black...

✦ Spending $26k/month in tokens - Building AI native companies & operations ✦

[black... @TheSebBlack]

Amen.

[Naval @naval]

You have one life. Don’t settle for mediocrity.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

@RyanClogg tg: @Im_Seb

[black... @TheSebBlack]

the wedge in 4 min: what they build, why the lab can't.

cap table in 8: dilution through B + comp set (stainless $300M+ at <10 heads, contextual ai $80M).

then: '18 months. either you're top 5 when the inbound lands, or back at the lab.'

mission opens. cap table closes.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

a $28M ARR fintech founder closed an ex-anthropic eng tuesday.

$1.05M TC at the lab. $650k + 1.2% at his shop. 38% cut.

12 minutes of pitch. zero of it was comp.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

every founder watches senior engs leave for the labs.

nobody watches the reverse. 6 ex-anthropic and ex-openai engs reached out to peer founders this month wanting back into small co.

labs solved comp. they didn't solve mission.

your hiring pitch is the new TC offer.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

the founders who win h2 2026:

structure your cap table so the top 10 stay through earnout.
talk to deal counsel before the inbound.
know which 3 engineers the buyer is actually paying for.

your retention agreements are the new term sheet.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

4 frontier labs. 4 deals. 5 days.

none of them were technically acquisitions.

the M&A playbook for our class just rewrote itself in real time.

here's what it actually looks like now:

[black... @TheSebBlack]

the founder math just inverted.

your ARR is not the asset anymore.

your top 10 humans are.

if they're not under 18-month retention agreements signed by the right counsel, you don't have a sellable company. you have a payroll.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

my daughter turned 5 this month. some math hit me today.

when she has her first interview, openai will be older than i am now.

i wrote four posts on the M&A wave today. all about the next 18 weeks.

her career starts in 2043. our class is solving for the wrong window.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

told him: take the call this week.

not the offer. the call.

h2 2026 has 18 weeks left, and the optionality dies the day sam rings the bell.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

peer founder DM'd me this morning. 9 people. dev tools co. $1.8M ARR.

anthropic emailed him friday. no deck request. just "would you take a call this week."

his message to me was one line: "do i answer or do i wait."

[black... @TheSebBlack]

the stainless comp from may 18 was $300M+ for under 10 heads. north of $30M per early engineer.

it's not an ARR multiple. it's neutralize-the-competitor money. 5 buyers are bidding for it right now.

on day 1 of openai's IPO the pool collapses to 1.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

karpathy joined anthropic this month. his job: use claude to train claude.

every founder reading this as a talent war is missing the moment.

the labs just turned on recursive self-improvement.

be the dev tools layer they have to acquire. or get left behind.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

if you're a senior ai eng reading this:

the highest-EV career bet on the board right now isn't joining a frontier lab.

it's being top-10 at a dev tools company the labs need to buy by end of 2027.

prestige is the booby prize this cycle.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

3 senior ai engineers turned down frontier lab offers this month.

each one took a smaller bet.

here's the math they all ran.

and what it says about the next 18 months for our class:

[black... @TheSebBlack]

the pattern they're all running:

the labs are mature. high prestige. high comp. dead equity.

the M&A window stays open 12-18 months. dev tools winners get bought at $200M to $500M.

eng #4 at the right shop beats eng #4000 at openai.

[black... @TheSebBlack]

3 founders DM'd me this week. same question.

"sell to a frontier lab now or wait?"

openai files S-1. anthropic closes $30B at $900B. stainless went for $300M+.

buyer pool drops from 5 to 1 the day openai prints. h2 2026 is the last great AI M&A window.