The Tesla Signal

Tracking what Musk's companies promise vs. what they deliver — with dates. HW3 saga • Robotaxi expansion • Optimus Production Watch, weekly.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

If you own a HW3 car, Wednesday night is your night.

Tesla reports earnings Wednesday, and shareholders have been voting all week on which questions get asked on the call. One of the most backed questions on the list is the one you have been asking all year. When do HW3 owners get the upgrade?

You know the history. Tesla promised HW3 owners a path back in April, a discounted trade in or a computer and camera swap. Six months later there is still no price and no date, and v14 Lite is where your cars stop.

The voting closes Tuesday at 4 PM Eastern. Wednesday night Tesla either answers it in front of everyone, or skips it in front of everyone.

So, HW3 owners. What do you need to hear Wednesday? A real date? A price you can plan around? Or are you done waiting on soon?

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@dexxdexxxx Pretty much. Nov 9 plus eight months lands in early July, so end of summer is only about a month or two past that. That is the whole gap.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

Tesla enthusiasts, you called it out, and Elon caved.

Five days ago, the line was winding down for Cybercab. Two days ago, it was shutting down in about 8 months, with deposits going back to a lot of people.

Today, production runs through the end of summer 2027 to work through the backlog, and Elon says it is not the smartest move for profit. His word for it: sentimentality.

Did the pushback save the Cybertruck?

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@IaidoTheory Fair catch. It is a couple extra months, not a save the line forever move. End of summer vs June or July is the whole gap, and the backlog is why he bothered at all.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@Dustonstafford Yeah that first one slipped past a lot of people. Five days ago was the Cybercab line taking over part, then Nov 9 was the 8 months and deposits back post. Did you catch the Nov 9 one when it dropped?

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

https://t.co/b3YRUzYkAs
https://t.co/Z6dfJrDXOw

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The Cybertruck order rate far exceeds our production rate. We will try to make as many as possible before shutting down the line in about 8 months, but will have to return deposits for a lot of people.

This is not a case of Cybertruck being unprofitable, as has been misreported by legacy media, but rather that the opportunity cost of the complexity of Cybertruck is vastly outweighed by the value of incremental Cybercab production.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

https://t.co/lpozP63DNR
https://t.co/DTLnylxUQR

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

This is not the smartest move from a profit-maximizing standpoint btw, but there must be some room in this world for sentimentality or what’s the point?

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@PaulLee_TX The Cybertruck comparison is fair, but the scale is different. Millions of HW4 cars versus one low volume truck. If they move on, what do they tell the people who bought FSD on HW4?

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

About 71,000 Cybertrucks. More than 610,000 Model S and X over 14 years. The newest of them run HW4, and for the S, the X, and the Cybertruck, HW4 is the ceiling.

Tesla says HW4 is enough for unsupervised driving. It said the same about HW3.

HW3 owners were promised a retrofit in January 2025. Almost two years later, no date, no price, no way to book one, and the October earnings call skipped the question entirely.

So the question is not whether HW4 works today.

When HW4 runs out, will Tesla offer the next board, or stay silent like it did with HW3?

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@watermen1984 True on the tech. The problem is the promise was sold with the car, not with the someday.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@LeeStafford Same question, different chip. If they ever offer the computer, the MCU has to come with it, or the car still feels old.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@JonathanOC Yeah, and that is the problem. If the answer was good news, Tesla would have said it by now.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@chasingmooncake That split makes sense. Transfers for HW3 and a paid path for HW4 would settle most of the argument. Right now there is not even a price to argue about, and that is the problem.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@TeslaGong Golden until it costs you an upgrade.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@PaulLee_TX Yeah, the ASS gap on the legacy cars is the sore spot. Whatever board comes next is the real test. Does Tesla offer the upgrade or just move on?

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@OrthoPlaid That is the bet, yeah. HW3 was supposed to be enough too, and look where that ended up.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@watermen1984 Fair point. Supervised is the part we actually live with every day, and it keeps getting better even on the old chip. Unsupervised is the promise that needs a receipt though.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

If Elon and Tesla are too busy with robotaxis and treating regular cars like an afterthought, they might as well just hand the IP over to @UnpluggedTesla.

[UP @UnpluggedTesla]

An open offer to Tesla: We fully support putting Cybercab first, and we’d be glad to take the Cybertruck line off your hands.
We’d fund it with a consortium of investors and run it at no cost to Tesla’s floor space, headcount, or focus. All of that goes to Cybercab. Cybercab gets first call on battery cells too. We’ll wait our turn.
Tesla gains incremental profit: a license fee, plus FSD and Robotaxi network revenues on every vehicle built.
We’d build the Cybertruck, a three-row CyberSUV, and an unmanned CyberCargo hauler. More autonomous miles, across every surface of this planet and beyond.
Worth a conversation?

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

https://t.co/Z6dfJrDXOw

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The Cybertruck order rate far exceeds our production rate. We will try to make as many as possible before shutting down the line in about 8 months, but will have to return deposits for a lot of people.

This is not a case of Cybertruck being unprofitable, as has been misreported by legacy media, but rather that the opportunity cost of the complexity of Cybertruck is vastly outweighed by the value of incremental Cybercab production.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

@PraktischPS Fair on the allocation math. The flip side is the buyers. Premium AWD orders are just gone, Musk said a lot of deposits go back, and the fleet math only pays off if Cybercab actually ships.

[The Tesla Signal @TheTeslaSignal]

Tesla just made the Cybertruck a one trim truck.

Monday night the Premium AWD stopped being orderable. The only one left is the Cyberbeast, now $109,990 after a $7,500 jump.

The truck promised at $39,900 now starts at $109,990, and only in its most expensive form.

Musk said Monday the line shuts down in about 8 months, and deposits go back to a lot of people.

What happens to the buyers who were waiting on the Premium AWD?