David Hanna Jr.

Software Engineer in Cybersecurity. Not a Geopolitical Analyst. Built a Middle East peace framework in my spare time to cope with the doomscroll.

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

https://t.co/l3o8rWjAkL

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

@policytensor The IRGC isn't genocidal, too?

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

@JacobALinker I can't tell how many “Senior American Officials” sound exactly like JD Vance at this point.

They are putting him entirely in charge of selling this nonsense he architected. No one else in the administration believes in it. They just wanted out.

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

@JacobALinker @rachelbovard That should have been the singular wargoal from the start!

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

My take on the emerging regional framework after the Iran-US MoU.

- One of the less discussed consequences of the Iran war has been the emergence of a new regional diplomatic center of gravity.

- The countries that drove what many now call the Islamabad Process (or quartet) - Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, with external active support from Qatar and Oman - proved far more effective than many expected in helping broker first the ceasefire and later the Iran-US MoU.

- This bloc is often dismissed as a “new Sunni axis,” but that label misses some important realities. Pakistan alone hosts the world’s second-largest Shia population after Iran, which partly explains Islamabad’s unique access to Iranian decision-makers during the various stages of the mediation effort.

- More importantly, this is not simply an ideological framework. It is a coalition of complementary capabilities: Saudi Arabia and Qatar bring financial power; Turkey contributes a strong defense industry and drone expertise; Pakistan adds missile capabilities, nuclear deterrence and political access to both Persian Gulf capitals and Tehran; Egypt brings conventional military weight, control of the Suez corridor and diplomatic influence across Arab security affairs.

- The presence of Turkey and Qatar - both historically supportive of Hamas - gives the bloc a regional outlook that is not always aligned with Israeli preferences.

- Perhaps the most interesting aspect is that this emerging framework appears to be seeking something larger than a traditional alliance. Rather than acting as an extension of any outside power, these countries increasingly seem interested in managing regional crises themselves and creating a more autonomous regional center of influence.

- From Tehran’s perspective, the emergence of this bloc is a positive development. While often described as a “Sunni axis,” Iran is likely to see it in more pragmatic terms.
Relations with Pakistan have improved significantly since the 2023 Iran-Saudi rapprochement and relations with Riyadh remained strong despite the Iranian attacks during the war.
For Tehran,the bloc represents a potentially useful regional framework for dialogue, mediation and crisis management.

- Whether this becomes a formal alliance remains doubtful (in my opinion it will not). But the Iran crisis showed the potential of a regional framework able to mediate conflicts, coordinate on security issues and balance competing international pressures.

- The geopolitical significance of this bloc could grow well beyond the current crisis.
#Iran

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

I still can't believe these motherfuckers destroyed the wrong fucking navy 🤦🏾‍♂️🤦🏾‍♂️🤦🏾‍♂️.

Brad Cooper was bragging about destroying all their blue water ships while the IRGC had the SoH sealed shut.

Fucking Bibi pushed a half-assed plan to throw a handful of Kurds as cannon fodder to the IRGC. Absolutely
morally disgusting to use minorities in such a manner.

No nigga, the jobs of the Jews are to use your superior Askenazi IQ to keep the American whites from doing something stupid 🤦🏾‍♂️🤦🏾‍♂️🤦🏾‍♂️.

Bibi went and did the opposite! We didn't have coherent goals until weeks into the war because of his fantasy bullshit.

Fucker declined his patron empire and shifted BOTH the internal and external balance of power towards the IRGC.

I read Yoni Netanyahu's book briefly and understand why people say we got the dumber brother as PM.

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

@robrabbo @BrettErickson28 Trump can suck my dick. I didn't support him starting this war. And I barely support his stupid deal to end it.

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

Interesting, although I think the weakest aspect of this was the standard Israeli propaganda against Qatar. 

I understand that Al-Jazeera and their suitcases of cash to Hamas are harmful, and I won't deny their role in a genocidal massacre of Jews.

But they host the largest American airbase in the Middle East and are probably the most important diplomatic infrastructure of the Western world, which has proven itself multiple times during the October 7th wars, most recently with the (POS) MOU Trump just signed.

You can disagree with the outcomes, but they have repeatedly proven themselves to be an extension of Pax Americana.

I generally agree with the superiority of Western morals and civilization, but that belief has been under severe strain these past few years.

I had to do some serious soul-searching to understand why that's the case, which was doubly strenuous as someone who is traditionally seen as an oppressed person in the Western world. In the end, it was simply a matter of comparing the superior development trajectory of Western societies. But then you remember that development trajectory was also built on a whole load of bog-standard human barbarism, which sends you back to step 0.

The other thing is that “white-guilt” is intentionally built into the collective consciousness of the West as a self-improvement feedback loop for our moral values.

