John Thomas

Political Ad Man, Republican Strategist, and Entrepreneur.

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

It was such an honor to kick off our inaugural @NestpointFDN gala at the @kencen with such inspirational and exceptional honorees. The United States is the most exceptional place on earth.

Thanks to our Nestpoint Fellows and everyone who came from across the nation and around the globe to share in the celebration.

@HARRISFAULKNER @KatiePavlich @Cernovich @megynkelly @PeteHegseth @MaryMargOlohan @bungarsargon @StephenMoore @Annewilsonmusic @KadhimWaeli @HenryNestpoint @Jscottpace @cjpearson @MichaelPMurph16

[Fox News @FoxNews]

America's next economic powerhouse takes shape in Texas as companies abandon the Bay Area in California.

A new report shows Texas attracted 230 corporate relocations between 2018 and 2025, with Dallas, Austin and Houston leading the charge.

Meanwhile, California suffered the nation's steepest corporate losses, with more than 160 companies moving their headquarters out of the San Francisco Bay Area, citing taxes, labor regulations and soaring costs.

[Kalshi Politics @KalshiPolitics]

Thank you to everyone involved with our election night livestream including our fantastic hosts:
@kurtbardella & @Erinmaguire

And guests:
@StuDoesAmerica
@JamesCarville
@KendallScudder
@TheThomasGuide

And @Politicon for hosting the livestream here: https://t.co/8e4Oygi0NM

[Erin Maguire @Erinmaguire]

Did you miss @partylinespod live from @KalshiPolitics in DFW yesterday?

Rewatch it here, including our interviews with @JamesCarville, Predictable’s @StuDoesAmerica,
GOP Strategist @TheThomasGuide, & TX Dem Chair @kendallschudder on @Politicon

https://t.co/828cJFm4Uu

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

💯 correct.

[derek guy @dieworkwear]

dont know anything about spencer pratt. but imo it's not a good idea for male politicians to wear black dress shirts, which were historically associated with seedy nightclub owners and criminals. does not inspire trust.

[Nestpoint Group @NestpointGRP]

“The campaigns have determined they can’t move their own numbers, but perhaps they can disqualify the other.” — John Thomas in the Texas Tribune

John Thomas on why the Cornyn–Paxton runoff has become a battle of attrition as much as persuasion. @TheThomasGuide @TexasTribune

https://t.co/ewrgFpvbXF

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

That is the point. Consolidate the gop around Pratt and block Raman from a runoff. This is a standard tactic these days.

[Dr. Ben Braddock @GraduatedBen]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen an attack ad that comes off as an endorsement like this one

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

To be precise, don't you mean he is sitting in 5th place according to this internal survey?

[Rick J. Caruso @RickCarusoLA]

Wow, @MattMahanSJ tied for second place among Democrats. As more voters get to know Matt, they like him. He’s one of the only candidates with a positive net favorability rating and the ONLY candidate with a real proven track record of solving problems with common sense solutions.

[The Hill & Valley Forum @HillValleyForum]

"Our head count in Manhattan when I got to JPMorgan was 35,000 and now is 26,000. Our head count in Texas started at 11,000, now it's 33,000. That's what happens."

Jamie Dimon on why companies are leaving New York:

"Highest individual taxes, highest estate taxes, highest corporate taxes, anti-business sentiment."

"When I grew up as a kid in New York City, there were 120 of the Fortune 500 headquarters there. In the 1970s, 60 of the 120 left, including Exxon, GE, IBM, Union Carbide. They're all going to Texas."

The Hill & Valley Forum 2026

@HillValleyForum @jpmorgan @ChairmanG

[Jon Hartley @Jon_Hartley_]

“How to Hollow Out Your State’s Economy” via @WSJ https://t.co/br2NDEnopP

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

We are beginning to see a trend.

[Douglas A. Boneparth @dougboneparth]

How to avoid the Washington State millionaire tax:

1. Leave Washington

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

This survey soft shoes (incorrectly) the entire concept of the wealth tax as it is being framed by the proponents and on the ballot. Asks voters about taxing "high income earners". That's not what this billionaire tax is. It is taxing billionaires and voters of California are inclined to stick it to them.

[Dustin Gardiner @dustingardiner]

First in CA Playbook: A new pro-Swalwell IE is up with its first seven-figure TV buy. Its donors include the California Medical Association, Global Medical Response, California Professional Firefighters and California New Car Dealers Association

More: https://t.co/w420kVViUA

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

This syncs up with why Newsom is doing whatever he can to appear to "fight" Trump.

