The_Cheeb

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right.....

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@hughesanalytics "Almost everything is more complicated and nuanced than what someone's simple explanation is trying to lead you to believe."

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@jfais20 I've told my wife several times:
"My highest stress is when we're losing a lot of money. My second highest stress is when we're gaining a lot of money."

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

DSMMA Morning Brief
07/02/2026
(Please like, RT and Comment if Useful 🙏)

------------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT

POSTURE: Capital Preservation. Do not chase pre-NFP positioning. Equity and bond dips are buyable, but a VERY hot print needs time to settle before reaching.

The economic backdrop remains fine. Growth is decent, wages are flat to down, oil is well below the original war breakout, and a July hike remains very unlikely. The Fed projected hawkishness, but still has time to walk that signal back.

The equity selling window is closing. We would prefer the correction to continue, but if it does not happen soon, lower summer liquidity and passive flows can push the correction window toward the end of summer.

Bonds are buyable on dips across the curve. Warsh treating market pricing as more important than surveys is a positive long-term factor for our trading, but a VERY hot Non-farm print is not the spot to be first buying the dip.

Oil remains a sell on large rallies, though the low 60s are likely buyable for a short-term trade. Gold is finally stabilizing, and dips under 4k have been bought.

BTC was saved under 60k, which creates some interest in shorter-term trades. Longer term, there is still little reason to believe the bear market is over.

C-MAPE remains in Capital Preservation at 0.60. The score continues to improve, but defensive sleeves still dominate the portfolio.

------------------------------------

MACRO / EQUITIES

Today is all about Non-farm. When we look at the economic backdrop, US growth is decent, wages are flat to down, oil is trading well under the original war breakout, and the Fed has projected hawkishness while still having time to walk that signal back.

The chances of a July hike are very minimal. Hiking into crashing oil would be peak stupidity when they could just wait a single meeting. This points to a possible window of dollar weakness, bonds being buyable on dips, and equities moving in the direction of the economy. Stocks have been treating positive economic news as positive, so even on a higher Non-farm print, I would expect dips to be buyable as well.

The overall picture is mixed, but the short-term setups are fairly clear. Summer is here, liquidity will remain light, and that generally favors a slow grind higher in equities. There is just not enough selling pressure when people step away, and passive flows can slowly grind equities higher until the seasonally weak Aug/Sep period, when Wall Street wakes back up.

We would much prefer this equity selling to continue, but the window is closing. It needs to happen soon, or it likely does not happen at all and the correction gets pushed toward the end of the summer. In a seasonally strong period with lower participation, people will lack the conviction needed to blow out exposure, which only pushes the correction timeframe out.

------------------------------------

BONDS / RATES / FX

Bonds sold off yesterday in anticipation that Warsh would slip up and give forward guidance. A July hike was already not the most probable outcome, and with how oil is trading, mixed with decreasing wage pressures, there is little reason to fear one.

The main glimpse of information we got from the central bank panel was how much more Warsh treats market pricing as a factor than the previous Fed. Inflation swaps, breakevens, 5y5y forwards, etc., will matter far more than University of Michigan surveys and other types of metrics. That is a positive long-term factor for our trading.

For now, dips are buyable across the curve, but on a VERY hot Non-farm print, I would give the market time to breathe and not be the first one buying the dip.

------------------------------------

COMMODITIES

Oil continues to be sold, and rightfully so. You could not have come up with a better setup for oil bulls to see prices go over 150, and the market still could not hold a bid above 100.

Modern supply dynamics point to ever-increasing supply, with countries wanting to cash in on their oil faster as they see oil’s relevance dwindling. I have been saying this for a long time, but even I am surprised by how well the market handled not only the Strait being closed, but how much oil still made it into the market during the extended closure. Oil is a sell on any large rallies, but for a short-term trade, the low 60s is likely a buy.

Gold is finally starting to stabilize, and dips under 4k have been bought. This remains a logical area for long-term exposure, as the macro backdrop for gold is still strong. The price excess and froth have been worked out of the system, and short-term trading opportunities should start to present themselves.

------------------------------------

CRYPTO (BTC)

BTC got saved under 60k, and there is some interest in shorter-term trades, as we have been discussing. That said, longer term, there is little reason to expect the bear market to be over. Any long trade should be handled with that in mind.

------------------------------------

Updated CCS / C-MAPE draft from these screenshots:

CCS / C-MAPE

The macro table remains mixed, with an average score of -1.3. Bullish readings still show up in equities, USD, and parts of energy, while rates, metals, and BTC remain under pressure. RTY and DXY are outright extended, while palladium and Bitcoin are outright oversold.

