The All-In Podcast

@chamath, @jason, @davidsacks, and @friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social, and poker.

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

David Friedberg: It's not rich vs poor, it's makers vs takers.

@friedberg:

“ The great lie is that there are two sides to society, that is the rich and the poor.

And the great truth is that there are two sides that are the makers and the takers.

The lie is that the rich are unfairly rich and the poor are unfairly poor, and therefore, the poor must take from the rich.

But the truth is that it's the takers that tell you that lie, that the real truth is that artists, plumbers, electricians, woodworkers, computer scientists, people that build, people that make from all walks of life, all income levels, all wealth brackets, are the makers.

And the takers are what Sacks calls this intelligentsia, the analysts, the espousers, the armchair mechanics, the critics, the commentators, the politicians. They are the takers.

They are the people that watch the rest of society make stuff, build stuff, specifically doing things that create value for other people in society. That's what a maker is.”

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

it’s makers vs takers

[Farzad 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 @farzyness]

David Friedberg for President.

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

POD UP! 🚨

Besties are back to discuss:

-- SpaceX's record IPO, Cursor deal, and the first trillionaire

-- The modern politburo and the new oligarchy (@friedberg cooks)

-- Behind the scenes of the Anthropic Fable ban

-- Iran War peace deal

(0:00) Bestie intros!

(2:41) The New Oligarchs, America's incoming politburo, and learned helplessness

(14:18) SpaceX's record breaking IPO, $60B Cursor acquisition, and the trillionaire reactions

(33:34) Behind the scenes of the Anthropic Fable ban

(1:01:18) Claude psychoanalyzes its creator, Dario Amodei

(1:14:31) Iran War MOU and the market impact

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

OpenAI’s CFO Teases Their First Device

The Jony Ive-designed product is dropping late 2026/early 2027:

Some descriptors:
– Lovable, feels human
– Seamless
– No thumbs
– Can talk to it
– Made for the post-iPhone Era

CFO Sarah Friar:

“We're changing into a consumer substrate that I cannot tell you what it is, but by the end of this year we will unveil it. Early next year, give or take.”

Chamath:

“But you've seen it and you've tried it?”

Sarah Friar:

“I’ve seen it, I've tried it.

When you start to think about where AI is taking us into more multimodality, remember, we've all been taught by the last generation of technology to talk with our thumbs.

It's a disease. You walk around, everyone's looking down, they don't look up anymore.

Multimodality is here. You're talking to your tool. I talk to Codex every day, and so that is changing rapidly.

But that is going to need much more kind of real-time compute...”

Jason:

“And you're building, with Jony Ive, this puck, these earpieces. So maybe tell us a little bit about that project.”

Friedberg:

“When you used it, was it like having an iPhone for the first time?”

Friar:

“What Jony and team are really good at is bringing humanity to devices, and I don't really know how to explain that well, but when you see it, you feel it.

Jason:

“It feels natural in some way?”

Friar:

“It feels very natural, but it feels very lovable.

And I can't really explain what that emotion is…”

Jason:

“Intimate in some way in terms of not taking your phone out, and it's seamless, is what I've heard from people who played with it.”

Sarah Friar:

“Yeah. Technology can be very mechanistic, but we all know great design just makes everything fade away.”

Thanks to our partners for making this possible!

EY (@EYnews) - Great tech starts with a big idea. From startup to scale, EY helps tech founders get financials right early so they can focus on what’s next.
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NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
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[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

Bill Ackman Explains How He Got Wendy’s to Spin Off Tim Hortons in 2005

@BillAckman's early career stories are insane!

“One of our first investments was Wendy's International.

Wendy's owned Tim Horton's, the Canadian coffee and donut chain.

And the value of Tim Hortons was more than the entire value of Wendy's.

We had this very simple idea: Buy Wendy's, spin off Tim Hortons, double our money.

And we bought 10% of the company, and I called the CEO, and he didn't return my call. And I called him again, and he didn't return my call.

I literally couldn't get a return phone call. That was the beginning.

So we actually called a friend who worked at Blackstone, and Steve Schwarzman agreed to write a fairness opinion on what Wendy's would be worth if we spun off Tim Hortons.

We kind of mailed it in, filed it publicly, and six weeks later, they spun off Tim Hortons.

And then the CEO finally called me back. He thanked me.

He had gotten fired, but he thanked me, because he had a huge exit package, and he was very happy.”

