SuperActionRumpfi

CEO @ FunkyFapFoundation
Crypto Enthusiast
$GPU, $ATOR,

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@KimDotcom Sounds like you only know her pussy from pictures 🤣🤣

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@VolatilityQ In austria, we also stuff cheese in sausage, before we dress them in bacon. Berner würstel 😋

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@qvac Gzzng6t

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@MichaelAArouet

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@MichaelAArouet Would you mind sharing the source of your graph?

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@MichaelAArouet @grok is this true?

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@VolatilityQ Long?

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@VolatilityQ

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@VolatilityQ

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@JungleRockRes

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@JungleRockRes @LordStoppington ❤️

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Good morning, and God bless, #Team42!

Today’s Key Macro Question(s): Is @realDonaldTrump losing his own trade war?

Apple $AAPL rose 6% in premarket trading after the US temporarily exempted popular consumer electronics, including smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives, computer processors, semiconductors, and flat-screen displays from reciprocal tariffs. Tech stocks are broadly rallying with the NASDAQ 100 up nearly 2%.

These moves followed @POTUS' decision to pause some tech levies, offering a brief reprieve to markets whipsawed by his volatile trade policy. According to the White House, the exemption from the 145% China tariff and 10% global flat rate on consumer electronics is temporary and part of a longer-term plan, though the move signals Trump’s willingness to compromise and represents incremental confirmation of our view that the bond market activated the “Trump put” last week.

China’s Ministry of Commerce urged the US to “take a big stride in completely abolishing the wrongful action, and return to the correct path of resolving differences through equal dialogue based on mutual respect.” This is the same entity that called the Trump administration’s trade policy a “joke” last week.

China’s consistently firm tone indicates that it believes it has the upper hand in negotiations. At a minimum, President Xi’s historic consolidation of power means he will likely outlast President Trump’s second term. At a maximum, China understands and can weaponize the fact that the other side of a trade war is a capital war that the bloated US public sector can ill afford to lose.

The market now knows this and traded US vulnerabilities appropriately across US stock, bond, and currency markets last week. The S&P 500’s 9.5% short squeeze on April 9 tied for the eighth best day since 1928. Historically, such extreme rallies often signal sustained fragility in asset markets, with the index higher six months later only 43% of the time.

Following similar extreme one-day gains, the six-month median return was down 2% with a wide dispersion. The average six-month return for positive values was up 27% and the average six-month return for negative values was down 18%. All 15 of the most extreme one-day gains occurred amid major corrections of at least 30%, with nine during the Great Depression (1929–33), two each in the Great Financial Crisis (2008) and COVID Crisis (2020), and one during the Crash of 1987.

Wall Street forecasts are finally starting to reflect the gravity of the economic situation implied by such extreme market volatility. Citi $C just cut their 2025 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $255 (from $270), and Morgan Stanley $MS lowered their to $257 (from $271). Consensus earnings estimates remain broadly out to lunch, however. Wall Street strategist consensus is now calling for $267 for CY25, down only 1.5% from $271 at the all-time high in the $SPY nearly two months ago.

While the decline in the US dollar is supportive of their still-sanguine outlooks, it is unlikely to offset the collection of headwinds that continue to be underappreciated by investors broadly. We do not believe the net impact of tough comps, historically elevated policy uncertainty, tariffs, restricting immigration, and DOGE budget cuts is fully reflected in consensus GDP, sales, and earnings estimates.

A technical recession is likely as President Trump “kitchen sinks” the economy per the view we authored last fall—albeit at a slower pace inspired by his healthy fear of dysfunction in the Treasury market. The cumulative impact of the fiscal, regulatory, and trade policy shocks is likely negative on a net basis in 2025.

One right tail risk investors can hope for is more dysfunction in the Treasury market because that will speed up the timing of the QE asset markets require from the @federalreserve to truncate the global debt refinancing air pocket we’ve been presaging since last fall.

If you found this note helpful, please like and share. Thank you!