[Evan Roth Smith @TheRealERS]

🔵NEW FROM @BlueprintPolls:

We tested Democratic Party vision statements from a range of electeds and pundits. Here's what worked, and what didnt:

“Fight” language stands out. The top-two most-preferred messages, among voters overall as well as independents, both lead with fighting language: a call to imagine a Democrat Party that “fights—really fights—for all of us” (+14 overall; +14 independents) and a push to make “the fight to restore the American Dream the heart of our party” (+12 overall; +13 independents).

Anti-woke is broke. An attack on “performative woke politics” is the second-least preferred message among voters overall (-11) and independents (-7), and the worst performing among Democrats (-33).

Name the enemy. Two messages invoke the American Dream, with very different results. One that calls out corporations and concentrated power as villains is among the most-preferred (+12), while another encouraging plain language like “get rich” but naming no antagonist is among the least-preferred by voters overall and independents (-16), and even more so by Democrats (-33). Terms like "oligarchy" don't work as well as "corporations" and "big money."

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

This syncs up with why Newsom is doing whatever he can to appear to "fight" Trump.

[Evan Roth Smith @TheRealERS]

🔵NEW FROM @BlueprintPolls:

We tested Democratic Party vision statements from a range of electeds and pundits. Here's what worked, and what didnt:

“Fight” language stands out. The top-two most-preferred messages, among voters overall as well as independents, both lead with fighting language: a call to imagine a Democrat Party that “fights—really fights—for all of us” (+14 overall; +14 independents) and a push to make “the fight to restore the American Dream the heart of our party” (+12 overall; +13 independents).

Anti-woke is broke. An attack on “performative woke politics” is the second-least preferred message among voters overall (-11) and independents (-7), and the worst performing among Democrats (-33).

Name the enemy. Two messages invoke the American Dream, with very different results. One that calls out corporations and concentrated power as villains is among the most-preferred (+12), while another encouraging plain language like “get rich” but naming no antagonist is among the least-preferred by voters overall and independents (-16), and even more so by Democrats (-33). Terms like "oligarchy" don't work as well as "corporations" and "big money."

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

The fundamental dynamics of the race haven't changed. He passed on it once based on those dynamics. The wise call would be to sit this one out.

[California Post @californiapost]

Rick Caruso reconsiders return to LA mayor’s race after damning Bass report: ‘Loss of public trust’ https://t.co/yxHIoTZ1z2

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

The problem with this analysis is that it likely doesnt model how an R vs D race will play out. In reality the math isnt there for a D statewide this cycle in Texas. Will Paxton need to define his opponent as an extreme liberal? Yes. But once a campaign plays out it is hard to see Paxton losing.

Does Cornyn start in a more marketable position than Paxton? Yes. But both are viable to win. One R just wins more easily.

[Gabby Birenbaum @birenbomb]

New NRSC internal shows Talarico beating Paxton in a head-to-head, Crockett coming within 1

Cornyn is +3 vs Talarico, +7 vs Crockett

H/t ⁦@burgessev⁩

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

The problem with this analysis is that it likely doesnt model how an R vs D race will play out. In reality the math isnt there for a D statewide this cycle in Texas. Will Paxton need to define his opponent as an extreme liberal? Yes. But once a campaign plays out it is hard to see Paxton losing.

Does Cornyn start in a more marketable position than Paxton? Yes. But both are viable to win. One R just wins more easily.

[Gabby Birenbaum @birenbomb]

New NRSC internal shows Talarico beating Paxton in a head-to-head, Crockett coming within 1

Cornyn is +3 vs Talarico, +7 vs Crockett

H/t ⁦@burgessev⁩

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

This vote is less about economics and more about values. California voters are comfortable taxing wealth. Capital, on the other hand, is highly mobile. Both realities can coexist.

California voters are signaling something very clearly. They are far more concerned with cost of living and public services than with the financial well-being of billionaires or the warnings coming from political and economic elites.

[John Thomas @TheThomasGuide]

Our firm's new statewide poll: the California Wealth Tax is currently favored to pass.

Uninformed ballot test:

Yes: 60%
No: 23.6%
Undecided: 16.1%
n=907 | MOE ±3%

@NestpointGRP

[California Post @californiapost]

Exclusive | Stunning number of California voters back wealth tax but admit it will kill jobs: poll https://t.co/tLQ04KZxg1

[Jami Burns @jamiburns45]

⚠️Senate Dems threaten to shut down gov’t over DHS funding • Immigration officials frustrated with DHS response🌟Stellar insight: @TheThomasGuide, @toddstarnes @NEWSMAX

[Nestpoint Group @NestpointGRP]

“The country that controls the Arctic region will have a significant advantage in a power struggle between China and the U.S.”

— John Thomas @TheThomasGuide, Managing Director @NestpointGRP
via @NewsNation