In the last down cycle, #BTC, after losing the 100-week moving average, went through a rebound followed by more drops aiming for the 200-week moving average. I believe we could see the same happen again.
BITCOIN IS NOW IN THE DEEP VALUE ZONE
$BTC just dipped below the short-term holder MVRV bands - something it almost never does outside of major reset periods. When this metric rolls into “deep value,” it usually means two things: sentiment is washed out, and sellers are running out of ammo.
It doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, but historically this area has been where accumulation starts… not where smart money gives up.
Zoom out, and these levels tend to age well.
📸 FrankAFetter
🚨 BREAKING
TETHER JUST BOUGHT THE DIP WITH $1 BILLION.
FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY USED 1,000,000,000 $USDT FROM THEIR OWN TREASURY TO BUY $BTC
THEY DEFINITELY KNOW THE BOTTOM IS IN.
Below the Band
BTC has broken below key cost-basis levels amid weak spot demand and steady ETF outflows. Derivatives remain muted, with declining OI, cycle-low funding, and options activity skewed toward downside protection.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇
https://t.co/4KrOCbmVsG
BITCOIN IS HITTING OVERSOLD LEVELS
Extreme fear is taking over ; traders are selling fast, and that usually marks the bottom. A strong bounce could be coming soon.
BTC’s daily RSI just dropped to 26, its lowest since February, officially putting $BTC deep into oversold territory.
The last time RSI was this low, Bitcoin was sitting near its bottom at 76k… and it recovered aggressively afterward to the 120k region.
Chart: Coinbureau
US EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO
Tell me again - that this time is different!
#RecessionIsComing
Not here yet! Still massive move higher in Risk Assets coming.
But if you are an Macro Economist - and not seeing this slowdown.... 😉
Caso esse estudo se comprove efetivo mais uma vez, o fim do ciclo está mais próximo do que parece.
Tenham em mente que ter um colchão de liquidez para se deitar enquanto o mercado afunda, é o que separa os homens dos meninos.
A EMA de 200 semanal, está a mais ou menos umas três semanas de cruzar o topo do ciclo anterior.
Obrigado @0xguigo e @OutsiderPapini pelo tempo e pelos estudos.
Veremos ⌛️
🪐
The Trend Accumulation Score highlights a shift in recent days. Mid-sized $BTC holders are accumulating strongly, whale distribution has moderated, and smaller entities remain neutral. This points to fresh structural demand emerging despite continued large holder selling.
When the FED cuts - it is because the Economy is weakening (and they finally realize it).
That is not "Early Cycle".
That is "Late Cycle".
And the FED is always late - both in rate cuts and hikes - as they use lagging indicators to set Fed Fund Rate.
So, when FED cuts expect Bad Times ahead!
The Buffett Indicator has entered the exosphere. The 2000 dot-com bubble looks undervalued in comparison.
Gen Z will call it a relic; Buffett calls it the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.
God bless and Godspeed.
People are losing jobs.
Meanwhile, stocks are hitting new highs.
This disconnection between the real economy and the stock market is really concerning.
At some point, both these things will move in the same direction, and it'll be bad for markets.