Consistently making money and protecting gains in financial markets require a lot of time, expertise, and computational power. Investors partner with 42 Macro because we do the heavy lifting and answer the hard questions for them. See for yourself: https://t.co/LQvjX7i7qY.

Have a great day!
-Skipper

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Good morning, and God bless, #Team42!

Today’s Key Macro Question(s): Did the bond market break @realDonaldTrump?

Yesterday, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 melted up +9.5% and +12%, respectively—their best days since Oct-08—after @POTUS postponed the greater than 10% portion of reciprocal tariffs by 90 days. This comes amid a further hike in the aggregate China tariff rate to 125%.

Part of the reason markets rallied so hard yesterday was that this was the first time anyone thought the “art of the deal” could actually work to realign global trade with relatively minimal disruption—ourselves included. We’ve been squarely in the “Trump 2.0 = a high probability ‘kitchen sinking’ of the US economy” camp since we authored the view last fall.

What if the “art of the deal” actually works—at least temporarily— because most of the major countries will eventually negotiate what appear to be favorable trade deals and pledged investments for the US over the next 90 days (or longer if there is a second extension due to “progress”)?

That outcome represents a significant curtailment of left tail risk, rendering it incredibly bullish for risk assets and Treasury bonds alike (more on that later). In this still-bad-in-absolute-terms-but-improving-in-rate-of-change-terms scenario, bears could at best hope for a retest of the lows as the market gains more certainty around contours of the pending sharp economic slowdown.

A retest of the lows likely represents the worst-case scenario despite the persistence of @DOGE, restricted immigration, historically elevated policy uncertainty, and tough comps net yet fully priced by markets that were myopically focused on tariffs for a large percentage of the decline. Why? Because even if all this became obvious enough to allow companies and investors to properly reset sales and earnings expectations, we can’t see that process creating more downside than the lows observed heading into this week. The combination of all that is still not as bad as a global trade war.

Regarding the now-delayed trade war, who's to say most countries won’t be accused of suckering President Trump into trade deals and commitments that they subsequently renege on when we read about this 4-5yrs from now?

How did the Phase One China deal work out? USMCA anyone? If I’m running a foreign commerce ministry, I would be among the first in line to say, “yes” to most/all the Trump administration's demands while immediately breaking ground on an elaborate list of excuses for planned delays throughout implementation. If it takes roughly three years to build an auto factory, you might be able to stretch out the planning and capital raising phases to the midterms and pivot to some legislative and/or legal challenges after that. Enter President @CoryBooker?

That was a joke, btw. You already know how I feel about him: https://t.co/snbntyC1fy.

But what do I know? I’m just thinking out loud regarding the other side of the “art of the deal”.

Since President Trump is allegedly playing 4D chess, another “other side” of the deal that we must consider is the potential check imposed upon Trump’s king by the global bond market—specifically the fire sale of Treasury bonds this week from a low of 3.87% on the Nominal 10yr to a high of 4.51% yesterday.

If the Trump administration’s assumed strategic advantage is “countries running trade deficits can’t lose trade wars" is true—and we think it is—then, by definition “countries running capital account deficits can’t win capital wars” must also be true because CA + KA = 0.

Perhaps the international negotiators sitting across the table from @realDonaldTrump, @SecScottBessent, @howardlutnick, and the economic advisory contingent featuring @jamiesongreer, @SteveMiran, and @RealPNavarro have a strategic advantage of their own: $8.5 trillion in marketable Treasuries (30% of the total) that they are willing to dump to prove a point.

The worst-case scenario for asset markets is that our foreign creditors spend the next 90 days playing hardball with a man who believes he was spared from an assassin’s bullet to restructure global trade imbalances. By then, it will be obvious the US economy is likely headed for or in at least a technical recession—if not an actual recession.

The latter outcome likely represents downside to the down-30-to-down-40-percent range for the S&P 500 based on the asymmetry in the positioning cycle our Positioning Model observed at the all-time high in the $SPY in February—which was essentially on par with Feb-20 before the 34% decline in the S&P 500 that would likely have been far worse if not for historic monetary and fiscal policy intervention.

