Thordin

BTC Quant Trader.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

Just keep it simple folks.

What do you see everytime Bitcoin forms a bearish divergence at overbought levels on weekly timeframe?

That last ATH on 6 October was one of the largest bearish divergences in history.

No noise - just data.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

High probability Bitcoin bear market low forecast for 5-12 October 2026. Price approx. $18k. Been adding to shorts on every rally since our last updates from Sept-Oct 2025, where our predictive modelling called the bull market top. Wishing everyone a continued profitable bear market.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

On trading days where you feel palpable fear, remember to take a step back, breathe slowly, and ask yourself mentally “who is aware of fear”. That should give the amygdala a slight pause from hijacking any trading decisions. Repeat as many times as necessary to regain a calm and calculated frame of mind.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

Current high probability target for the next meaningful low for BTC and crypto is 3-8 January. Holding my shorts from October-November until then (as posted).

Anticipating a major relief rally in January into late February and then we crash into Q2-Q3 2026.

Or at least that’s the current high probability flow. I’ll update if the macro targets change.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

Well those shorts are flying from the bear calls we made for a bull market top in August-October.

I don't see any major support for BTC until late December. So am looking to add to shorts on any bounces from here.

Currently looking like we may get the 'complacency' rally in January-February, but TBC. Then we move in to complete market capitulation for Q2 2026.

Probabilities STRONGLY favour that we now move down 70-80% into Q3 2026.

Enjoy the shorts weather all 🏝️

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

Alright, markets are starting to shit the bed. Time for a FU bounce soon.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

Bitcoin shorts are flying 💸 who's geared up for a Bear Market?

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

Just keep it simple folks.

What do you see everytime Bitcoin forms a bearish divergence at overbought levels on weekly timeframe?

That last ATH on 6 October was one of the largest bearish divergences in history.

No noise - just data.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

Favouring 14 August 2025 as the bull market top. Am short from 118k and building short portions on every rally. Awaiting one more rally to 116k for BTC then I’ll be all in on the short side. I’m prepared to be invalidated, but there’s nothing bullish about this global shit show! Given that we are in a time zone for a 4 year cycle top, I’d rather be bearish and wrong than bullish and right. Because the downside risk here is BTC plummeting down into another 70-80% 300 day correction. Stay safe fam 😘

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

If Bitcoin bulls defend 114,500 today then short term bulls have a great shot at new ATHs soon. If it breaks, then I’d start trimming personally. There is a greater than 90% probability that the final ATHs won’t be until after 5 Sept, combined with the historic record ETH shorts, this is really a very very nice long setup this week! I suspect if we hold for another 2 weeks and start selling into a short squeeze we'll be very happy. In terms of markets drifting down since the recent ATH, it has trapped a lot of liquidity in short positions, setting up a nice short squeeze for whales to exit their longs into the bull market top next month. If anything I’d say this downside right before the bull market top was engineered for exactly this reason - use bearish August season to trap shorts, run a short squeeze into Sept - trap breakout long traders and then the Finpocalypse on 9/11 +/-. Watch 114,500 today for support. May get a quick liquidity sweep below so watch 1-4h closes for confirmation before any knee jerk reactions. If they sweep below 114,500 today, expect John Wick to show up for team Bulls. If 114,500 breaks into daily close, I’m not quite sure how BTC could recover for new ATHs from there.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

The Bitcoin bull market top is between 8-22 September, with a near 100% probability of occurrence. Calibrates as truth.

Until then - Full Bull market mode 👆🏼🔥 but going into September remain consciously aware of any liquidity engineering: specifically mainstream media covering how bullish BTC is.

It will be very emotionally and psychologically hard to sell your positions when the time comes - that is by the design.

So memorise the above date range. The time to prepare for the next Finpocalypse is Now!

You’re welcome ✡️

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

We are of course still Bullish and will continue to be Bullish until the bull market top in late October this year (approx. final bull market top is 13-20 October).

However, June 30 may mark a key bearish inflection into a July-August correction / a final higher time-frame pullback before the last rally in September-October.

The bearish narrative for July will likely crystallize from the June 18 FOMC rate decision.

Scenarios to watch: – Fed holds rates and signals no 2025 cuts. – SEP downgrade: sticky inflation + slower growth. – Powell leans into external risk (trade war, geopolitics). – Market pricing misaligned with Fed stance.
Look for risk assets to be elevated mid-June, for the market to digest the implications over a 1-2 week period and then the post-FOMC retrace aligns.
Stay focused. Let the data reveal the path.
Victory awaits. 🏆

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

@decodejar My wallet disagrees but I understand your point. Predictions are pointless - unless they are based on mathematical modelling. In which case it’s fully possible to predict even the existence of black holes. Never mind something as binary as market tops.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

BTC Update ⚡️

Wave 2 likely bottomed yesterday on the 0.618 retrace from the March 11 low.

Today’s Bitcoin dump is most likely a liquidity sweep —a naughty shakeout before a potential rally above $88.5K next week. Watch the 15min chart for a higher low next!

$82K is pivotal support. If it holds in the next 55 minutes, the R:R is interstellar — long entries with stops under $81,110 are high conviction setups with minimal risk as long as you control your position sizing.

If $82K fails, expect a sweep below - possibly down to $79K or a double bottom with yesterday’s low. Be ready to counter-sweep the sweepers. Surf that market maker turf. Stops under 11 March low, unless that gets swept too, in which case best to stay out and await more data. $72k is not off the table until we brake above $88.5k.

But current data and probabilities favours a major low today. If your risk management is sharp, the reward is extremely asymmetric.

And yes, BTC is still technically in a bull market - follow the data and avoid subjective opinions. Extreme Fear is a warning sign that the market is close to reversing.

Victory awaits ⚔️

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

So much fear - must be time for longs.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

Short-term bullish market structure braking, monitoring for confirmation. Possibly moving towards a double bottom near $79k or a liquidity sweep towards $72k. New targets TBC. FOMC meeting tomorrow means short-term volatility inbound and risk of liquidity sweeps are high. Stay cautious.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

If Bitcoin daily closes above $84k, probability strongly begins to favour a bullish macro reversal from 11 March low. Excited for new ATHs in Q2 ☝🏻

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

Signal confirming.

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

If Bitcoin holds $78,300 in the next 12 hours, bulls have another base to attempt breaking the $84K ceiling. No confirmed bullish reversal yet - bears can still push us to $72K (or a little lower) within the next 6 days.

This correction remains healthy for setting up new ATHs in Q2. Meanwhile, US inflation is stable, M2 supply is rising. Watch for bullish catalysts to trigger higher highs (Fed rate decision on March 19 or trade wars easing). Stay sharp for mainstream bearish Bitcoin narratives - they love selling you the bottom.

Forget the monthly close noise. Higher timeframes are king. The quarterly chart still prints higher highs - if we close above $94K in 18 days, we get a bullish continuation signal. Current fears over the trade wars are supressing risk appetite, which is creating opportunities.

Unless a black swan defecates on the markets, probabilities still remain heavily bullish (based on current data). If we do see a technical breakdown or a trigger for a systemic collapse, there's always a bounce to short.

Opportunities are abundant. We'll have some fun this year!

[Thordin @TheGoldenSphere]

@CatKing1881418 Bull market likely ends 14-20 October. Expecting a correction from late June into September prior to the final high.