Thanks to our partners for making this possible!

EY (@EYnews) - EY helps private equity firms turn market insight into action, navigating complexity and unlocking new paths to growth and long-term value.
https://t.co/8EU3lnwKTI

NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
https://t.co/cUEk8db7Sw

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

Wake up at Liquidity with the best coffee and bakery experience you can imagine

De'Longhi + Bouchon + a beautiful space = Perfection

Apply to lock in early bird tickets for Liquidity 2027:
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Thank you to De'Longhi, All-In's official coffee partner.

De'longhi is the global leader in espresso machines, blending Italian design and innovation to make the everyday delicious. https://t.co/KXmGBhnx8g

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

All-In is coming to Paris!

@Jason will be interviewing founders and CEOs at @RaiseSummit 👀

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

David Friedberg: The AI Jobs Panic Is a Crock of Sh*t

Why? The revenue potential outweighs the cost savings by 100x.

“There is no job loss with AI. I've said it a thousand times, and I will say it again, and again, and again.

What I see on the ground, and what I've seen at dozens of companies, including my company that I run, there are two sides to a business.

There is revenue and there’s costs.

On the cost side of the equation, AI can be used to reduce humans doing things that cost money, to some extent. The effect there, I would argue, is nominal.

The real opportunity with AI is on the revenue side, where suddenly one engineer can do 100x or 1000x what they used to be able to do, meaning you can make more products at your company, whether those are agricultural seed products, or boats and ships, or software for companies, or clothing, or what have you.

Because of AI, everyone has the ability to expand their revenue base to create more products, and that is the foundation of good economic prosperity. It is called productivity. We can grow productivity in this country with AI.

So where I see AI being used is on the revenue side 100x more than the cost side. And in that equation, people are hiring like crazy. We cannot hire enough people.

I just had a review meeting with my product and engineering team two days ago, and they're like, ‘We want to add an extra 15 headcount to our engineering squads because we have all this opportunity to do stuff that we couldn't otherwise do.’ So we are going to hire more people.

And to Sacks' point, we are seeing that show up in the jobs numbers. The idea that AI is going to destroy jobs is a Luddite idea that is being disproven every single day, and I see it on the ground.

It is only a matter of time before people wake up to this and they realize that this narrative that they've all been sold is a crock of sh*t.”

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

*friedberg long post alert*

[david friedberg @friedberg]

they’re not jobs if they’re not valued. they’re not valued if there aren’t customers out there willing to pay them for their great work. needing the government to “create” a job is tantamount to welfare and that level of welfare resolves these individuals to a dependency on the government and lack of economic mobility. and chains our people, collectively, to a more indentured future.

you may be well intentioned but you have, and always will, fail to see the destitute folly of government as a job creation engine.

i have tried to engage you on this topic, in good faith, with empiricism and reasoning, but you have only dodged my points and pivoted to some populist refrain about the importance of taxation and the evils of productivity-driven success.

i can only assume you’re dodging these truths because you and the rest of the politburo leadership have deemed the conversation unsafe speech and put your oligopoly at risk.

let’s leave it at that then.

perhaps if your ways get their day, we can all bask in the glories of the dark ages ahead.

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

David Friedberg: California’s Voting System Looks Fraudulent, But It’s Working Exactly as Designed

@friedberg believes California’s extremely loose election laws enable “appointments” not free elections.

Why? The voting data in LA makes no statistical sense.

“ Pratt's post-election mail-in ballots declined by 1/3.

So statistically, the population of people that send in their ballots late reduced for Pratt by 1/3, increased for Nithya Raman by 80%, and Karen Bass 10% less, if you just look at the mail-in ballots before and after election day as a comparison.

I don't know if there's a sociopolitical way that you can assess those statistics and assume that these are individuals casting their individual vote for who they think should be Mayor of LA.

Basically, the concentration of incremental votes that Nithya Raman got came around the Skid Row area in Los Angeles.

But when you look at the basic statistics of what happened in person, mail-in before, mail-in after Election Day, it becomes a real statistical quagmire on how did this sort of a sociopolitical shift happen in such a way that it did?

Now, there was a report published, and they highlighted the 2018 California midterm elections and the challenges that they saw arise in that midterm election because of some of the legislative changes that were made.