That the high print of 4.51% was reached shortly after midnight in New York, 5:12am in London, 6:12am in Frankfurt, 1:12pm in Tokyo and Seoul, and 12:12pm in Beijing is supportive of this view. Also supportive is the fact that the US dollar was declining in lockstep with Treasury bonds during the final half of the three-day move—indicating price-insensitive capital repatriation by foreign creditor nations.

The fact that the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound each featured the most exaggerated increases vs. the USD during this period—in that order—makes sense when you consider that the Eurozone, Japan, and UK represent three of the four largest foreign creditors to the Treasury market at $1.8tn (first), $.1tn (second), and $740bn (fourth), respectively. The Chinese yuan depreciated throughout, as Beijing is clearly seeking to offset the cost of tariffs and fend off an economic downturn via currency devaluation, among other things.

All told, the fact that the “Trump put” was exercised—or at a minimum rolled to July 9—due to stress in the Treasury bond market has both positive and negative implications.

On the positive side, it clears the way for, at worst, a retest of the lows in the interim and, at best, a sustained uptrend from here. On the negative side, it is confirmation of the growing, geopolitically driven supply-demand imbalance we have been warning about in the Treasury bond market. @42Macro clients, refer to slides 56-84 our Apr-25 Macro Scouting Report Presentation from last Friday for more details.

Eventually, this supply-demand imbalance will break markets and no policymaker outside of the Fed Chair will be able to fix it—and any solution will likely come at a tremendous cost to low-to-middle income consumers and small businesses in purchasing power and wealth inequality terms.

Refer to our note yesterday for why we believe the best method for investors to safely navigate these Fourth Turning polycrisis dynamics is via the use of proven risk management overlays like KISS and Dr. Mo. Trust me—as a renowned global macro expert, there are far too many dimensions of scenario analysis to handicap to properly position portfolios for these interconnected risks using fundamental research alone.

@42Macro clients, remember what we have consistently coached you on all year: 1) bear markets are at least twice as hard to risk manage as bull markets are “easy”; and 2) the distribution of probable economic outcomes is as wide as most investors have ever seen, so be ready to pivot if/when KISS and Dr. Mo pivot.

Odds are you’ll thank them later even if you/we do not trust or fully understand why in the moment. The market is smarter than we are and someone always knows something (e.g., "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT").

If you found this note helpful, please like and share. Thank you!

Consistently making money and protecting gains in financial markets require a lot of time, expertise, and computational power. Investors partner with 42 Macro because we do the heavy lifting and answer the hard questions for them. See for yourself: https://t.co/LQvjX7i7qY.

Have a great day!
-Skipper

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Good morning, and God bless, #Team42!

Today’s Key Macro Question(s): Is the US heading into another emerging market-style crisis that forces the Fed to supply QE?

The Nominal 30yr Treasury Yield briefly pierced 5% for the first time since November 2023 as investors questioned the haven status of US sovereign debt, sending the dollar lower for a second day and fueling fears that growing market volatility and stress may trigger a systemic break in financial plumbing.

The Nominal 10yr Treasury Yield climbed 15bps to 4.44%, extending a week-to-date surge to 41bps, while the 30yr spiked 47bps week-to-date—its biggest three-day move since November 2020. The Treasury rout spilled into global bond markets, with the UK’s borrowing costs soaring to their highest level since 1998 and Japanese 40-year bond yields hitting an all-time high.

Explanations for the selloff range from foreign investor liquidation of US debt to hedge funds unwinding over $1tn in basis trades to a broader reevaluation of US debt by global reserve managers. That it is likely all three is contributing to fresh speculation across global Wall Street that the Fed may need to step in to stabilize the bond market.

Perversely, investors should welcome Treasury market dysfunction like this because it is the fastest route to the Fed supplying the QE asset markets require to curtail the worst of the global debt refinancing air pocket we have been warning about since last fall. Recall the Fed intervened in the Treasury market to the tune of $1.6tn in March 2020 during the COVID crisis. Indeed, this is the second such emerging market-style financial crisis the US has experienced in five years.