Extremes remain selective:

- Outright extended: RTY, DXY, XLI, SPLV, JPM, LLY, UNH
- Approaching extreme: USDJPY, USDCAD, XBI, JNJ, BAC, AMD
- Outright oversold: palladium, Bitcoin
- Approaching washed-out: ZT, EURUSD, platinum, gold, XLC, FXI, MSFT, NFLX

Sectors and world ETFs remain positive overall, but leadership is narrower:

- Sectors + world ETFs average score: 2.3
- Bullish: 13
- Bearish: 3
- OB / OS: 2 / 0
- Near ±7: 3

Top stocks remain mixed, with an average score of 1.1. JPM, LLY, and UNH are outright extended, while MSFT and NFLX remain near washed-out levels.

C-MAPE remains in Capital Preservation with a decision score of 0.60. Current positioning is still defensive:

- 30.1% GLD
- 30.0% UUP
- 29.9% SHY
- 10.0% SPY

The score continues to improve, but the regime has not changed. Equity extension has cooled from prior extremes, broad beta remains heavily constrained, and the defensive sleeves still dominate the portfolio.

--------------------------------

Follow @PiQSuite for best News Source on the internet!

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.

All opinions are my own. **I am not a professional.** Please trade responsibly

--------------------------------

== Preparation Beats Prediction ==

@DSMMAprivate

--------------------------------

Good luck and God Bless!

- Nik "The Carny" Lentz

[Anthony Crudele @AnthonyCrudele]

End of the month, end of the quarter. That is what today is all about. If we step back and look at where the trends sit technically, equities continue to tread higher after a really solid hold on yesterday's selloff. Metals and energy continue to trend down.

Heading into end of month and end of quarter you typically get some fireworks in the final five to ten minutes of trading. End of Q2 normally has the least amount of fireworks given the lower participation compared to year end, but I still expect a busy close today and a continuation of what we saw yesterday. Yesterday's lows in the indexes were really good. We held the weekly opening range low coming off Sunday night across the board, and I expect the indexes to continue chipping higher from here.

Here are the key levels I am watching. On the ES, 7,420. As long as that holds I think we are headed to 7,720 by next week. On the NQ, if we hold 29,480 I believe we are headed to 31,600 within the next week or two.

I keep it simple when I look at the trend for the year. We are staying above the one standard deviation anchored VWAP from the first day of the year and these indexes are trending well. Period. Some people look at the rotation between the Dow, Russell, and Nasdaq and call it bearish. I believe the opposite. The fact that we keep rotating in and out of these three tells me this tape is strong and we will continue to make new all-time highs.

On metals and energy, they are out of favor for now, but we will see what the first day of the month brings tomorrow. Today I expect them to remain weak and choppy. If buying shows up tomorrow in energy and metals, watch the opening candle for the new month to see if they can build any momentum from there. We will also be watching how the jobs report comes out Friday to see what impact it has on the dollar and rates.

The risks are still out there. A stronger dollar and the potential for higher rates remain real concerns. But the equity indexes are looking past all of that right now and I continue to believe they are in play. This is a buy the dip market. You just have to be smart about it. Do not chase prices higher. Wait for dips, wait for stability, and let your strategy give you the signal. That is where the money is made. Do not diddle in the middle.

Catch me live at 8 ET on @NTLiveMedia — full market breakdown, what I'm watching, and what's next.

🎥 Watch live here: https://t.co/9z8ov9Bgpu

Want this in your inbox every morning? It's free: https://t.co/ZFla3NtPSq
Cheers, DELI

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@SethCL I'm guessing you're making some kind of point about patience in the market-- locking the account and not letting anyone back in who gets frustrated and unfollows you while you are doing "this".

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

DSMMA Morning Brief
06/23/2026

------------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT

POSTURE: Capital Preservation. Do not chase equity bounces, do not buy BTC or oil dips, and wait for either a 7200 test or multiple daily closes back above 7495 before reassessing equity risk.

Not much interesting is happening at the beginning of the week. Iran headlines should mostly be ignored now, and PCE prices or final GDP are unlikely to change the perceived path of a hawkish Fed.

Equities are now trading below the important 7495 momentum level. Intraday weakness below that level is not a signal to press shorts, but a daily close below it flips momentum to neutral with a bearish lean. The 7200 area is around the 5% correction level, and for now I see little reason to be a dip buyer.

Bonds are finding some strength into equity weakness, but the charts still look bad. The longer-term rotation out of equities and into a more diversified portfolio still makes sense, but near-term bond swing trades remain dangerous. The front of the curve remains value, but there is still no bullish momentum there.