First, California Assembly Bill 1921 legalized the practice of unlimited ballot harvesting in the state. What that means is that any individual in the state of California has the right to go and collect ballots from any other individuals, regardless of relationship, fill them out, and send them in.

California, two years later, 18 months later, also passed a law that made it permanent that every person registered in the state of California would get a ballot, so tens of millions of ballots then get mailed out.

Then there was another series of laws that were passed that said anyone can register to vote. You don't need to prove your citizenship. You can use a gym membership card as an example.

So anyone can register to vote. There is no proof of ID when you get a ballot. There is no demonstration that the person who fills out the ballot has anything to do with the individual who's supposed to be voting that ballot, and it is legal for an individual to go out and collect hundreds or thousands of ballots, ship them in, and they will all qualify in these kind of mail-in ballot voting processes.

So there's nothing illegal or fraudulent going on. In fact, the system is operating exactly as intended.

It has been set up and structured in a way that with the right construct, you can get an individual appointed, not elected, but appointed to a particular role in government under a, quote, ‘free election’ in California.”

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

LATE NIGHT DROP! 🚨

Big show. Core four are back.

-- Anthropic's Fable Backlash

-- Nationalizing AI, and the "Capitalist Cucks"

-- Inflation Heats Up

-- California’s Broken Election System

(0:00) Besties are back!

(0:19) Anthropic gets massive backlash over secret Fable nerfing and privacy concerns

(29:16) The AI regulatory capture trap, pragmatic safety solutions

(37:59) Nationalizing AI: Trump/Sanders, justifications, and AI's "Capitalist Cucks"

(59:22) Liquidity recap: Best moments and takeaways

(1:05:39) Inflation heats up: CPI and PPI see 3+ year highs

(1:12:27) California's loose election laws creating integrity doubts

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

LIQUIDITY: All-In's Inaugural Best Ideas Pitch Competition! 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades

This is the FINAL Liquidity post.

The Besties will be back tomorrow for the regular Friday pod.

Thanks to Aaron Cowen, Dan Dreyfus, Oleg Nodelman, and Kyle Samani for the amazing pitches!

(0:00) Chamath explains the Best Ideas format

(2:31) Suvretta Capital Management's Aaron Cowen pitches MGM Resorts

(13:07) Bornite Capital's Dan Dreyfus pitches Talen Energy

(27:19) EcoR1 Capital's Oleg Nodelman pitches Aktis Oncology

(40:20) Multicoin Capital's Kyle Samani pitches GEODNET

(54:50) The Besties recap the pitches and announce winners

Thanks to our partners for making this possible!

EY (@EYnews) - EY helps private equity firms turn market insight into action, navigating complexity and unlocking new paths to growth and long-term value.
https://t.co/8EU3lnwKTI

NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
https://t.co/cUEk8db7Sw

Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
https://t.co/PWuXqT4wYa

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

LIQUIDITY: PA Senators John Fetterman and Dave McCormick join The Besties

-- Bipartisanship in 2026

-- Why the Senate is the least popular it's ever been, and the filibuster question

-- Insane amount of money in US politics

-- Datacenters, AI, and PA's blue collar boom

-- Graham Platner, and how extremism wins primaries

(0:00) PA Senators Fetterman and McCormick join the Besties

(0:33) Bipartisanship in 2026, rejecting extremism

(6:37) All-time unpopularity in the Senate, the filibuster question, tribalism

(13:33) Fixing wealth concentration in the US

(19:51) Graham Platner, why extremism wins primaries, and what it means for the future

(28:12) How AI and energy are playing a part in PA's blue collar boom, dark money funding misinformation

(41:05) Insane level of money in politics, fixing the broken system

@SenFettermanPA @SenMcCormickPA

Thanks to our partners for making this possible!

EY (@EYnews) - EY helps private equity firms turn market insight into action, navigating complexity and unlocking new paths to growth and long-term value.
https://t.co/8EU3lnwKTI

NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
https://t.co/cUEk8db7Sw

Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
https://t.co/PWuXqT4wYa

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

LIQUIDITY: Dan Dreyfus on the Future of Critical Minerals

-- Copper as the next AI bottleneck

-- Investing in the commodity supercycle

-- Dollar debasement

-- Blue collar boom, rebuilding American infrastructure

(0:00) Dan Dreyfus Presents: The Future of Critical Minerals

(0:33) America's "Capital Light Era" is over, rapid supply/demand shocks

(5:40) Impact of China cutting off the US from critical minerals

(8:18) Copper's Rise: The next 18 years need as much as the last 10,000

(12:00) Dollar Debasement: $140T in debt and why hard assets win

(13:50) The Grid is Dying: Blackouts, bottlenecks, and the craft labor crisis

(19:10) How to invest in the commodity supercycle

Thanks to our partners for making this possible!