There’s speculation that China is offloading Treasuries in response to tariffs, with some investors suggesting Beijing is reassessing its US debt holdings in light of Trump’s trade war. Such a move would undermine Treasuries’ safe-haven status, although official data show both China and Japan have been trimming holdings for years. The share of marketable Treasury securities owned by foreign central banks has declined from a peak of 40% in 2008 to only 13% currently.

Investor anxiety in the Treasury market deepened following a weak three-year auction Tuesday, setting the stage for a nervous $39bn 10-year auction Wednesday and a 30-year sale Thursday. Investor anxiety is also being fanned by President Trump’s deepening trade war, which is contributing to concerns about the outlook for global inflation. While we do not view tariffs as inflationary, supply chain disruption that persists for years will certainly feel like inflation to consumers, businesses, and reported inflation data.

Trump’s latest tariffs now push tariffs on Chinese goods as high as 104% and EU imports now face a 20% levy. “A major tariff” on pharmaceuticals is in the pipeline, according to Trump.

US equity futures briefly turned green and Treasuries pared losses after China signaled openness to talks, though Beijing doubled down on its resolve to “fight to the end” and rebuked JD Vance for his “Chinese peasants” remark, leaving markets uneasy. This comes after markets whipsawed Tuesday, rallying as Trump teased South Korea negotiations, then sliding after his administration confirmed it would move forward with sweeping China tariffs.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told lawmakers: “We will have the president’s plan going into effect and we’re coupling that with immediate negotiations with our partners.” On Tuesday, Trump said he had a “great call” with South Korea’s interim leader Han Duck-soo and posted that “things are looking good,” as Seoul signaled it wants a “big trade deal”. Japan sent senior envoys to D.C. after Trump’s Monday call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

White House Trade and Manufacturing Czar Peter Navarro rejected claims that Trump’s tariffs are mere leverage, insisting they are core to a strategy to reassert US dominance, revive manufacturing, and extract geopolitical concessions.

China remains defiant, vowing to “fight to the end,” and with Xi Jinping unlikely to engage in near-term talks, the trade war risk grows. Premier Li Qiang said China has “ample policy tools” to offset Trump’s tariffs. Other major economies are retaliating too. For example, Canada imposed a 25% counter-tariff on auto imports right after midnight, while France and Germany continue to push for a more aggressive EU response.

@RayDalio warned markets are obsessing over tariffs and missing the bigger “once in a lifetime” realignment of monetary, political, and geopolitical systems.

“There are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways,” Dalio wrote, adding that “it is obviously incongruous to have both large trade imbalances and large capital imbalances in a deglobalizing world in which the major players can’t trust that the other major players won’t cut them off from the items they need (which is an American worry) or pay them the money they are owed (which is a Chinese worry).”

We view the current meltdown in the Treasury market as part and parcel of the Fourth Turning polycrisis that we have been preparing 42 Macro clients for since the summer of 2023 when we first debuted our Investing During A Fourth Turning Regime presentation.

One of the key takeaways from the presentation is our structural bearish bias on Treasury bonds and expectation that the US would have a cascading series of EM-style financial crises that require greater and greater monetary debasement and financial repression by the Fed to calm Treasury market dysfunction.

Ultimately, the Fed will be forced to go to unprecedented lengths to plug the growing, geopolitically driven supply-demand imbalance in the Treasury bond market once the world deems the US to be in fiscal crisis—an outcome we still anticipate by 2030. I get chills when I think about the impact such a great monetary inflation would have on the poorest members of our society—i.e., the people I grew up with. That is why I am so passionate about helping investors and ordinary people prepare for these global macro risks.

We put this deeply researched view into action when we pivoted our systematic KISS Portfolio Construction Process permanently out of Treasuries and into Gold last fall. We currently feature that Oct-24 Around the Horn presentation on our Sample 42 Macro Research page: https://t.co/LQvjX7i7qY.

You can preview our “US fiscal crisis by 2030” thesis here: https://t.co/ExwXhhyOwU.