Oil continues to be sold into rallies. Supply dynamics are shifting from undersupply to oversupply, OPEC is still on a production-hike schedule, the UAE will pump more, and Iran sanctions are likely to be loosened as part of deal negotiations. There will be bounces, but they should be scaled out of quickly.

Gold continues to trade horribly. The 3900-4000 area remains a good long-term allocation zone, but there is no reason to use it for Alpha while momentum remains negative and gold keeps underperforming on risk-on days.

BTC is still not a dip to buy. STRC, MSTR, and the yield-scheme complex remain major drags, and more damage is likely before the space is cleaned up.

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@jfais20 Leave the 'stache and goatee, see how it looks.

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@jfais20 I've been doing it for over 31 years in the shower with a disposable razor. Can't see what I'm doing and cut myself a little once in a while, but it works for me.

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@jfais20 @seedy19tron @FT I hold some NKTR, but I'm more interested in how much of the APGE buyout money gets re-invested in biotech, and how much goes elsewhere.

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

DSMMA Morning Brief
06/18/2026
(please Like, RT and Comment 🙏)

------------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT

POSTURE: Capital Preservation. Adjust to the Warsh reaction, but do not chase passive equity beta or duration. Wait on the front end and expect oil to keep fading.

Warsh changed the near-term asset map. The dollar weakness trade I expected from the Iran safety bid coming out is now off the table. The dollar held firm, the front of the curve took the hit, and long duration remained bid.

Equities remain extended, and C-MAPE is still only carrying 5.0% SPY. Passive equity beta has not earned its way back into the portfolio. If you need to put money to work, look under the surface at software and select healthcare names instead of chasing index beta.

SOFR is pricing multiple hikes, but it has been wrong by magnitudes before. The front of the curve now presents value, but it is still too early to attack. The bond market trends better than equities, and stepping in front of that too early is how you lose money even when you end up "right".

Oil has very few reasons to be bought unless the war fully restarts. Oversupply concerns matter more than SPR refills, and under 70 is now in play.

Gold is weaker near term because of dollar strength and the front-end move, but nothing Warsh said changes the longer-term allocation case. It remains decent to add on dips for long-term portfolios, but the alpha portfolio risk is high.

STRC closing at 89 is the first real stress signal in the BTC yield complex. The bear market is not finished yet, but the signs are finally starting to show. Wait for a FTX-style blow up.

------------------------------------

MACRO

Warsh’s first appearance on stage was successful. He walked back the idea that he was going to be a dovish puppet, while leaving plenty of hints that two-way action on the next rate decisions is possible. He floated the dollar higher, crashed only the front of the curve, and long duration remained bid. The removal of forward guidance will scare a lot of people, but for those of us in markets every day, it should be a huge advantage.

The main adjustment is that I expected a period of dollar weakness as the Iran safety bid came out. That is now out the window. The dollar held firm, the front of the curve took the hit, and long duration remained bid. The front end now presents great value, but you will have a very hard time convincing a bond trader of that.

Markets have personalities, and the bond market is very slow to move against established thinking. Fading it can be a death sentence. Even when you are right, you can still lose money. We have not added any SOFR positions for a long time for this reason. The Fed hiking into the end of the war is very unlikely, but if the market wants to price it, you cannot fight that just because you think it is wrong. Stocks mean revert. Bonds trend much better. Step in front of that too early and you will have a bad time.

While Warsh was handing out task forces like Oprah gives away cars, we also have to assume many of his big ideas fail through bureaucracy, entrenched establishment thinking, and poor execution. There is close to zero chance we get a full reworking of data collection methods or rid ourselves of outdated survey responses anytime soon. Government-tied enterprises are slow moving and inefficient. So is the Fed. Look no further than their building project.

The basic outlook after this meeting is positive for the dollar, okay for longer duration if you believe he is actually open to bringing inflation down, bad for gold in the near term but neutral longer term, and negative for the front of the curve. A lot of the front-end damage is already done, but it remains too early to attack those trades now.

The next meeting could be a complete 180 if oil drops under 70. So, strong opinions held loosely, or whatever trader aphorism you prefer.

------------------------------------

EQUITIES

The overnight bounce makes sense only because dip buying has become the default setting. Warsh’s first outing was not positive for stock indices. The 30-year is holding in, but the 10-year has faded, and if hikes remain priced into the curve, near-term equity risk premiums should rise. That puts a cap on equity rallies, even if stocks are great at looking through data and operating on a longer timeframe.