EY (@EYnews) - Liquidity, growth, and what’s next for organizations were front and center at the Summit. EY helps turn liquidity challenges into sustainable value.
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NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
https://t.co/cUEk8db7Sw

Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
https://t.co/PWuXqT4wYa

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

LIQUIDITY: Bill Maris on Broken VC Math and Google's Secret Weapon Against OpenAI and Anthropic

(0:00) Bill Maris joins the Besties!

(0:33) Four critical lessons from a career in technology

(5:58) Building Google Ventures with data and machine learning

(9:51) Why small VC funds beat big ones on average

(14:36) OpenAI's valuation problem and the coming AI price war

(19:09) AI is at the "Atari Stage": what comes next?

(25:23) VC's broken incentives and the future of deep tech

Thanks to our partners for making this possible!

EY (@EYnews) - Agentic AI is introducing a new investment discipline. As AI shifts to consumption-based models, EY connects spend to enterprise value.
https://t.co/c6sx2BeVNd

NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
https://t.co/cUEk8db7Sw

Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
https://t.co/PWuXqT4wYa

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

LIQUIDITY: Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora

@nikesharora joins The Besties:

-- The Claude Mythos hype is real (found 5 years worth of bugs in 6 weeks)

-- Analytical SaaS is DEAD, infra software is undervalued

-- M&A playbook

-- Armchair CEO: Google first to $10T?

(0:00) Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora joins the Besties!

(0:47) Claude Mythos found 5-6 years worth of vulnerabilities in 6 weeks

(5:15) Are cyber defenders losing the race against AI attackers?

(6:50) Analytical SaaS is dead, so what survives the AI wave?

(14:06) If models become a utility, where will the money be made?

(20:35) Armchair CEO: Nikesh rates Waymo, Google, and OpenAI

(28:22) Palo Alto's M&A playbook and the path to $1 trillion

Thanks to our partners for making this possible!

EY (@EYnews) - AI ambition isn’t enough. https://t.co/kg7Zr2F27g Value Blueprints move organizations beyond pilots embedding measurable business value by design.
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NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
https://t.co/cUEk8db7Sw

Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
https://t.co/PWuXqT4wYa

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

LIQUIDITY: Inside the Private Stock Market Boom

Brad Gerstner (@altcap), Gavin Baker (@GavinSBaker), and Kelly Rodriques (@Forge_Global) join @Jason and @chamath to discuss the secondary market gold rush.

(0:00) Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker, and Kelly Rodriques join the Besties!

(0:47) Secondary Markets are Booming & Competing with IPOs

(3:10) Why Companies are Staying Private So Long?

(9:22) SPVs, the Forge-Schwab Deal, Democratizing Private Market Access

(13:28) Secondary Markets as Exit Liquidity

(27:00) The Private Market Bubble?

(32:03) Hottest Secondary Companies Right Now

Thanks to our partners for making this possible!

EY (@EYnews) - Agentic AI is introducing a new investment discipline. As AI shifts to consumption-based models, EY connects spend to enterprise value.
https://t.co/c6sx2BeVNd

NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
https://t.co/cUEk8db7Sw

Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
https://t.co/PWuXqT4wYa

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

LIQUIDITY: The IPO Comeback Panel

@altcap, @andrewdfeldman, and @Will4Planet join @Jason and @chamath for a panel on the 2026 IPO market from a founder's perspective.

(0:00) CEOs Andrew Feldman (@cerebras) and Will Marshall (@planet) join the Besties!

(2:05) Both CEOs on going public: Impact on employees, customers, and business operations

(13:18) Timelines for datacenters in space

(19:28) Cerebras business breakdown, AI's impact on the silicon market

(24:45) How Founder/CEOs think about liquidity on the road to going public

Thanks to our partners for making this possible!

EY (@EYnews) - Great tech starts with a big idea. From startup to scale, EY helps tech founders get financials right early so they can focus on what’s next.
https://t.co/2RztVYiTEM

NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
https://t.co/cUEk8dbFI4

Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
https://t.co/PWuXqT54NI