We provided a detailed update regarding this deeply researched view on slides 56-84 in our Apr-25 Macro Scouting Report presentation last Friday when the 10yr Nominal Treasury Yield closed below 4%. Although @42Macro currently advises a collection of systemically important buy side clients whose cumulative AUM is well north of $25 trillion, any investor in the world can access this content via our Macro Strategist or Macro Strategist Pro subscriptions here: https://t.co/KTyzYkb9II.

We price our top-tier Wall Street research so that every investor on Main Street has a chance to compete for returns too. Social mobility is very important to me as someone that grew up living exclusively in public housing, homeless shelters, and the occasional automobile. Please like AND repost this note if you support my mission to truly democratize the best of Wall Street.

Elsewhere, Delta $DAL scrapped its full-year guidance amid global trade uncertainty, with CEO Ed Bastian warning that revenue has “flat-lined” and lamenting, “It’s very difficult to predict what policies may look like over the course of the year.” Expect many companies to pull guidance during Q1 earnings season due to “uncertainty”—whatever the heck that means. Review what we wrote yesterday for details on why this cowardly act prolongs bear markets.

If you found this note helpful, please like and share. Thank you!

Consistently making money and protecting gains in financial markets require a lot of time, expertise, and computational power. Investors partner with 42 Macro because we do the heavy lifting and answer the hard questions for them. See for yourself: https://t.co/LQvjX7i7qY.

Have a great day!
-Skipper

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

I know a lot of people don't read anymore—which is partially why so many investors keep losing tons of their and/or other people's money—so here is the key passage from today's must-read note for the "TLDR" crowd:

“We view the current meltdown in the Treasury market as part and parcel of the Fourth Turning polycrisis that we have been preparing @42Macro clients for since the summer of 2023 when we first debuted our Investing During A Fourth Turning Regime presentation.

One of the key takeaways from the presentation is our structural bearish bias on Treasury bonds and expectation that the US would have a cascading series of EM-style financial crises that require greater and greater monetary debasement and financial repression by the Fed to calm Treasury market dysfunction.

Ultimately, the Fed will be forced to go to unprecedented lengths to plug the growing, geopolitically driven supply-demand imbalance in the Treasury bond market once the world deems the US to be in fiscal crisis—an outcome we still anticipate by 2030. I get chills when I think about the impact such a great monetary inflation would have on the poorest members of our society—i.e., the people I grew up with. That is why I am so passionate about helping investors and ordinary people prepare for these global macro risks.

We put this deeply researched view into action when we pivoted our systematic KISS Portfolio Construction Process permanently out of Treasuries and into Gold last fall. We currently feature that Oct-24 Around the Horn presentation on our Sample 42 Macro Research page: https://t.co/LQvjX7i7qY.

You can preview our “US fiscal crisis by 2030” thesis here: https://t.co/ExwXhhyOwU.

We provided a detailed update regarding this deeply researched view on slides 56-84 in our Apr-25 Macro Scouting Report presentation last Friday when the 10yr Nominal Treasury Yield closed below 4%. Although @42Macro currently advises a collection of systemically important buy side clients whose cumulative AUM is well north of $25 trillion, any investor in the world can access this content via our Macro Strategist or Macro Strategist Pro subscriptions here: https://t.co/KTyzYkb9II.

We price our top-tier Wall Street research so that every investor on Main Street has a chance to compete for returns too. Social mobility is very important to me as someone that grew up living exclusively in public housing, homeless shelters, and the occasional automobile. Please like AND repost this note if you support my mission to truly democratize the best of Wall Street.” ❤️

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@JungleRockRes 🤣

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@TheCryptoDaddi Also concerning that he cant raise any funds. Raising 10 mill and trying to flex with it 😂

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@VolatilityQ Most fertile quant 😎💯👍!

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@JungleRockRes

[SuperActionRumpfi @TheRealRumpfi]

@WifeyAlpha I once saw a documentation about psylocybin and it's medical usecase. They were mentioning that psylocybin can help people dealing with severe cluster headaches. If I recall correctly one proper dose could relief the symptoms for one or a couple of months. Whish you the best!