TheMintRush

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@zachdcarter @matthewstoller This but unironically

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@BK_McCallum @Lloydy232323 @NastyNestor69 @RyLiberty @BrokenBulletz You keep saying she hit him. I assume you are only looking at the grainy video from the house. The close up video pretty clearly shows he gets out of the way. You’re cherry-picking from the worst evidence.

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

Normal guy: Jan 6 was a violent coup and a national disgrace

patrioteagle69: [grainy picture of some loser tying his shoes on the Ellipse] you mean this Jan 6? 🤣

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@josephjanecka @PercivalSweetw2 @NateSilver538 @lxeagle17 It’s all good, man. Seeing now that you’re just not really cut out for understanding how this stuff works. Best of luck!

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@josephjanecka @PercivalSweetw2 @NateSilver538 @lxeagle17 This feels like a misunderstanding of good modeling. Their data was excellent when you compare predictions to outcome frequency.

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@josephjanecka @PercivalSweetw2 @NateSilver538 @lxeagle17 What’s your issue with 538? My understanding is that their probabilistic models were well-calibrated. If not, which analyst had better political models?

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@deep_jake_ @FischerKing64 You ever consider that maybe you’re just not that bright? Feels like the Occam’s Razor here.

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@RealDavidRyan @blubball @minakimes @prettyboyju_ What are the odds that all the people that have studied this and know the math are on one side while you are on the other side and that YOU are right? You need an ounce of humility to consider you may be wrong here and are the one that doesn’t get it.

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@MarchettiT @gregolsen88 Your math just assumes the conclusion ahead of time. Half the time it’s 7pts, half the time it’s 9pts. If you kick the XP then miss the 2pt, you have 0 time and game is over. Your logic is equivalent to preferring to close your eyes than knowing your odds.

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@Owensaurus_88 @purpledrank0 @gregolsen88 It’s not binary. Down 8 is a 1.5 possession game. Down 7 is 0.97 possession game, or effectively 1. You can’t round the 1.5 down to 1. Half the time it’s not 1 score.

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@AdamKoffler Because it’s the right decision
https://t.co/Q6Rn1p3QOT

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@brandon_lighty @JohnPeric159923 @Himedanshi2199 @KibrGual @sandmansanch711 Replies have offered several notable examples at you (Austin, Tokyo, Auckland, Zurich) and your response is that you personally take issue with each study. Kinda sounds like you don’t want it to be true…

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@serpunketh @RichardHanania They need to spend a significant amount on childcare. I looked up avg cost in PA for a rough idea of natl avg: Seeing $10-12k per kid ($20-24k for two). That’s 1/3 less than his number and only for a few years. The avg family of 4 earns ~$125k. They aren’t all poor.

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@serpunketh @RichardHanania It’s a reasonable idea but does not stand up to scrutiny. He’s basically redefining the poverty line as like the 70th percentile. The average family of four is not paying $32k/yr for child care.

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@BillJulian12 @cremieuxrecueil You mean the places where the people live? The horror!

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@Neorio12321 @cremieuxrecueil “And what’s the map look like when you remove the people I don’t like?”

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@TonyB348 @cremieuxrecueil Even better map

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@calijawn @besttrousers Yes, $8k median in their transaction accounts

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@FewSecrets @besttrousers Luckily 40%+ own their home with no mortgage

[TheMintRush @TheMintRush7]

@eaccocortex @besttrousers ~40% of homes are mortgage-free