I would NOT be adding to passive equity risk here. If you need to put money to work, look under the surface at some of the laggards instead of chasing index beta. Software and select healthcare still make more sense than blindly buying the same crowded winners if you must.

Equities are unattractive, but I do not suggest raising any more cash at this point. That should have already been done. Now it is time to wait for the next pullback. Do not get FOMO because the market bounced overnight.

------------------------------------

BONDS / RATES / FX

SOFR is on its way to pricing multiple hikes, but people forget it has done this several times in the 2020s and has been off by magnitudes on both cuts and hikes. It is more of a snapshot of current dynamics than a predictor of anything, and I do not think it represents a valid view past the next Fed meeting.

That said, longer duration is holding in because Warsh is being taken seriously. The front of the curve is doing the same thing in the opposite direction by selling off. I do not believe Warsh had any option other than to come out hawkish. There was literally nothing to gain from looking like a Trump lackey and everything to lose.

I would not buy the dip in the front of the curve yet, nor would I chase duration here. I liked duration when the CCS models on equities and bonds were at extremes. That time has passed.

------------------------------------

COMMODITIES

Oil is fading, and I see close to zero reason to buy it. We have covered this topic endlessly over the last few months. Oversupply concerns far outweigh SPR refills and the other bullish arguments. Unless there is a full restart of the war, I believe oil will be trading under 70 soon enough.

Gold is in an interesting position, because the selloff yesterday made total sense. Near term, with dollar strength and the front of the curve crashing, gold was bound to sell off as well. I do not think anything Warsh said was negative for gold longer term. I remain in the camp that gold is decent to add to long-term portfolios on dips, but from an alpha perspective, the risk is high.

------------------------------------

CRYPTO (BTC)

STRC closed at 89, which is the first real sign of stress I have been waiting for before becoming interested in a BTC investment again. The complex needs a lot more damage, but we are finally starting to see these yield-farming scams take a hit.

We still need an FTX-style blowup to put the finishing touches on this bear market. We are not there yet, but the signs are starting to show.

------------------------------------

CCS / C-MAPE

Equities remain extended at 7.21, while rates improved to -4.37 but remain negative. USD held positive at 1.08, metals are near neutral at -0.09, and energy remains weak at -0.97.

Equity extremes remain concentrated in cyclicals, semis, and select large-cap names:

- Outright extended: JPM, RTY, XLI
- Approaching extreme: DXY, USDJPY, AMD, BAC, copper, ES, NQ, SMH, SPHB, UNH
- Outright oversold: CRM, NFLX
- Approaching washed-out: Bitcoin, ZF, EURUSD, palladium, XLC

Macro spreads improved under the surface:

- Credit strong
- Growth strong
- Cyclicals improving
- Financials weakening

Global divergence remains mostly unchanged:

- Global markets, developed ex-US, Japan, and Brazil remain constructive versus the US
- EM remains strong versus developed ex-US
- Europe, the UK, and China remain very weak versus the US
- China remains very weak versus EM

C-MAPE slipped again, with the decision score falling to 0.36 while staying in Capital Preservation. Current positioning remains defensive:

- 43.1% GLD
- 31.4% UUP
- 20.5% SHY
- 5.0% SPY

Equities remain extended, and C-MAPE is still only carrying 5.0% SPY. The model remains locked in Capital Preservation while broad beta stays out of the portfolio.

--------------------------------

Follow @PiQSuite for best News Source on the internet!

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.

All opinions are my own. **I am not a professional.** Please trade responsibly

--------------------------------

== Preparation Beats Prediction ==

@DSMMAprivate

--------------------------------

Good luck and God Bless!

- Nik "The Carny" Lentz

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

DSMMA Morning Brief
06/17/2026

(Please like, RT and Comment if useful 🙏)

------------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT

POSTURE: Capital Preservation. Do not chase passive indices, look under the SPX surface, buy bond dips, and watch for USD weakness if Warsh tilts dovish.

Equities remain extended, and C-MAPE is still only carrying 5.1% SPY. The model remains locked in Capital Preservation while broad beta stays out of the portfolio.

It is Fed day. Warsh is expected to take control, remove some hawkish bias, and come off as boring as possible. A dovish tilt should be negative for USD, but the first few meetings could be messy.

Stocks do not need to be chased higher. If you are underallocated, the better spots are individual names in software and healthcare while trimming big tech winners. Passive stock-index adds make no sense here.

Bonds are back near the end-of-war highs while the front end lags. If Warsh is anything less than a hawk, the front end should catch up. Bonds are hard to chase today, but still buyable on dips.

