@CliffordAsness My unsupervised clustering just merged BTC and NQ into the same latent cluster after the synchronized moves. The autoencoder is now refusing to believe in alternative data 😆
The Antti papers keep coming! Part 7 (yes, 7) of Antti‘s series on investor expectations (finally, after Parts 5-6 on historical returns and objective expected returns) drills into subjective expected returns on the S&P500. While objective expectations are often inferred from market yields, subjective expectations are best “heard directly from the horse’s mouth“ using survey data. Ever-growing academic research reveals overly extrapolative expectations among retail investors and equity analysts (while institutional investors and rates analysts are more contrarian), and more so at short than long horizons. Links below.