TheCa$hier

Banker by day, thinker by night, and gay full time.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 71 months, by far the longest in history.

[Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA]

Oil in United States (WTI) below $69/barrel as geopolitical threats ease and supply normalizes.

via Bloomberg and BCA

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

The Next Oil Rally Could Be Driven By Stockpile Refilling https://t.co/7yfgCKhOkj

[Henrikh @henrikhinai]

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio says the US economy has "plaque in its arteries"- and the AI bubble is about to be "pricked" by a $2 trillion reality check

"Wealth is what you think you have... money is what you can actually spend. The crisis starts when everyone tries to swap one for the other"

The man who manages the world's largest hedge fund warns that we have officially passed the "point of no return" While the world is mesmerized by AI, the plumbing of the global financial system is failing

Here is why Dalio believes a "perfect storm" is hitting the markets:

> The $2 Trillion Hole:
- The US is spending $7 trillion but only earning $5 trillion. Debt service is now "squeezing out" spending like plaque in a circulatory system - and a crisis is now inevitable

> The "Pricking" of AI:
- Every miracle technology produces a bubble. Investors are confusing "buying technology" with "buying expensive stocks" - and the gap between wealth and actual spendable money is reaching a breaking point

> Taiwan’s One-Week Trigger:
- It is entirely within China’s power to blockade Taiwan. If they stop the flow of chips for just one week, every AI stock and the entire global market will crash instantly

> Wealth vs. Money:
- You can’t spend "valuation." Bubbles burst the moment billionaires are forced to sell their wealth to pay taxes or service debt - converting "fake" wealth into "real" money is what pricks the bubble

Bookmark & Watch today

[Sergio Ferrero @calotonterias]

Las personas con más cociente intelectual tienden a tener más paciencia, menor impulsividad y menor propensión a caer en la mayoría de sesgos conductuales. Estas características, junto con su mejor comprensión numérica y probabilística, ayudan a que tengan mayor éxito económico.

[Kirk Borne @KirkDBorne]

“Introduction to Applied Linear Algebra: Vectors, Matrices, and Least Squares”

473-page PDF download here:
https://t.co/8mQWClkE8p

[Gabriela Siller Pagaza @GabySillerP]

Cambio en precio en el mercado internacional de materias primas (var % trimestral):
- Acero: 10.21%
- Cobre: 8.91%
- WTI: -30.84%
- Brent: -38.39%
- Plata: -21.58%
- Gas Natural en Europa: -14.18%
- Oro: -14.01%
- Aluminio: -11.00%
- Maíz: -9.89%
- Jugo de naranja: -9.08%
- Gasolina en Estados Unidos: -8.99%
- Madera: -8.01%
- Trigo: -6.29%
- Soya: -4.57%
- Níquel: -4.88%

[Andres Moreno Jaramillo 📊 @andresmania]

Variación de las bolsas de valores en Latinoamérica en los últimos 12 meses:

🇵🇪 Perú +73,87%
🇦🇷 Argentina +50,03%
🇨🇴 Colombia +37,03%
🇨🇱 Chile +31,03%
🇧🇷 Brasil +26,62%
🇲🇽 México +17,14%

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Unfortunately for Trump, while obviously connected, crude oil (white line, $/bbl) and gasoline (blue, ¢/gal) are actually different commodities.

Crude market currently loose (yep, temporarily, surprising but true), but gasoline near its tightest ever relative to crude.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Tanker capacity entering the Gulf (East-to-West Hormuz transits) is running ahead of expectations, at least thus far.

I'm seeing 8 confirmed VLCC entries yesterday alone.

Trailing 10-day average sitting around ~10 MMbpd.

We'll soon see if this is sustainable, or just an early boost from the most eager operators.

Interestingly, thus far confirmed loadings are actually lagging this initially strong empty tanker entry pace.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🛢️ 2 numbers from the latest EIA data tell the whole US oil story:

inventories are draining fast, and both production and exports just hit records.

US petroleum inventories fell by 53.9 million barrels month-on-month in April, down to 1,641 million barrels.

A draw that size is significant.

Barrels are leaving storage faster than they're going in.

At the same time, US crude production climbed to a record 13.934 mbpd in April.

The growth came from everywhere.
The Gulf added 119 kbpd, New Mexico 65, Texas 36.

And exports hit a record too: 5.593 mbpd of US crude shipped abroad in April.

The buyers show how global US oil has become.

The Netherlands led at 1,210 kbpd, the gateway into Europe.

Then South Korea (840), Japan (660), Canada (415), Italy (301), and Singapore (299).

So here's the tension.
Record output and record exports, yet inventories still falling hard.

That means demand at home and abroad is pulling crude faster than even record production can replace.

US demand hit 20.7 mbpd in April, up year-on-year.

The market is tighter than the headlines suggest, and America is now feeding the world's barrels. Watch the draw.

[Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop]

Worse than 2008

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: China

Chinese Real Estate Market has fallen to its lowest prices in AT LEAST the last 20 years 📉🏡

[Andres Moreno Jaramillo 📊 @andresmania]

Especies bvc que más BAJAN 2026
@bvcColombia

[Andres Moreno Jaramillo 📊 @andresmania]

Especies bvc que más SUBEN 2026
@bvcColombia

[EscapeFromUtopia @utopia_escape]

Oil, the one commodity that it never overbought on the monthly cahrt. So strange.

(On the daily its now oversold 9 days in a row.)

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

We've seen an implosion in the financial demand for oil and the 50:1 ratio of financial:physical is likely distorting price relative to medium-term fundamentals. Inventories will continue to fall, rigs will soon start to stack, physical demand metrics like refining margins remain strong, floating/unsanctioned Iranian barrels will soon be absorbed, Iran will likely remain in control of the Strait, and China will at some point return to the market. What then???

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

"Soros is the best loss taker I've ever seen. He doesn't care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn't work, he's confident enough about his ability to win on other trades. There are a lot of shoes on the shelf; wear only the ones that fit. If you're extremely confident, taking a loss doesn't bother you."

Stanley Druckenmiller

[Diego Puertas @misterpuertas]

Los hedge funds reforzaron su apuesta por salud en las dos últimas semanas, liderados por fondos multiestrategia/macro y long/short.

Las compras se concentraron en biotecnología, especialmente clínica, impulsadas sobre todo por cierre de cortos.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

(WCTW) Today's Oil Price Disconnect Is History In The Making

To give you an idea of how insane this market is, this is the highest 3-2-1 crack spread relative to Brent price in the history of the oil market.

https://t.co/QVHL0KrZLk