🚨BREAKING🚨
I just released the full report on Congress trading in 2024.
Like every year since 2020, some US politicians beat the market.
From the start of 2024 to year end, many had unusual trades & huge portfolio gains.
Here are the top political traders of 2024.
The bond market is intimidating: it's full of jargon and practitioners tend to overcomplicate it.
Today, let me share with you my Bond Market 101 approach.
It will help you understand bond markets in <5 minutes.
1/
Iron ore’s slide underscores downside for oil & global hard landing concerns that have fed equity investor angst all week. Iron ore Singapore futures fell <$91/ton, set for worst week since March…it’s tumbled 35% in 2024 & headed for biggest annual decline since 2015
@Bloomberg
1/11
For a day and a half, the narrative around inflation has been desperate to tear down the January CPI report.
I believe this is wrong, and the economy is "no landing," and inflation has already bottomed (or very close to it) around 3% to 4%.
This is a problem for the bond market as it suggests that the neutral funds rate is 4% to 5% (explained below). This means the Fed has not broken anything and is not that restrictive, which is why the economy is "no landing," and inflation is sticking around 3%.
A long-ish contrarian🧵to explain and push back against the consensus thinking.
with sam and greg ousted yesterday
my initial thought yesterday was “shit they have discovered AGI” and the only person who was capable of understanding it was ilya sutskever.
now it’s seems even more an more plausible that is the case. to understand the amount of stress and pressure he must have been under i urge you to watch this short documentary.
this was recorded during the development of chatGPT. but the sincere stream of thought about the greater good AND the bad that will come from AI might put it more clear to why this might have happened.
my thesis, they have had AGI internally for a while, and Ilya, andrej karpathy might have been the first ones to grasp what they have made.
to be clear, geoff hinton regrets his life’s work (the work on AI) due to him worry about all the bad it can be used for.
maybe ilya is under similar pressure. to much for one person to bear.
regardless, we will know more soon.
i feel for all involved parties, and for the community at large. this is not great.
I keep looking at this chart and asking myself...
Who is lying?
The answer is becoming increasingly evident.
Treasuries are breaking a key support today and are likely headed much lower.
It is worth noting the recent government announcement about issuing an additional $1.85 trillion worth of US debt by the end of the year.
This is setting the stage for further pressure on 10-year yields to rise, and Nasdaq is yet to be impacted, particularly megacap tech companies.
If you:
• Avoided damage in 2021/22
• Avoided major short squeezes
• Avoided succumbing to the fear mongers
• Capitalized on opportunities
• Positioned yourself against the crowd
In short if you managed to be at all time highs right now before the indices are…
Pat yourself on the back. Great job.
If you are not, I hope you learned valuable lessons for the next decade.
We are not out of the woods yet, we all made mistakes during this bear market, but we do have a cushion now that can be used to minimize mistakes going forward.
If you did not capitalize in 2023, make sure to understand why.
If your excuse is the market should have gone down… think again.