James

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: A source close to Iranian officials says Tehran has documented a pattern of oil market manipulation tied to Axios reporting and Trump administration insiders, including evidence of a $9 billion insider trading operation linked to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

The documented timeline of the $9 billion insider profit:

Between April and May 2026, a series of highly suspiciously timed trades in oil futures markets preceded major Iran war and deal announcements, each tied to reporting by Axios.

On March 23, approximately $500–580 million in shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump announced he was postponing strikes on Iran, oil dropped.

On April 7, roughly $950–960 million in shorts were placed hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, oil fell 15 percent.

On April 17, approximately $760 million in shorts were placed 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil dropped.

On April 21, around $430 million in shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire, oil dropped again.

On May 6, nearly $920 million to $1.7 billion in crude oil shorts were placed approximately 70 minutes before an Axios scoop claimed the U.S. and Iran were near a "14-point agreement." Oil dropped 12 percent. Traders made an estimated $125 million in profit, while Iran called the May 6 Axios report "the Americans' wish list," and completely false.

A senior Iranian official previously told Drop Site News that Iran privately warned VP JD Vance during Switzerland talks that Kushner and Witkoff were "abusing" negotiations, being "more interested in exploiting insider knowledge to profit in financial markets than reaching a deal."

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

Don’t fall for the fake Fox/GOP outrage. Two weeks ago the House passed a bill that greenlighted the transfer of Spanish territory to Morocco. Every Republican except me voted for it, but now THEY are acting shocked at the invasion.
https://t.co/a7ROEAtoOD
https://t.co/886sJycfeL

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

SPY has 26 all-time highs in 144 trading days. A new high every 6 sessions.

"Nowhere to go but down."

We tested 22 years of SPY and QQQ data. Every ATH since 2003.

After hitting an all-time high, the market makes another new high within 60 days 98% of the time. Within a year: 92%.

"Nowhere to go but down" is wrong 92-98% of the time.

But every top starts at an ATH. True. All 24 major drawdowns began from one. But there were 1,136 total ATH days. Only 2.1% are THE top. The other 97.9% are just another day on the way higher.

All-time highs aren't the end of the rally. The market tops when ATHs stop. Not when they start.

$SPY $QQQ

[James @TempName987]

@alphaticaio Doom sells. Fear results in clicks. And clicks result in ad revenue share. The unscrupulous & alpha-less love to engagement farm. ‘Tis all they have…

[James @TempName987]

@alphaticaio Exactly 💯🔥

[James @TempName987]

@alphaticaio Warsh is about to find himself in a pickle. The rock? Markets. The hard place? A showdown w/the man who appointed him Chair, and who under no circumstances will accept a hike on the cusp of midterms.

Got my🍿ready.

[James @TempName987]

@alphaticaio Great callout on the lead-lag relationship b/w PCE & GDP Price Index. The next data point resolves the seeming contradiction.

Regardless, the FED now has cover to hike in Sept. Yesterday’s market reaction (and likely march higher in 30-yr yields) provide a forcing function.

[James @TempName987]

@alphaticaio If 10-yr hits 4.75% or 30-yr keeps marching higher in the next 6 weeks (likely if the Iran quagmire persists), not hiking will completely kill Warsh’s already-teetering credibility. Equities might paradoxically sell-off lest the FOMC tame the long-end, even if only a 25 bps hike.

[James @TempName987]

@alphaticaio Looks like Citadel took down the block trades

[James @TempName987]

@alphaticaio Another reminder that a thesis doesn’t guarantee LT gains. Leo was a 24-yr old kid w/no trading exp, no robust ST / MT price pattern signals, & clearly no risk mgmt lol

Running that much leverage w/out knowing how to run a book means blowing out is a question of “when”, not “If”

[James @TempName987]

@alphaticaio Excellent analysis. Perfectly lays out the geometry of the market manifold. Super helpful, thanks!

[James @TempName987]

@alphaticaio Ahh noted, thanks.

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

The Federal Reserve makes their interest rate decision tomorrow.

The pre-FOMC announcement drift, one of the most celebrated anomalies in finance, no longer exists. The day before FOMC is statistically indistinguishable from any other trading day. The FOMC day effect itself is collapsing. And the strongest signal in the data is the one nobody is trading: the 2-day post-FOMC reversal of -0.31% (p = 0.002).