I think it's relatively successful, but it's been under strain. Collective guilt festers into self-hatred in certain segments of the left, and into unrepentant, self-defeating ethnonationalism in certain segments of the right. At the same time, the centrist majority stands by, watching society seemingly decay as incompatible and irreconcilable differences grow, powered by the unprecedented connectedness of the modern age, an ironic yet predictable outcome.

So I guess my view is that Western society is superior at turning human barbarism into positive outcomes? And that's underappreciated by those marching against the West who wouldn't even have the privilege to do it elsewhere?

But we are still powered by human barbarism, so even those people have a point, even if they do not from a position of privilege and hypocrisy and performance? Idk

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

The understanding that America got our ass whooped?

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

A U.S. official on the Iran deal:

“What’s more important than the actual document is the understandings we have with each other”

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

Vance just needs to shut the fuck up at this point 😭😭😭

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

A U.S. official on the Iran deal:

“What’s more important than the actual document is the understandings we have with each other”

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

“What if the real deal is the friends we made along the way” typa stuff 😭

[Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) @adamscochran]

Full and utter capitulation.

The US has essentially surrendered.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Below is the text of the 14-point draft memorandum, as seen by Bloomberg News.

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.

2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.

5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of ​​Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.

6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.

7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.

9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.

10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.

11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.

12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.

13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.

14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

@BrettErickson28 @Rory_Johnston This shit got me speaking like Bibi Netanyahu!

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

Trump didn’t just lose the war with Iran, he may now be losing the peace deal too.

That’s the part of this interview with geopolitical analyst Robert Pape that people need to understand.

Because on the surface the MOU looks like Trump finding an off-ramp, calming the markets, stopping the war, and buying himself some political breathing room.

But Pape argues the opposite is happening.

He says Iran is now in the driver’s seat, and this deal doesn’t weaken Tehran, it gives them time, money, leverage, and a loaded gun pointed at the global economy.

His argument is brutal: Iran survived the bombing, proved it can close the Strait of Hormuz, saw Gulf states feeling abandoned by Washington, and is now using the negotiations not to make peace, but to accumulate power.

According to Pape, the real story is the 60-day window.

Because during those 60 days, global oil reserves that are already depleted keep draining, and Iran’s leverage gets stronger every single week.

Then, if Israel doesn’t leave Lebanon, if the money doesn’t arrive, if Trump doesn’t make concessions, Iran can come back and squeeze again from an even stronger position.

That’s the nightmare scenario.

Pape says Israel understands this, which is why the deal is such a catastrophe for them.

Before the war, Israel was the rising power. After the war, he argues, the tables have flipped, and Iran is now moving toward regional dominance.

That’s why this interview matters.

Because if Pape is right, Trump didn’t end the Iran crisis; he bought 60 days before the next squeeze, which could be far worse.

@ProfessorPape

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

מבחינת טהראן, תפיסת "חיבור הזירות" הפכה לאחר המלחמה לאחד מעקרונות היסוד של הרפובליקה האסלאמית, לא פחות חשובים מתוכנית הטילים או מהפרויקט הגרעיני.

המשמעות היא שאיראן רואה קשר ישיר בין המתרחש בלבנון לבין היציבות האזורית כולה, ואף משאירה לעצמה פתח לחידוש העימות אם תסבור שהמערכה נגד חיזבאללה נמשכת.

הכדור נמצא כעת במגרש של הנשיא טראמפ. קשה לראות כיצד ניתן להגיע ליציבות כלשהי כל עוד ישראל ממשיכה לפעול בלבנון בעוד איראן רואה בפעילות הזו הפרה של ההבנות שהובילו להפסקת האש.

מבחינת טהראן, הטיעון הישראלי של "הגנה עצמית" אינו רלוונטי. הדרישה האיראנית היא ברורה: הפסקה מלאה של הפעילות הצבאית הישראלית. השאלה היא עד כמה טראמפ, שמעוניין לקדם הסכם עם איראן, ואנשי ממשלו, שחלקם רואים בפעולות הישראליות ניסיון לחבל במאמצים הדיפלומטיים, יהיו מוכנים ללחוץ על נתניהו לא רק לסיים את המלחמה אלא גם לעצור את המשך התקיפות המתבצעות תחת הכותרת של "הסרת איומים".

כל עוד קיים פער כה עמוק בין האופן שבו ישראל מפרשת את חופש הפעולה שלה בלבנון לבין האופן שבו איראן מפרשת את תנאי הפסקת האש, פוטנציאל ההסלמה יישאר גבוה. מבחינת טהראן, המשך התקיפות הישראליות עלול להוות עילה לחידוש העימות הישיר מול ישראל.

