13M HUMANOIDS BY 2035. SHIPPED COUNT STILL TINY.
morgan stanley $5T · goldman 250k by 2030
agibot 10k · unitree 5.5k g1 · figure ~150
most valuable shipped the fewest $39b / 150
forecasts are free units are not
▹ female form · where it actually lands
home care hospitality retail front-of-house
stairs door handles tote bins already her height
1x neo $20k / $499 mo preorder not delivery
companion pitch sells soft face soft voice
factory floor still buys digit apollo figure 03
female silhouette = trust layer not the moat
moat stays cost curve + teleop data + actuators
▹ the numbers that survive
unitree g1 $13,500 shop page ships now
h1 ~$90k edu $43,900 china sets the price path
optimus fremont target 1m / yr ramp flat long
bmw spartanburg 1,250+ hours not unit vanity
agility digit amazon gxo toyota contracted work
hyundai 25k atlas blocked by union gate
▹ prediction
2030 goldman 250k is the optimistic S-curve exit
china hits volume first unitree-class supply chain
western wins stay named sites hours not fleets
female home bots clear demos fail audit count
first real signal = third-party actuator contracts
audited filings beat earnings-call sentences
▹ take
general shape amortises renovation not task cost
narrow tote jobs win until soft hands + tactile
data gap > hand dof epoch compute is 1% of llms
quote shipped next to forecast or the thread lies
patience with capability vs deployment gap so back