Three rules for tomorrow's FOMC:

1. Don't buy the day before (today). The drift is dead.

2. FOMC day may pop, but it's no longer significant in recent data.

3. If the market rallies on the announcement, the next 2 days give it back.

If this research is useful to you, a repost helps it reach the traders and investors who could benefit from it. We publish this work to be shared. We only ask because our reach on this platform is low.

Full research in the article below. 👇

$SPY $QQQ $IWM #FOMC

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

The Israeli lobby spent $30 million to beat me, but America won because an entire generation is now aware of their corrosive influence on our government. Every elected Republican in Congress is bought, captured, or intimidated by them to some degree. I am the last who is not.

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

SPY IS IN A NEW GAMMA AND DELTA REGIME HEADING INTO FOMC WEEK. NOW WHAT?

Last night we told you that SPY's gamma and delta structure flipped negative for the first time in 13 weeks. Here's what happens next.

We went back 14 years. 760 weekly samples from January 2012 through July 2026. Every Friday, we reconstructed the full SPY options chain and classified the gamma and delta regime. We isolated every instance where both gamma AND delta were negative simultaneously the exact regime SPY entered this week.

249 observations. 94 distinct episodes. Here are the forward returns.

SPY from negative gamma / negative delta entry:
20-day: +1.16% mean, +21.59% max, 63.4% win rate.
30-day: +1.62% mean, +23.07% max, 66.4% win rate.
60-day: +3.38% mean, +27.61% max, 77.2% win rate.

QQQ from the same entry point:
20-day: +1.37% mean, +17.92% max, 61.3% win rate.
30-day: +1.91% mean, +24.89% max, 64.3% win rate.
60-day: +4.26% mean, +33.18% max, 76.4% win rate.

QQQ outperforms SPY at every horizon. The 60-day max return of +33.18% shows how hard tech snaps back from structural stress.

The catch: the path is rough. Average max drawdown over 60 days is -5.97% for SPY and -7.40% for QQQ. 46% of observations saw a drawdown exceeding 5%. One in six saw a drawdown exceeding 10%. You ride through pain to get to the recovery.

🚨🚨The most recent example everyone knows. February 27, 2026. SPY entered at $682. Gamma and delta both negative. The February 2026 selloff took SPY to $632 a -7.67% drawdown over the next 30 days. At 60 days: SPY +4.03%. QQQ +8.41%. Full recovery. Everyone who panic-sold left the recovery on the table. The regime data said hold.

Statistical significance. SPY 60-day forward returns from this regime are significantly higher than all other periods. Welch t-test p=0.0015. Permutation test p=0.0008. Newey-West overlap-corrected p=0.0248. Win rate binomial p<0.0001. This is not noise.

The regime occurs 32.8% of the time. Nearly a third of all weeks since 2012. Average episode lasts 2.6 weeks. The market enters this regime regularly, and it resolves the same way the overwhelming majority of the time.

FOMC on Wednesday. AAPL and AMZN earnings Thursday. The catalysts for resolution are already on the calendar. The base rate says 77% chance SPY is higher 60 days from now. The drawdown says don't expect a straight line to get there.

*If this research is useful to you, a repost helps it reach the traders and investors who could benefit from it. We publish this work to be shared. $SPY $QQQ $IWM

[James @TempName987]

@alphaticaio Finally an inclusion of historical maxDD post-breakouts. Thresholds &amp; triggers are not required to be identical.

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

I spoke to McConnell for about 20 minutes this morning.

He said we should end the war with Iran, quit giving aid to Israel, stop spying on Americans without a warrant, and he’s really sorry about how my primary turned out.

[Ro Khanna @RoKhanna]

Israeli settlers, brandishing American made M4s, detained me &amp; other Americans on my trip to Palestine.

When the IDF arrived, they sided with the settlers &amp; continued our detention.

They made a huge mistake.

You will be hearing more soon. https://t.co/rZw8bRAn64

[James @TempName987]

@MarioNawfal ALL Wars are Banker wars. It’s always about financial wealth, not ideology.