M. Chakraborty, IIT Kharagpur professor:
"every trade, every option, every bet on earth obeys three rules, and almost no one who bets has read them."
He builds all of probability from just three axioms, for free. one, no probability is ever negative. two, the total always sums to 1. three, for events that cannot both happen, the odds add.
That is the entire foundation. from those three lines everything follows. the chance of a thing not happening is 1 minus the chance it does. a bigger event always carries more probability than the smaller one inside it.
Wall Street prices trillions on top of this. the professor charged nothing for it.
three axioms. one chalkboard. still free.
this Grok Bot setup is f**king underrated. 3 simple rules can save you hundreds of wasted agent runs
most people schedule their agents every 5 minutes and let them burn tokens checking absolutely nothing.
the better move? give Grok Bot 3 different ways to handle work.
[here's how the system works]
→ change check: reads the current state before starting an expensive run
→ webhook: wakes the bot only when GitHub reports an actual event
→ night rule: keeps risky actions as drafts instead of asking for approval at 3 a.m.
the numbers are pretty wild:
→ full run costs $0.046 in the example
→ cheap check costs just $0.0043
→ unchanged inputs mean zero full executions
and here's the part that matters.
a failed deployment doesn't need another blind retry. it needs a short report, a verified cause and a human decision when necessary.
same with overnight approvals. the bot can prepare everything without taking irreversible actions.
[the actual rule]
check first → run only when needed → verify the result → leave risky work for review
these are example API costs, not measured subscription charges.
a good agent shouldn't need constant supervision. it should know exactly when to stop.
↳ https://t.co/gFyn0U0TCQ
Manifestazione della #Cgil a Roma. Contro la manovra il segretario #Landini annuncia sciopero generale il prossimo 20 novembre. In piazza anche i leader delle opposizioni.
#tg3