Tara Zimmerman

I’m just here for food and puns.

[Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian]

Hey Cult Boys,

I got another complicated math question for you.

Please see if you can help me figure it out. I just can’t seem to.

It costs $2 to make a t shirt in Vietnam.

It costs $20 to make that same t shirt in West Virginia.

After you tariff Walmart 50%, and make that t shirt cost $3 in Vietnam.

Does Walmart:
A) Continue using the Vietnamese factory
B) Switch to West Virginia’s factory

Please help.

[Robb Smith @RobbSmith]

Time to spit some truth. Tariffs can't possibly make this $5 injection-molded spatula made in Vietnam or China a level-playing field. Why? Because the $2/hr Vietnam worker or $4/hr Chinese worker literally can't be made equal to the $35/hr US worker through a tariff; the math simply doesn't work. And China already uses the world's best automation, so the US can't make up the difference via higher productivity.

The only thing tariffs will do—and this isn't speculative, this will happen—is that if someone needs a spatula they'll now pay $7 for it (based on 50% tariffs and 20% Amazon margin). So a consumer will pay 40% more for that item, starting basically now.

Now, the reason no one is going to setup a spatula factory in the US is the same reason we shouldn't be tariffing spatulas: the US should not be producing them, and no one in their right mind will try.

There is a value curve in international economics, and poorer countries make cheap stuff and rich countries make expensive, complicated stuff. Just imagine trying to make spatulas in the US, even with state-of-the-art automation (the same the Chinese use): now your cheap plastic spatula will be $30.

This entire program is an act of strongman theater by people who have no intention of keeping these tariffs in place. Trump's team knows the US will be impoverished by moving down the value curve to compete with developing nations for stuff we shouldn't be producing in the first place.

So why do it? They're hoping that every nation blinks and eliminates their own tariffs, and that this magically creates American jobs. The problem with that, though, is twofold.

First, the economic carnage that is wrought while doing so could be catastrophic, as markets, asset values, investment, consumer spending and varied nation's policy replies generate a chaotic complex system that could very easily throw off all sorts of nonlinear black swans; they're playing with fire. If this doesn't get resolved soon, it's a guaranteed recession and wealth effect down-spiral.

Which brings me to the second reason tariffs are a problem: they play with fire here, but tariffs won't even work. The US's core economic problem isn't unfair trade, it is that it is rich, has fallen behind in the global economic value curve, and its prosperity is massively unequally distributed. These effects arise not because of unfair trade, but because as the global reserve currency our currency is overvalued relative to everyone else (esp China). Not to mention we've done a terrible job of investing in the education, innovation and productivity enhancement needed to remain competitive in the face of that GRC headwind. Yes, China needs to boost its domestic demand so as to soak up its excess savings that currently is being absorbed by US trade deficits, but the US has not done a single thing in 80 years to actually free itself from the yolk of being the GRC. Indeed, Trump and his team keep talking it up as if it's a source of power! It's not, it's the very disease that will inevitably choke us out, and not a single foreign nation has to fire a shot to do it.

Beyond the GRC, decades ago we gave up on our future: the U.S. historically led in innovation—DARPA, semiconductors, the Internet, biotech—but starting in the 1980s, there was a strong political shift away from public R&D and industrial policy in favor of neoliberal market ideology. Unsurprisingly, public R&D as a % of GDP has declined since the 1970s. The sad part is DOGE is doing it all over again as we speak, hollowing out our public R&D investments and talent and eliminating what little lead we still have, and MAGA is cheering them on. The lack of knowledge and self-awareness is almost inconceivable.

More, American education has been terrible. We have stagnant K–12 outcomes, especially in STEM, and underfunded schools. We've had skyrocketing college costs and student debt, and little investment in vocational training, apprenticeships, or mid-career up-skilling—areas where Germany, South Korea, and now China excel. Meanwhile, China massively invested in education, with rapid university expansion, heavy investment in STEM (over 4.7 million STEM grads/year vs ~0.6M in the U.S.), and deeply subsidized AI, robotics, advanced manufacturing and materials PhDs.

We want to even be in this conversation? Then we need to stop acting like petulant children, learn some basic facts about how the world actually works, and then get ready to compete for the future by laying down long-term, strategic investment in the core of the nation's capacities and which will take decades to come to fruition. If you think we're going to overcome 50 years of short-sighted policy and lack of truth-telling to the American people, lies that continue right up to this afternoon, than you should absolutely expect, with totally fair warning, that this only gets worse from here, and we'll have no one to blame but ourselves.

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

Takeaway from Zelenskyy and Trump is that if you remove personalities this is what you have: one side trying to protect its people, culture and country while the other side dictates, bullies and goes against its values. You can decide who is who. #poll

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

Is this place essentially an Elon musk fan page? Tom from MySpace would have never done us this dirty.

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

@cb_doge @elonmusk Lil peepee energy.

[Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders]

Oligarchs are waging a war on the working class, and they are intent on winning.

But this is what I know:

The worst fear that the ruling class in this country has is that Americans come together to demand a government that represents all of us, not just the wealthy few.

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

“The current & future generations of political leaders should remember they are not each others enemies - they are opponents” - @jeanchretien12

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

Can we all agree that the only acceptable non fruit flavours in jelly beans are marshmallow and popcorn?

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

@AWCanada asking for my early 2000s self, can we get the A&W frozen root beer sugar-free?

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

I had sushi instead of tacos tonight but they’re kind of the same. If you know, you know. 🌮🙃🍣 #keithsbigtaco

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

@7Veritas4 @7Veritas4 his tweet is like a shein product title, he’s trying to SEO the alt right.

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

@SUBWAY solely exists for sad office lunches. Fight me on this ⬇️. #debate

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

Truth.

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

Does anyone actually care about how Brad Pitt drinks his coffee? ☕️ #delonghi

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

Graphic design opinion- buttons edition: either full rounded border radius OR no border radius. #GraphicDesign

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

FACT: hot girls may be crazy but guys with nice eyelashes are fucking nuts.

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

@StarbucksCanada PLEASE bring back the sugar-free cinnamon dolce latte. My Christmas season self has not been the same since its been gone.😢🎄

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

When the bag of lettuce makes you feel bad for buying bagged lettuce, they give you a stump 🥬 #guilt

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

In todays society it feels like the only way to be accepting is to be liberal. Being inclusive and spending a shit ton of tax money should NOT be mutually exclusive. #canadianpolitics

[Tara Zimmerman @Tara_Zimm]

Watching re-runs of @JerseyShore realizing the whole crew is likely very dehydrated and it stresses me out. #ThirstyThursday