🚨 Japan Just Broke The French Bond Market
One Tokyo fund (Sumitomo Mitsui DS) didn’t trim exposure. It dumped every French government bond it held and rotated into German Bunds and short-term Japanese paper.
Not a reduction. Full exit. Something that even shocked the Financial Street.
The France-Germany 10-year spread blew past 140 basis points, the widest gap since the euro crisis.
France's 5-year CDS has spiked up to 81 basis points, the highest since 2013. The higher the number, the greater the risk of national bankruptcy.
French domestic holders are now facing a deeper mark-to-market loss and a less liquid exit to sell into the same one-way market.
Japanese investors still sit on roughly ¥25 trillion of French debt, second only to American holders and this was a single manager’s book.
Carry trades that funded higher-yielding global debt market with cheap yen just got a live demo of how fast the unwind can hit.
When the bid from Japan disappears, the largest European sovereign market has to find new buyers at the same time its own government is arguing over a deficit plan that markets already distrust.
If more Japanese money follows the same exit, the same flow that once compressed euro spreads can reprice them in the other direction.
We now understand what @yutokanzakireal meant by saying “Japan is bringing the entire house down” in response to Scott Bessent’s “I am the house now” statement:
Ending cheap-yen funding is forcing a margin call on the leveraged global debt system built on the carry trade and not just the U.S. leverage.
France just got the first real look at what Japan’s wealth returning to the homeland looks like.
If AI can trade stocks so well, why are all these AI-managed portfolios at Fidelity, Schwab and elsewhere struggling to even beat the S&P 500?
And where are the AI portfolios winning the U.S. Investing Championship?
Backtests and predictions are easy. Show me the audited, real-money results. That’s where the bullshit stops.
The answer is because it can't. There is zero evidence of any enduring or consistent results from purely AI or computer manager portfolios that can even outperform the S&P 500. Fact.
Why do you post Bears vs. Bulls stuff all the time, Norse?
The market is in a cyclical Bull market phase right now. Since 2002, the market has been in a cyclical Bull phase 87% of the time. This is why we drill on Bears. They are wrong 87% of the "time." We do not ride out cyclical Bears. We are not even close to buy and hold.
We love and look forward to the cyclical resets. 8 since 2002. But we do not let bias creep in. What's the cyclical primary trend?
Again, Bears are only right 13% of the time vs. Bulls right 87% of the time, yet what dominates the internet? Bearish narratives. Deeply psychological...
This is why we post how we do. Most cannot figure this out and just fight the trend with the big traffic accounts here. The Perma labeling really only fits the Bears since 2002.
Hrvatska prima na znanje prvostupanjsku presudu Specijaliziranih vijeća Kosova. Riječ je o nepravomoćnoj presudi te ne želimo prejudicirati konačni ishod postupka.
Istodobno, ova presuda ne mijenja povijesni kontekst rata na Kosovu niti činjenicu da su Kosovo i njegovo stanovništvo bili žrtve represije i teških zločina Miloševićeva režima.
Individualna odgovornost pojedinca ne može biti osnova za relativiziranje tih zločina niti za dovođenje u pitanje slobode i neovisnosti Kosova.
ENJOY the last Rally of the TECH Bubble
The Crash will be similar to 2000 for Tech stocks.
And the real Economy will suffer more than 2008-09.
If you are long-term Bull here.... you are wrong!
Not "there" yet.... but it is coming.
I am BULLISH short-term!
@APompliano - I dedicate this to you 😉👊
You can be Bullish - but also now where to step out!
Have a great weekend!
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