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Minnesota has already accepted 202,252 early and absentee ballots during the first four weeks of voting. At the same point in 2022, that number was 172,520 or a 17% increase.

Another state where participation is running ahead of the last midterm, with plenty of voting to come.

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In Tennessee: almost 400,000 people have voted early or absentee through the first five days — 69% more than at the same point in 2022. But compared with 2018? Turnout is actually 23% LOWER. Will be investigating further….

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South Carolina just recorded 97,968 votes on the first day of early voting. That's more than DOUBLE the 42,558 ballots cast on opening day in the 2022 midterms. (But still below the 126,726 recorded on the first day in 2024.)

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The bigger question is one we won’t know the answer to until after Election Day: Are voters casting their ballots earlier, or are more people participating who would otherwise have stayed home? 🫣

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Across these states, we are seeing a few different (and related) themes: unusually high early participation, changes in the partisan composition of early voters, and changes in voting methods or election administration.

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As always - we never know what we are getting in Florida:

As of October 20, registered Democrats have returned roughly 395,000 mail ballots, compared with 341,000 from registered Republicans. But among people voting early in person, Republicans and Democrats are nearly tied.

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Should also note that Ohio has changed its voting laws since the last midterm. This year, most mail ballots must actually arrive by Election Day, rather than qualifying for a post-election grace period. We will be watching if these new laws change how people vote.

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Say with me - OH - IO!

In Ohio, October 15, more than 452,000 early ballots had been cast: approximately 312,000 in person and 140,000 by mail.

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North Carolina had already recorded more than 733,000 early ballots by EOD on October 19, a 38% increase from this point in 2022.

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Here's a little something outta North Carolina:

Compared this point in 2022, early ballots cast by registered Democrats are up 53%, registered Republican ballots are down 5%, and ballots cast by unaffiliated voters? Up 61%.

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Heading West to Nevada:

By Monday night, 151,735 ballots had been cast statewide. Registered Democrats accounted for roughly 8,350 more ballots than registered Republicans.

According to election analyst @JonRalston, about 11% registered D had voted, compared with 9% of R

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And this isn't just about congressional elections: Virginians are also voting on constitutional amendments involving reproductive rights, marriage and voting rights.

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Let’s give Virginia's early-voting numbers some attention:

By October 17, nearly 678,000 Virginians had voted early — 79% more than at the comparable point in the 2022 midterms. And by October 19, that number had climbed above 726,000!!

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In Iowa, 33,418 absentee ballots had been returned 18 days before Election Day, compared with 20,799 at the same point in 2022. That's a 61% increase… which is even more notably considering fewer absentee ballots had actually been requested than in 2022.

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For our Maine-iacs: Already, 101,777 voters have returned accepted absentee ballots. This is a is a 31% increase compared with roughly 77,700 at the same point in the 2022 midterms.

And 53% of returned ballots come from registered Democrats.

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That's roughly one in six early voters who sat out the last midterm election. It's a sign that this election is drawing participation from beyond the usual midterm electorate.

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In Georgia - One of the most interesting things we're seeing in isn't just high turnout, but who is turning out. So far, 15.6% of Georgians who have cast ballots did not vote in the 2022 midterms.

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Harris County also shattered its midterm record, with turnout up 72% over 2022.

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Some initial takes on early voting:

Voter participation in Texas is extraordinary. Dallas County just broke its all-time first-day early voting record, with more than 76,000 ballots cast — almost 35% higher than the first day of early voting of the 2024 presidential election.

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No family should have to lose someone because doctors were afraid of what would happen if they provided the care she needed.

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Anti-abortion activists call themselves “pro-life.” But policies enacted in the name of protecting life put women’s lives in danger.

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My heart breaks for Tierra Walker, her children, and everyone who loved her.

https://t.co/Fi5tvQORmb