Oil continues to crash as oversupply risk builds. Gold is responding well to post-war dynamics, but 4400 is the first real test. I see no reason to own BTC at this time.

------------------------------------

MACRO / EQUITY INDICES

It is Fed day, which means we all hurry up to wait for 2. Warsh will take the lead today and is expected to tilt the presser from more information to less, remove some of the hawkish bias from the last meeting, and take control from Powell, even though Powell did not leave behind the scenes.

I expect Warsh to come off as boring as possible while reporters pick at whether he is actually in control or just a puppet. He will have a hostile press this meeting, so it will be interesting to see how he handles it. Long run, I expect a typical “Fed guy,” but the first few meetings could be spicy.

All that said, I expect him to tilt dovish, which should be negative for the dollar. For stocks, there is no reason to chase prices higher. If you are underallocated, I would look at individual names in software and healthcare while trimming big tech winners. I do not like small caps, but there is value under the SPX surface. In no way would I be adding to passive stock-index allocations at this time.

------------------------------------

BONDS / RATES / FX

Bonds are back to the end-of-war highs, while the front of the curve lags. This makes sense given the Fed meeting today, and if Warsh can come off as anything less than a hawk, I believe the front end should catch up. It is hard to chase bonds today, but they are buyable on dips. Hopefully you invested in some TIPS and bonds near the lows when C-MAPE pressed the idea.

------------------------------------

COMMODITIES

Oil continues to crash, and rightfully so. There is going to be an oversupply threat sooner than later, and global SPR reserves dampened VOL exactly as designed. The war does appear to be over, with the MOUs already signed and Friday being mostly for show. That said, the situation is fluid, and nothing is certain in life besides death.

Gold has responded well to the post-war dynamics, and I expect dollar weakness to show up, real rates to drop, and gold to catch a bid. However, the first real test of strength is around 4400, and you can see there are sellers there at the moment. For now, if you are not long, I would not chase, but the appearance of a medium-term swing low looks in place.

------------------------------------

CRYPTO (BTC)

I see no reason to own BTC at this time.

------------------------------------

CCS / C-MAPE

Equities remain extended at 7.25, while rates improved to -3.74 but remain negative. USD held neutral at 0.99, metals improved to 0.49, and energy remains weak at -0.96.

Equity extremes continue to rebuild:

- Outright extended: RTY, XLI, XLP, SMH
- Approaching extreme: JPM, AMD, BAC, copper, ES, LLY, NQ, SPHB, UNH
- Outright oversold: NFLX, CRM
- Approaching washed-out: Bitcoin

Macro spreads remain mixed under the surface:

- Credit strong
- Growth strong
- Cyclicals neutral
- Financials weakening, though short-term flow improved

Global divergence remains mostly unchanged:

- Global markets, developed ex-US, Japan, and Brazil remain constructive versus the US
- EM remains strong versus developed ex-US
- Europe, the UK, and China remain very weak versus the US
- China remains very weak versus EM

C-MAPE slipped again, with the decision score falling to 0.39 while staying in Capital Preservation. Current positioning remains defensive:

- 43.7% GLD
- 30.9% UUP
- 20.4% SHY
- 5.1% SPY

Equities are extended again, and C-MAPE is still only carrying 5.1% SPY. The model remains locked in Capital Preservation while broad beta stays out of the portfolio.

--------------------------------

Follow @PiQSuite for best News Source on the internet!

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.

All opinions are my own. **I am not a professional.** Please trade responsibly

--------------------------------

== Preparation Beats Prediction ==

@DSMMAprivate

--------------------------------

Good luck and God Bless!

- Nik "The Carny" Lentz

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@EconstratPB Just helping our daughter with her mid 5 figure portfolio stresses the living crap out of me.

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@wabuffo post the gif damn you we need the gif

[Bill @wabuffo]

IYKYK - Part Deux 😎

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

06/04/2026 - Market Overview video released every morning in @DSMMAprivate.

Designed to cover the major macro assets, trades we are watching, and the short to medium-term trading outlook.

**NOT investment Advice**

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@cantonmeow they only buy above the 1.414 extension

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@A_May_MD Any insight / wild guesses how this dump might affect the expected capital raise?
(if the stock price had not dumped)

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@PrestonWidmer @jfais20 @John_Dabell If you have followed Jonathan for years, as I have, you would know that he is being sincere.
A very rare breed on social media.

Not surprising that you would think otherwise; you would be correct 99,999 times out of 100,000
about someone posting what he did.

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@thanium @EconstratPB good catch, that term is hella overused

[The_Cheeb @The_Cheeb]

@TheProfInvestor Wen 12:45pm expirations ?