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Not as active anymore, just post here as a public journal :)
Welp. $ETSY with a fantastic quarter beating estimates, but stock down big AH, hovering at the 200-day EMA. Adding a bit here, and will wait for the ER call to hear more.
$AMD had a fantastic ER, but has fallen back down. AMD has nice support around these levels. $ETSY I believe will blow out the analysts estimates so I'm jumping on during the dip. ETSY could drop down to 200-day EMA if ER isn't great though.
We'll see how these moves play out.
I've set the price alerts on my phone. Tip for others out there: Best thing to do is relax and only check when the alerts go off.
For example for $AMD, I've set two alerts: price < $74 (near bottom of sideways channel) and price > $85 (near top of sideways channel) .
Since I added at ~$168, the stock is down another $13.
I'll be adding again today to $TDOC. I've added to $AMD and started a small short-term $ETSY position today as well. Will continue to trim other positions to fund these moves.
Significantly added to my $TDOC position today, trimmed several positions to do so. Mgmt's bullish guidance for 2021 and bullish outlook for 2022 is very encouraging. Expecting short-term pain but that's okay, would hate myself if I didn't add at these levels.
$AMD had a fantastic ER, but has fallen back down. AMD has nice support around these levels. $ETSY I believe will blow out the analysts estimates so I'm jumping on during the dip. ETSY could drop down to 200-day EMA if ER isn't great though.
We'll see how these moves play out.
$TDOC DID benefit from Covid, there's no denying that. There are still execution risks via the latest mergers. There are still competition risks.
But I'm okay with the RR here, and hence I added.
Significantly added to my $TDOC position today, trimmed several positions to do so. Mgmt's bullish guidance for 2021 and bullish outlook for 2022 is very encouraging. Expecting short-term pain but that's okay, would hate myself if I didn't add at these levels.
$TDOC
Revenue 151% year-over-year to $453.7 million
Total visits increasing 56% to 3.2 million.
Guidance: Second-quarter 2021 - Total revenue to be in the range of $495 million to $505 million.
Full-year 2021 - Total revenue to be in the range of $1,970 million to $2,020 million.
What the market hates is $TDOC's net losses. What some folks don't understand is that majority of that was due to the $LVGO merger, specifically the stock-based compensation (a one time expense).
I've initiated a short-term position in $SKLZ at $13. There are a fair amount of bulls and bears on this one. The DD is not clear cut on whether it's a slam-dunk long-term as shown in the bearish thread below, but IMO at ~21 EV/S LTM I'm comfortable with the RR here.
@BluSuitDillon Yes like that, but need more of those. I want to see the actual effect of getting a NFL-themed game on their revenue growth, on # of developers growth, # of quality games made, etc. Time will tell.
I've initiated a short-term position in $SKLZ at $13. There are a fair amount of bulls and bears on this one. The DD is not clear cut on whether it's a slam-dunk long-term as shown in the bearish thread below, but IMO at ~21 EV/S LTM I'm comfortable with the RR here.
@BluSuitDillon Bearish point for me: For sustainable high-growth, need to attract better developers to use their platform. We all know game quality is lacking, I'd like to see clear signs of improvement there before investing more. Time will tell. Model worked for $SHOP, but may not for $SKLZ.
@Yaivvee It very much could be, mentioned that in my post as well. However, the reasoning behind the fall was not related to the long-term story? Valuation was absurd before, even with the low rates. Had position at ~$18 in December and sold at $28 before the run-up due to valuation.
Obviously with my time away from Twitter since late-December / early-January, I haven't really given any updates. Will post an update at the end of the month. 👍
I've initiated a short-term position in $SKLZ at $13. There are a fair amount of bulls and bears on this one. The DD is not clear cut on whether it's a slam-dunk long-term as shown in the bearish thread below, but IMO at ~21 EV/S LTM I'm comfortable with the RR here.
$SE Goldman - View SE as a key winner in the fast-growing ASEAN/Taiwan Gaming, Ecom and Payments markets, see upside from its successful moves into LATAM/India. We see the company transforming in to global EM internet play, competing in a much larger TAM. Conviction Buy PT $330
Grateful that the Brazilian Central Bank has approved our payments license. Looking forward to launching safe, secure, and convenient digital payments on WhatsApp soon.
https://t.co/fEy6ijVfo7
@jonbma Honestly I was fine with the super-team of Durant-Harden-Irving before because their depth was bad compared to other contending teams... But now they have solid depth too!
$SKLZ - Red Flags
I am a $SKLZ S/H - I fell in love with the concept of the company:
- Turning simple games into gambling, while avoiding gambling laws
I admit, I did not do full DD on the company
Someone care to talk me off the metaphorical ledge of selling?
Thread 👇