Money supply is skyrocketing:
Global money supply is now up to a record $121.9 trillion.
Over the last 2 years, money supply has soared +$17.1 trillion, or +16%.
This also marks a +$27 trillion increase, or +28%, since the 2022 low.
This means that global money supply is surging +7% to +8% a year.
Meanwhile, US M2 money supply jumped +$1 trillion YoY, or +4.6%, to a record $22.7 trillion.
Money supply growth is accelerating.
Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes.
This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities).
The last major signal was at the bottom, high yield quietly started putting in a higher low while stocks were still puking. That helped flag the turn.
Fast‑forward to now: $JNK and $HYG are not confirming this latest push in SPY. Stocks are pressing higher, high yield is stalling out.
That doesn’t guarantee a top, but when "Smart Money" refuses to play along, I take note.
The best buying opportunities of the last 10 years all came from the same spot:
The retest of the previous bull market high.
2020
2022
2025
Now it’s at 611
Don’t believe me just look at the Weekly $SPY
$SPX Actually did touch the 200dma today.
BIG test tomorrow and Friday to see if bulls can hold probably one of the most widely watched moving average of them all.
Last time it touched it led to a bigly bounce. But the prior two times it tried to bounce but ended up slicing right through.
Gonna be a battle.
I used to have a peaceful life.
Then I started investing in Stock Market.
Now I worry about the economy, taxes, GDP, inflation, tariffs, wars, why Russia invaded Ukraine, the reasons behind the Israel conflict, the US-Iran war, the oil price war, why almost every country has a US military base but not the other way around, why Trump is doing what he's doing, why Khamenei getting killed sends our Nifty down and why a decision made in US reflects in my portfolio the next morning.
I didn't sign up for a geopolitics degree. I just wanted to make some extra money. 😭
Tough life bro. 🫡