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A secular bull market roadmap suggests the current stock rally could last through 2033, Bank of America says
[Feb 10, 2024]

- [ ] A secular bull market roadmap suggests the current bull market in stocks could last through 2033, according to Bank of America’s Stephen Suttmeier…
- [ ] He highlighted prior secular bull markets and used them as a roadmap to chart today’s rally. 
- [ ] “To know where you’re going, it helps to know where you’ve been,” Suttmeier said.

The current bull market in stocks could last through 2033, according to a recent note from Bank of America technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier.
He observed prior secular bull markets in US stocks from 1950 to 1966 and from 1980 to 2000, then used them as a roadmap to chart the current rally.
“To know where you’re going, it helps to know where you’ve been,” Suttmeier said in a video message to clients.
The current secular bull market officially started in April 2013 when the S&P 500 eclipsed its prior highs reached during the 2000 dot-com peak and the 2007 housing peak.

A secular market is a market that is driven by forces that could be in place for many years, causing the price of a particular investment or asset class to rise or fall over a long period. In a secular bull market, positive conditions such as low interest rates and strong corporate earnings push stock prices higher.

Now having entered its 11th year in 2024, history suggests a long runway from here.
"The current secular bull market from the 2013 breakout above the prior highs from 2000 and 2007 is middle-aged and [can] last until the late 2020s into the early 2030s," Suttmeier said.
Using past performance as a guide, today's rally would end somewhere between 2029 and 2033, according to the note.
That's a bullish signal for Suttmeier, who expects the S&P 500 to trade above 5,000 for much of 2024 thanks to positive seasonals related to the fourth year of a presidential election cycle, bullish "cup and handle" patterns developing across various sectors of the stock market that typically precede further upside, and the roadmap of prior secular bull market rallies.
"The overlay chart that lines up the secular bull market breakouts from 1950, 1980 and 2013 suggests that the S&P 500 can spend much of 2024 north of 5,000. This corroborates bullish pattern counts for the S&P 500 near 5,200 and 5,600, respectively," Suttmeier said.
A rally to 5,600 would represent potential upside of 18% from current levels and exceed even the most bullish forecasts on Wall Street.

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No, there were no significant Israeli military attacks or large-scale operations in Gaza in the days immediately prior (e.g., the week or so before October 7, 2023).
The October 7 attacks by Hamas and allied groups cannot reasonably be described as a direct response to Israeli aggression in the previous days in Gaza. The assault was a premeditated, large-scale offensive planned well in advance.
What Happened in the Lead-Up (Late Summer/Early Fall 2023)
• The last major escalation before October 7 was in May 2023 (Operation Shield and Arrow), when Israel conducted airstrikes against Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) targets in Gaza after PIJ launched rockets. That ended in a ceasefire.
• In the months after that, rocket fire from Gaza was sporadic and relatively low-level compared to previous years.
• In mid-September 2023, there were Palestinian demonstrations/protests near the Gaza-Israel perimeter fence (marking the anniversary of Israel’s 2005 withdrawal). These involved burning tires, throwing stones/explosive devices, and some attempts to approach the fence.
• Israeli forces responded with live fire, tear gas, and rubber bullets, injuring dozens of Palestinians.
• On or around September 13–15, an explosive device detonated near the fence (killing 5 Palestinians), and Israel conducted limited airstrikes/missile strikes targeting armed groups’ military outposts near the fence (injuring one Palestinian). https://t.co/NkKsztK8Ze
• These were localized border incidents and responses — not a major offensive, ground operation, or sustained bombardment of Gaza.
No credible reports indicate heavy Israeli airstrikes, incursions, or major aggression in Gaza in the final days or week before October 7. The border area was relatively quiet in early October compared to prior flare-ups.
The Nature of the October 7 Attack
• Hamas’s operation (called “Al-Aqsa Flood”) involved thousands of rockets, border breaches, and ground infiltrations targeting Israeli communities, military bases, and the Nova music festival. It killed ~1,200 people and took over 250 hostages.
• Evidence shows it was long-planned:
• Documents (including a 2022 memo attributed to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar) detail extensive preparations, training, rehearsals, and specific tactics for breaching the border at multiple points, targeting civilians, taking hostages, and causing maximum chaos.
• Hamas had been building military capabilities (tunnels, rockets, etc.) for years.
• Israeli intelligence assessed at the time that Hamas was deterred and not planning an imminent large attack — a major failure later acknowledged.
Broader Context and Grievances
The attack occurred against a backdrop of long-term tensions:
• Ongoing blockade of Gaza.
• Israeli operations in the West Bank (raids against militants, which killed Palestinians throughout 2023).
• Tensions around the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem.
• Prisoner issues and other cumulative grievances cited by Hamas and Palestinian groups.
Hamas and its supporters often frame October 7 as resistance or retaliation for these broader issues. However, it was not a spontaneous or direct reaction to fresh Israeli military action in Gaza in the preceding days. It was an offensive initiative by Hamas.
In short: The immediate days before October 7 saw only minor border friction and limited Israeli responses to protests/explosives — nothing on the scale that would explain or justify October 7 as a “direct response.” The attack was a deliberate escalation planned over a longer period. The conflict has deep roots and cycles of violence from both sides, but the timing and nature of October 7 point to Hamas choosing to launch a major surprise offensive.

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Grazie, campione! 🇮🇹🎾🥕 @janniksin