#Think32

Cross community, non-party political movement to promote & encourage debate on reunification of Ireland #Think32. We've 1 rule, please be respectful.

[John Doyle @JohnDoyleDCU]

If the UK reneges on pensions, including employment based pensions, there is no real world in which Ireland volunteers to take on debt and no way for the UK to force the issue. A united Ireland cannot end up with both debt and pensions - in the worst case scenario its either /or.

[John Doyle @JohnDoyleDCU]

There is no basis in national, contract or international law for UK debt to be passed on to a united Ireland, it could only be done voluntarily by an Irish govt.  If something else was on the table it might be negotiated.

[John Doyle @JohnDoyleDCU]

High cost reports all assume that a united Ireland will be responsible for 100% of pension payments to people resident in NI (including 100% of all public sector employment based pensions - c. €5b) and also will take a proportion of the UK state debt (around €4b).

[John Doyle @JohnDoyleDCU]

Reports with high cost figures have not allowed for tax, prsi, USC and pension contributions on a pay rise. As public sector workers know, they will overwhelmingly return over 50% of any pay rise to the state in such contributions. (reducing the actual costs by €2.9b in year 1)

[John Doyle @JohnDoyleDCU]

(iii) there will be issues to negotiate with trade unions, as in addition to wages, terms and conditions also differ north and south in complex ways.

[John Doyle @JohnDoyleDCU]

(i) Cost of living will not incr. by 48% immediately, it will converge slowly.
(ii) increasing pay, for 29% of the workforce by 48% in 1 year, would cause local inflation, & disruption to the private sector, who need time to build profitability to ROI levels & to adjust wages

[John Doyle @JohnDoyleDCU]

The reports that get anywhere close to €24b make assumptions which are not credible, e.g.

a. Granting public sector workers (29% of the workforce) an average pay increase of 48% in year one of a united Ireland. The report makes clear that this is not credible.

[John Doyle @JohnDoyleDCU]

The report does not say that we cannot narrow the range between €3b and €24b - it summarises what has been published by others, and then looks at some of the calculations. It is possible to narrow down - see my Book Before the Vote. In brief , below https://t.co/b2frJpAX22

[John Doyle @JohnDoyleDCU]

I have had a lot of questions over the past few days regarding media coverage of the Fine Gael proposals on preparing for a united Ireland, and in particular the detailed report on the economics of unity by Prof Stephen Kinsella. https://t.co/snOfsrYDQY A few thoughts:

[#Think32 @Think32_]

#Think32, we all deserve better.

[#Think32 @Think32_]

Can we afford not to #Think32 ?

[Suzanne Breen @SuzyJourno]

Unionism’s worst fears are edging closer: it’s just 4 points away from the unthinkable. Staying in the UK leads Irish unity only among the over-55s in @LucidTalk poll. A border poll is a matter of when, not if. And marching backwards definitely won't work.
https://t.co/NQTw9FYLDJ

[Leo Varadkar @LeoVaradkar]

Just 4% in it now. Still too soon for ''unity poll'' as there is no stable majority for unification in the North just yet. But it is coming. Time to prepare - north and south. The FG blueprint published at the weekend sets out some of the next steps that should be now be taken. It is timely and welcome 🇨🇮☘️😀

[#Think32 @Think32_]

Lifelong loyalist and Founder of Ulster Resistance says united Ireland now ‘inevitable’
Rev Ivan Foster tells loyalists that opposition to unified state is ‘pointless’ - Hugh Jordan, Crime World #Think32 https://t.co/mqmDgNR0gs

[#Think32 @Think32_]

@d_lockets All the relevant information needs to be put before the people so they can make an informed decision. We are confident enough to respect the result of a 50 plus one referendum although the larger the result margin the better of course. #Think32

[#Think32 @Think32_]

Unionism is losing ground in border poll debate.... and running out of time. - Suzanne Breen, Belfast Telegraph #Think32

[#Think32 @Think32_]

@d_lockets A few years ago Arlene Foster was boasting about calling a border poll & nationalists losing. Now Unionists are proactively trying to prevent one,the Lucid poll clearly demonstrates that. The costs have a huge range & are dependant upon the model & British Government too #Think32

[Ireland's Future - Todhchaí na hÉireann @IrelandsFuture]

🚨Protestant voices north and south are a very important part of the unity process

🚨Monday night in UCD we welcome four people who are from Protestant backgrounds to our event

🚨This is our first panel discussion of the evening

🚨Make sure to Register

[Ireland's Future - Todhchaí na hÉireann @IrelandsFuture]

🚨We have a fantastic night ahead of us in the Fitzgerald room in UCD this evening

🚨All are welcome

🚨Please register at the link in eventbrite

🚨Event starts at 7pm sharp with opening address from former world champion Irish boxer Bernard Dunne

[Belfast Telegraph @BelTel]

Four points from the unthinkable: Unionism is losing ground in border poll debate... and running out of time

✍️: @SuzyJourno

https://t.co/oHrvQT3LpG

[Irish Border Poll @irishborderpoll]

FG Blueprint on Irish unity now makes it more likely writes @bjacollins .

Ben with other United Irelanders + groups has been engaged publicly + privately in urging FG/FF leaders to move on Unity.

@IrelandsFuture @cjhumanrights @Reunify32 @think__32

https://t.co/6oNKzTBe4V