The Boston View

Made in Massachusetts | “When it is dark enough, you can see the stars.”

[Midnight Capital @Midnight_Captl]

If you’re not down more than 5% today you don’t really want it that bad man

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

OUCH! Nasdaq 100 plunged 4.8%, biggest 1day drop since Liberation Day.

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

Nibbled again on $NVDA--with no expectation it works out anytime soon. But this morning, she was trading at 17X Fiscal Year 2028 (Feb1 2027-JAN 31-2028).

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

Was $AVGO the gateway to summer trading?

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

Back in the day when the hedge funds moved the market it was right in here--where large paper profits intersected with early June, and the start of summer--that the hedgies would rug pull to protect their gains. We're no longer in that world, but not a bad map for individuals.

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

@HunterBiden @Harvie3Culley Good morning Hunter. Klimt, Deibenkorn, Hockney. I pick up influences from these in your work. Quite a trio. there's likely more no doubt. Thoughts?

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

Precisely.

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

Serious Q: If Damodaran, the literal godfather of valuation, is at $1.3 trillion for $SPCX, where do you think my hipster cousin from Venice Beach who thinks “spaceships are cool” draws the line when setting his Day 1 allocation on Robinhood?

[Jeff Stein @jstein_star]

SCOOP: US officials have had talks about having government acquire shares in AI giants, sources say

Altman has discussed w/ senior officials, including Trump. Did again recently

May be *ceding* shares to USG - not a purchase

Shares could go 2 dividend

https://t.co/ks2Yzgr2W0

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

As I discussed on this CNBC interview earlier today with @KellyCNBC @SullyCNBC semiconductor investors should be thrilled today.

This is what I posted on X on Sunday night “Over the near-term, the overall market at some point will need to take a breather from increasingly overbought technical conditions. After nine straight weekly gains, the S&P is now up 19% from its recent closing low on March 30th. But I feel like any losses will be contained to the typical ~5% pullback which is typically seen three to four times per year.”

But then the $SOXX (semiconductor index) gained 8.5% in just the first three days of this week!

Coming into today, I was concerned over the increasing near-term bubble like behavior in the which the SOXX was up a staggering 95% from the market closing lows on March 30th through yesterday June 3rd which drove a 19% rally in the S&P.

Other signs of near-term AI/Semiconductor froth included:
1. $MU +19% in a day off of an analyst upgrade
2. $DELL +33% in a day in reaction to earnings
3. $HPE +19% in a day in reaction to earnings
4. $MRVL +33% in a day in reaction to comments at Computex

I thought the big decline in the pre-market by the stock of $AVGO due to just reiterating their AI guidance would hit the SOXX which in turn would hit the S&P.

Instead, $AVGO declined “just” 12.6%, the SOXX lost only 2.2% and the S&P gained 0.4%. Oil declining 3% today certainly helped along with bond yields heading lower. Nevertheless, semiconductor bulls should be thrilled at the resiliency of a sector that looked ripe to get crushed from technically extended levels when one of the bell weathers got hit.

While I believe this sell-off in semis could continue for several days given the exuberance coming in, I think this will be a short-term move in the SOXX to work off overbought conditions vs “the top.”

Names I like on a dip include:
1) $INTC & $AMD (1 GPU per 1 CPU w/ Agentic vs 8 to 1 prior)
2) $NVDA 25x CY26 PE for 80% rev growth
3) Analog semiconductors given power requirements of next gen GPUs

To reiterate prior posts, the reason why I am still bullish through early next year is Agentic AI. This arguably kicked off with the formalization of OpenClaw on January 30th and requires 10-100x more token production versus chat-based AI.

My biggest concern remains oil prices and their impact on inflation, bond yields, economic growth and the Fed. Given mid-term elections coming up in early November, I believe President Trump wants to extricate himself from this war as soon as he can.

In my opinion, oil needs to get back down into that ~$80 range versus the mid-$60 level prior to the war. Historically, when oil has spiked and has stayed there for around two quarters, the odds increase dramatically for a recession. Investors forget that oil prices more than doubled in 1999.

In summary, I remain bullish over the long-term given 1) S&P earnings are expected to increase 25% this year driven by the advent of Agentic AI, 2) I believe oil prices will come down, and 3) new Fed Chairman Warsh is likely to push back against calls to raise rates. Time as always will tell.

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

#singularity

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

Our internal data shows Claude is accelerating AI development—a possible path to recursive self-improvement, or AI autonomously building a more capable successor.

It’s happening faster than we thought, and the implications deserve greater attention. https://t.co/OVVPJO7VQx

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

Intriguing that a downdraft in the memory sector has occurred with 3 weeks to go until $MU earnings, on Wednesday June 24. Still think that date has the potential to be the gateway to summer trading, and the tiresome chop. Front running of the front running?

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

More bears than bulls... again

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

Cloudbear RT'ing Ed Zitron: chef's kiss.

[Citrini @citrini]

Short vol summer?

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

@gpaisa7 6 weeks?

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

Generally don't do a lot of AH trading (it's actually something @IBKR does really well) but I just couldn't resist taking a little $AVGO on that cascade downward past 15 minutes. Nabbed some at $416.

[Burak @Tradingchannels]

Well, $SOXX shorts had been warned.

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

Nibbled on $NVDA and $GOOGL common. First time in a long while that I actually added to my $NVDA position. I do not expect to be rewarded anytime soon.

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

@NYYTKM The next phase of AWS, and their early and promising trainium project.

[The Boston View @TheBostonView]

I'm betting against this outcome, but yeah, my bet may turn out wrong. $AMZN

[David Keller, CMT @DKellerCMT]

Yet another "Magnificent" 7 stock is threatening a major breakdown. $AMZN sits right at the 50-day MA today after confirming a double top around 275. $AMZN < $50 with RSI pushing below 40 could signal a new distribution phase!