Who are some researchers or organizations trying to answer “big picture” questions in wild animal suffering (e.g., do small soil animals live negative or positive lives?), or questions likely to translate to especially high-impact interventions? Would love recommendations 4/
The more obvious reason is it seems like a process that will take a lot of time before having any impact, and depending on your view of AI timelines, you might have higher discount rates. But I’m unclear what reasonable timeframes might be for other approaches here 2/
My bigger worry is that field-building often rewards pursuing tractable, legible questions over pursuing the most important ones. I don’t think targeted veterinary interventions for wild mammals, for instance, are likely to prove more cost-effective than cage-free campaigns 3/
I’m pretty uninformed about this, but as someone who thinks wild animal suffering is plausibly among the most important issues in the world (and wishes to make donations to such work over the next few years), I have some worries about the agenda to build it as a research field 1/
@NathanpmYoung Noah has been arguing for this comms change specifically (e.g., https://t.co/YkYB3s4enr, https://t.co/MIowo73MB2). I disagree with him about many of his AI takes (and find him a better commentator on non-AI issues), but I do think he specifically means the comms change.
Much more relevant for animal welfare, particularly wild animal suffering, is the EU–Mercosur Partnership Agreement, which I will be writing about soon. 7/
Typically, the net effects of breaking up large meat companies on animal welfare are unclear. Market concentration allows for P > MC and thus less production/consumption than an efficient market, while aggressive competition between more companies might lower welfare standards 1/
None of this is very relevant to the current antitrust investigation (which doesn’t seek divestiture as a goal and might not even lead to a case). Overall though, I’d weakly guess the net effects of strong antitrust enforcement in the beef industry specifically are positive 6/
@morallawwithin What is your credence that shrimp can feel pain or suffer? My guess is that taking illusionism seriously probably raises the bar for the kinds of neurological properties you need to have “consciousness” the way we do
@LinchZhang@MichaelJDickens Suppose A is “it is raining in Tokyo” and B is “[insert celebrity] ate lunch today.” ¬A ∨ B is very likely true, but it doesn’t seem like “A implies B” even remotely captures this situation. In contrast, in both #1 and #3, “A implies B” seems like it could capture the situation.
@ZiChengCaoHuang Is your point that you expect r* to go up rapidly and hence Fed policy will be overly expansionary soon? Or that you want less access to capital for AI or data centers or something? Or something else
@michaelxpettis What do you think of the argument that the U.S. having higher productivity + TFP growth than most other advanced economies would lead to sizable net capital inflows for America even without China artificially pushing up its savings rate?