נכון לעכשיו, הזירה הלבנונית הפכה למכשול המרכזי בדרך להסכם בין וושינגטון לטהראן. כל הצדדים מבינים שאם הסוגיה הזו לא תיפתר, היא עלולה להפוך לגורם שיטרפד כל ניסיון להגיע להבנות רחבות יותר בין ארצות הברית לאיראן.

ייתכן שזה גם הרקע לרצון הגובר של גורמי ביטחון בישראל לקדם הסדר בזירה הלבנונית במהירות. ההבנה היא שככל שהמצב הנוכחי יימשך, כך יגבר הסיכון שהסוגיה הלבנונית תהפוך למוקד חיכוך בין ירושלים לוושינגטון.

מבחינת אותם גורמים, עדיף להגיע להבנות מול ממשלת לבנון כעת, לפני שטראמפ יחליט שהפעילות הישראלית בלבנון מסכנת את המאמץ הרחב יותר להגיע להסכם עם איראן. במקרה כזה, הוא עלול להעלות מדרגה ולהפעיל לחץ משמעותי יותר על ישראל לצמצם או אף להפסיק את פעילותה הצבאית בלבנון.

במילים אחרות, השאלה איננה רק מה חושבים בביירות או בטהראן, אלא גם כמה סבלנות נותרה בבית הלבן למצב שבו הזירה הלבנונית מאיימת לסכל יעד אסטרטגי רחב יותר מבחינתו של טראמפ – הסכם מול איראן והימנעות מהידרדרות נוספת במזרח התיכון.

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

@WrubleB @academic_la You should do your own homework instead of copying and pasting 🤦🏾‍♂️.

[Shaiel Ben-Ephraim @academic_la]

The US-Iran deal is being sold as Trump ending a war. Read the terms. This is an Iranian victory, and not a close one:

1) Iran is openly selling oil again immediately. The MOU waives sanctions on Iranian crude the moment it is signed, and covers the banking, transport, and insurance to make the sales work. Two supertankers, the Diona and Hero II, already crossed the US blockade Tuesday.

2) The blockade that defined the war is gone. The US lifts it. Iran lifts its closure of Hormuz. The single point of leverage Washington spent three months building, surrendered up front.

3) The strait reopens "under Iranian arrangements." Not freedom of navigation. Iran manages the chokepoint it just strangled. The no-toll promise runs 60 days, then expires. Before the war Iran charged up to $2M per vessel.

4) The oil concession was free for Iran. A former Mossad official told the WSJ Iran would have resumed smuggling the second the ports opened. Washington just legalized a trade that never stopped, and called it a sweetener.

5) Iran is owed $300 billion in reconstruction. Trump called it fake news. His own VP confirmed it on camera, "the sort of thing they could have access to."

6) Iran kept the nuclear program. Still enriching. Vance admits Tehran has not agreed to stop. Stockpile removal is deferred to talks that have not started. The war aim was ending the nuclear program. It survived.

7) Iran wants $12B up front, $24B over the window, against ~$100B frozen. Sanctions can be reimposed. Transferred assets cannot be clawed back. Whatever Iran banks, it keeps.

8) Amazingly Iran earned more from oil during the war than before it. Prices spiked from its own Hormuz closure. Higher margins, lower volume, healthy treasury. It negotiated from strength, not collapse.

The US and Israel set out to end Iran's nuclear program, drain its missiles, cut its proxies, and topple the regime. None of it happened. The terms read like a list of things Iran wanted. This is what losing a war you started looks like.

[Philippe Lemoine @phl43]

The US and Israel opened the war by murdering the entire leadership, then did the same thing to their replacement and bombed the shit out of Iran for weeks, but the usual suspects will predictably insist that the real war has never been tried because they are clueless people who don't understand the contraints that US decision-makers face and therefore have totally unrealistic expectations.

For instance, it's true that in theory the US could have continued to blockade Iran for months, but eventually the inventories of crude and distilled products would have run out and the world economy would have gone up in flames. Now, people like Dubowicz may not care about that, but most people do because they aren't sociopaths and the truth is that no US president would have risked that when vital US interests were clearly not at stake.

Hawks like to think of themselves as hard-nose realists, but there is nothing realistic about ignoring the political and economic constraints under which decision-makers operate. It's easy for keyboard warriors to advocate scorched earth policy, but not so much when you're Trump and you're constantly getting calls from businessmen and allies telling you that if traffic through Hormuz doesn't resume soon everything will collapse and it will be on you.

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

The deal with Iran will go down as one of the most incompetent ever made. The U.S. lost on virtually every point. We just don't win anymore!

[David Hanna Jr. @TheKingDavidJr]

@JacobALinker Agreed, it's a semi-depreciating asset.

The problem is that nothing is cheaper than ocean-borne traffic, although this war has probably permanently increased the cost through SoH, as you mention.