Taylor Shiroff

Econ PhD @DukeEcon, occasional songwriter, amateur historian, and former @clevelandfed RA. Views always my own.

[Taylor Shiroff @TaylorShiroff]

First working paper is finally out!

Yes, it’s another paper adding to the endless number of survey-based RCTs in macro, but ours has a few interesting quirks. A brief thread:

https://t.co/IhwUS2LYZH

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: https://t.co/5dfrkByGyX

[Conan O'Brien @ConanOBrien]

My sister Kate has entered the chat.

[Taylor Shiroff @TaylorShiroff]

New from me (and others): variation in the political composition of survey samples can explain some of the disagreement between their measures of consumers’ inflation expectations! https://t.co/CSV2klU4tn

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

Yes.

Writing is not a second thing that happens after thinking. The act of writing is an act of thinking. Writing *is* thinking.

Students, academics, and anyone else who outsources their writing to LLMs will find their screens full of words and their minds emptied of thought.

[Armand Domalewski @ArmandDoma]

thinking about this

[Alex Vacca @itsalexvacca]

BREAKING: MIT just completed the first brain scan study of ChatGPT users & the results are terrifying.

Turns out, AI isn't making us more productive. It's making us cognitively bankrupt.

Here's what 4 months of data revealed:

(hint: we've been measuring productivity all wrong)

[Stereogum @stereogum]

.@mewithoutYou deserve recognition as one of the 21st century's greatest rock bands, and the underrated 'Pale Horses' — released 10 years ago today — is a big reason why https://t.co/LNfN7MPZoV

[Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈 @JosephPolitano]

In rhetoric, this administration is only deporting "criminals", in reality, they are gleeful for the chance to go after people who came to the US as a baby and have done nothing but contribute positively to the only home they've known for decades. Fundamentally anti-American.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

I’m always impressed with “Conservatives” who love to talk about the government and officials violating their Constitutional Rights, but when its done against people on the other side or to further ideals that they support it’s totally okay.

[Jessica Riedl 🧀 🇺🇦 @JessicaBRiedl]

NEW from me @thedispatch.

“Farm country voted overwhelmingly to unleash a new trade war. And now these same farmers want taxpayers to finance another round of bailouts to protect them from the consequences of their own votes.” Hell no.

[Hunter📈🌈📊 @StatisticUrban]

Cutting US STEM funding in half is exactly what you’d do if you wanted the US to lose to China

[Conan O'Brien @ConanOBrien]

My dear old pal Greg Daniels just sent me this. Amazing how one photo can say it all!

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

Together in Kyiv at the meeting of the Coalition of the Willing — five of us in person, joined online by leaders from over 30 countries, the EU, and NATO — we discussed what is urgently needed to achieve peace.
The key outcome: a united and clear position on the following points.

[The Alex Nowrasteh @AlexNowrasteh]

One of the worst laws ever signed by a president. Prior to this, >100,000 European Jews came to the US annually. Many millions would have come but for this monstrosity, to say nothing of the millions of others who would’ve escaped before being consumed by war & dictatorship.

[Taylor Shiroff @TaylorShiroff]

new (short and sweet) working paper just dropped

[Cleveland Fed @ClevelandFed]

In a new working paper, Cleveland Fed economists explore the question: are revisions to state-level #GDP data in the US well behaved? Their findings say no, see their explanation: https://t.co/hKeZDXA9OO

[Cleveland Fed @ClevelandFed]

In a new working paper, Cleveland Fed economists explore the question: are revisions to state-level #GDP data in the US well behaved? Their findings say no, see their explanation: https://t.co/hKeZDXA9OO

[Hamilton Galindo Gil @HamiltonGalin10]

If you're interested in heterogeneous-agent models in asset pricing, you might find this article particularly relevant! The replication codes are available, making it easy to explore the results in detail.

[Alan Cole @AlanMCole]

I can confirm I've replicated the CEA calculation for the so-called "tariffs charged to the USA" on these charts.

It is the Census FT900 trade data, exhibit 4, for year 2024, and the formula is MAX(10%,(imports-exports)/imports) per-country on a customs basis.

[David French @DavidAFrench]

Once again, for those in the back, the way to determine whether someone actually violated the law is through due process.

[Ukrainska Pravda in English @pravda_eng]

🤣 NYT: Biden's administration was furious and panicked when Ukrainians sank Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva https://t.co/V3mCR0pp0v