Terry

市场里的小学生

[Gavinly @Fengyi1811]

第一次看到彩虹的诞生，这个摄影师好厉害。

[Mess @ctbz1234]

30多年总结的人生经验：

- 当别人说iPhone不好的时候，买iPhone

- 当别人说特斯拉要玩的时候，买特斯拉

- 当别人说不准你炒房的时候，炒房

- 当别人向你宣传买房的时候，不买房

- 当别人宣传要多生育的时候，不生育

- 当别人不准你买加密货币的时候，买加密货币

- 当别人不准你买黄金的时候，买黄金

- 当别人不准你买美股的时候，买美股

- 当别人不提倡你出国的时候，就是出国最好的时机

[老沉 @stock1137460]

美股越来越多股票出现“Call Skew 倒挂”。

目前，标普100指数中约有 25% 的成分股出现了“Inverted Call Skew（看涨期权倒挂）”，接近近几年极端水平。

正常情况下，
越价外的看涨期权（OTM Call）波动率应该越低。

但现在市场正在反过来：

投资者疯狂抢购远期价外 Call，
导致价外 Call 的隐含波动率（IV）高于平值期权。

市场开始用越来越高的价格，
去押注“继续暴涨”。

过去几年中，
类似水平通常只出现在：

市场狂热阶段
流动性极度宽松阶段
FOMO情绪最强阶段

这���是“市场安全”，
���是“市场越来越拥挤”。

当越来越多人用高杠杆押注上涨时，
市场的脆弱性也在同步累积。

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Money supply is skyrocketing:

Global money supply is now up to a record $121.9 trillion.

Over the last 2 years, money supply has soared +$17.1 trillion, or +16%.

This also marks a +$27 trillion increase, or +28%, since the 2022 low.

This means that global money supply is surging +7% to +8% a year.

Meanwhile, US M2 money supply jumped +$1 trillion YoY, or +4.6%, to a record $22.7 trillion.

Money supply growth is accelerating.

[大宇 @BTCdayu]

据OSS Capital测算，Authropic的收入将在2030达到2万亿美元。

最大的问题不是：“AI能怎么赚钱?”
而是人们：“不知道AI能这么赚钱”。

[0xkevin (🖤 , 💙) @0xKevin00]

美股有个玄学的地方，美联储主席换届股市必跌

新一届美联储主席，大概还有两个月就要登场

如果最近准备定投美股，可以等一个月挖坑再上车

下面统计了玄学数据👇

[Simplifying Stocks, CPA @FinFluentialx]

“It feels like 1999”

Yes it does 🫡

[soothsayer @iamasoothsayer]

2023: Corona ended
2026: Hantavirus

[投资TALK君 @TJ_Research]

YTD MAG7 +1%
社交媒体：美股泡沫！！！
🤡

[Mike @MarketMike]

Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes.

This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities).

The last major signal was at the bottom, high yield quietly started putting in a higher low while stocks were still puking. That helped flag the turn.

Fast‑forward to now: $JNK and $HYG are not confirming this latest push in SPY. Stocks are pressing higher, high yield is stalling out.

That doesn’t guarantee a top, but when "Smart Money" refuses to play along, I take note.

[Crypto Tea @Cryptotea]

You become what you surround yourself with

[大宇 @BTCdayu]

预测本身没有价值，重要的是你基于预测做了什么、下了多大注。（霍华德·马克斯*《投资最重要的事》）

[pepeXBT @pepeXBT]

$crcl similar vibes to $pltr during 2022 bear

stablecoin adoption going exponential and there's only a few ways to get pure exposure

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

The best buying opportunities of the last 10 years all came from the same spot:

The retest of the previous bull market high.

2020
2022
2025
Now it’s at 611

Don’t believe me just look at the Weekly $SPY

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$SPX Actually did touch the 200dma today.

BIG test tomorrow and Friday to see if bulls can hold probably one of the most widely watched moving average of them all.

Last time it touched it led to a bigly bounce. But the prior two times it tried to bounce but ended up slicing right through.

Gonna be a battle.

[CryptoBullet @CryptoBullet1]

Bruh, it’s literally the same picture

At this point the MM is just making fun of us

$BTC #BTC 1W

[Sheetal Rijhwani @RijhwaniSheetal]

I used to have a peaceful life.
Then I started investing in Stock Market.

Now I worry about the economy, taxes, GDP, inflation, tariffs, wars, why Russia invaded Ukraine, the reasons behind the Israel conflict, the US-Iran war, the oil price war, why almost every country has a US military base but not the other way around, why Trump is doing what he's doing, why Khamenei getting killed sends our Nifty down and why a decision made in US reflects in my portfolio the next morning.
I didn't sign up for a geopolitics degree. I just wanted to make some extra money. 😭
Tough life bro. 🫡

[加密大猎手 @big_hunter11]

美股熊市剧本

标普指数当前的顶部形态与2015年非常相似：
最后的上涨阶段都是终结楔形；
顶部都是弧形顶。

2015年标普跌破顶部支撑位后出现了暴跌，3天内下跌10%完成A浪；之后B浪用两个多月反弹到顶部区域；又用三个半月完成了C浪下跌。

2026年标普也有可能出现类似的走势：
在跌破顶部支撑位后快速下跌，测试支撑区域1，目标位在6300-6500区间；
B浪用两个多月反弹，测试顶部区域，目标位在6750-6850区间；
C浪下跌耗时3-4个月，目标位在5800-6000区间。

与2015年不同的是，本轮周期顶部区域的横盘时间估计不会有2015年那么长（5个月），所以A浪的下探深度大概率会小于2015年的A浪。

#SPX #美股

[Terry @Terryca_x]

Sold half of the positions, holding the rest.

[Ben Sigman @bensig]

Get ready to lose your job…