time to threaten to destroy the ships that try. Why should they stop?

The risk will thus remain sufficiently high that most non Iranian ships will not take the risk.

Thus, the shortfall of 20 million barrels a day is likely to last for long.

The scope for increased supply from elsewhere is very limited in the short run. Perhaps 2 million barrels at the most.

The 400 million barrels reserve release can only add 3-4 million barrels or so daily.

The short run elasticity of demand for oil is very low, at most -0.1, and probably less.

This suggests to me prices closer to 150-200 dollars per barrel (or more, but I hesitate to give higher numbers…) than to the current market price.

To repeat. I am no expert (As an economist, I have a bit more sense about the next step, namely what such a price would to the world economy). I would be more than happy to be proven wrong.

[Àgbà John Doe @jon_d_doe]

When last did you call or visit your loving father?

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

@AMustakallio Joku amerikkalaistietäjä kuvasi joskus Trumpin äänestämistä keskisormen nostoksi "niille"; ihan sama millainen tyyppi, kunhan oikeaksi katsottujen asioiden puolesta. Ja: "Mitä vain, kunhan ei Kamala". Saman tyyppisiä syitä täällä?

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

Tämä on hauska! Paitsi jos miettii, miksi tällaisia edes joudutaan tekemään....

[Fun Tom 🇨🇦 💂 @funtomvids]

🟥 WOW ... 🇬🇱 🇩🇰

This defiance and solidarity video for Greenland is EPIC. 👌🏼

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

Olipa tosiaan mukava kuunnella tämä puhe, ihan vain jo selkeyden, analyyttisyyden vuoksi.

[Gandalv @Microinteracti1]

Mark Carney’s outstanding Davos speech. His best speech yet, I think!
Here it is in full.

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

@vesa_vihriala Ehkä ennen tuota Carneyn mainitsemaa kyltin poistamista pitää ymmärtää ja haluta ymmärtää elävänsä valheessa. Mukavuudenhalu, muutoksen pelko ja tottumus vetävät toiseen suuntaan.

[Julian Hinz @julianhinz]

A lot has been said about the Greenland tariffs in the past couple of days. We've been looking at the broader picture: who actually pays the tariffs?

We analyzed 25 million shipments worth nearly $4 trillion.

The answer: Americans pay 96%. Foreign exporters absorb just 4%.

1/n

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

@MikaAaltola Ymmärtääkseni siellä on jo valmisteltu muihin potentiaalisesti asian perusteluun käytettäviin lakeihin turvaamista, jos korkein oikeus käy poikkiteloin. Siinä sitten taas usea kuukausi juristien riitelyä samalla, kun hallinto painaa eteenpäin...?

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

An interesting view.

[Peter W. Kruger @pwk]

It's not about Greenland. Take a deep breath. Greenland is just part of a strategy to escalate tensions and build a case at home for the final push to achieve this Admin's geopolitical goals: crash NATO and any remaining appearance of "international law", forcefully coerce former partners into submission, and start negotiating from a position of strength the new imperial world order with Russia and China.

What they are doing is precisely a replica of what's happening in Minnesota: put pressure via ICE to a point where tensions boil over and the admin has the "excuse" to go all-in authoritarian.

That's why in Europe cool heads have to prevail. Remember, we also have our own strategy: to bide as much time as possible in order to build strength and reshape our own alliances.

That's precisely why they have this urge to push so hard now. Things have to be settled before we have any time to reorganize.

Expect things to escalate very rapidly. Canada's trade agreement with China is already sending them in full panic mode. They are going to become seriously dangerous. Yet keep your nerve.

Stay calm, build strength 🇪🇺.

[Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin]

In my exchanges with various Americans on social media, it's become clear that the problem isn't that Americans can't find Greenland on a map. They can; Greenland's hard to miss, especially on a Mercator projection. The problem is that too many Americans can't find Denmark on a map. They have no idea what it is and have no real understanding both of the value of allies in general and of Denmark in particular. They don't believe me when I tell them that European allies are worth having, that they do have militaries, that they do enhance our security, and that, in general, they are good for our well-being as Americans.

So, for example, when I say the Danes fought in Afghanistan, they dismiss this because of the assumption that Denmark's contribution was of no consequence, nor, to be frank, was that of any NATO ally. They simply are unaware of anyone else doing anything.

When I tell them that having an ally in control of the Straits of Denmark is a huge advantage, they shrug their shoulders. The Straits of what? Why does being able to bottle up the Baltic Sea matter? It's so remote it might as well be Middle Earth.

When I tell them that Denmark has committed to defending Latvia and keeps an armored battalion there, they have no clue why that might do America any good. They just see (because Trump pointed it out) that Denmark has left Greenland undefended. The fact that Denmark in effect has chosen to defend Greenland by putting troops forward (Latvia) does not compute. And of course they have no idea that since 1941 the US and Denmark have had an understanding about Greenland's defense, which has encouraged Danes to focus east, not west.

And so, when I say that Trump is in danger of killing NATO, they really don't understand why any American should care, since, as far as they are concerned, only the United States does anything, and the rest of NATO is there as window dressing. You (hopefully) and I know that's not at all true, but too many Americans view things in this way.

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

@katleena 3/3 Demokratia sivuutettiin stabiliteetin ylläpitämiseksi (öljyt jne..) Ei se asiantila kovin nopeasti muutu, vaikka miten imartelisi.

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

@katleena 2/3 Toinen asia: USA valitsi aivan tieten tahtoen Rodriguezin & co (= Maduron vanha jengi), pitämään valtaa, koska oppositio ei olisi saanut maata pysymään kasassa: siellä on melkoinen määrä erilaisia aseellisia ryhmiä, armeijan sisälläkin, + huumejengit jne...

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

@rautakansleri_ Onnea ja menestystä yrityksellesi saada ihmiset pyrkimään puolueettomuuteen ja esim. tarkastelemaan omia ja pyrkimään ymmärtämään toisella tavalla ajattelevien lähtökohtia!

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

@ToikkaJyri Joku voi tietää paremmin, mutta ymmärtääkseni ICE:n ihmisillä ei ole poliisin valtuuksia/valtuuksia pysäyttää tai pidättää ihmisiä muuten kuin rikoksiin tai maahanmuuttoon liittyvissä asioissa.

[Tapio Wallenius @TapioWallenius]

Jotenkin hankalaa kuvitella, vaikka toivoisi, sellaista ulospääsyä USA:n sisäisistä jännitteistä, joihin ei liittyisi vakavampia, väkivaltaisiakin konfrontaatioita....

[Collin Rugg @CollinRugg]

BREAKING: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz issues a warning order to prepare the Minnesota National Guard following the ICE shooting in Minneapolis.

"To Minnesotans, know that our administration is going to stop at nothing to seek accountability and justice..."

"To Donald Trump and Kristi Noem, you've done enough. There's nothing more important than Minnesotan safety. I've issued a warning order to prepare the Minnesota National Guard. We have soldiers in training and prepared to be deployed if necessary."