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THREE STIX MAFIA
@ThreeStixMafia_
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Joined November 2023
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CHASE WILL COOK 🔥
🏈 TNF Dish #1
🍽️ 𝐉𝐚’𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐫 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝟔𝟗.𝟓 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐘𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬 (-𝟏𝟏𝟖 𝐃𝐊)
Cooked w/ @TonysPickz 💰
❤️ IF TAILING!
• This line of ridiculously low for a player of Chase’s caliber and it while likely be the last time we see a sub 70 yard line for him going forward. It seems the Bengals have found their bandaid at the QB position until Burrow returns.
• In his first week with Flacco behind center Ja’Marr saw 12 targets, resulting in 10 catches for 94 yards. He saw a 26% target share. The Bengals this season have been an extremely pass heavy team, posting a 67% pass rate. Last week they saw an uptick to 74%.
• This week he will be matched up against a team in the Steelers that he has historically had success against. He has cleared this line in their last 4 matchups, averaging 98 receiving yards per game. This Pittsburgh defense ranks 31st in receiving yards allowed. They have allowed several receivers to clear this line: • Cooper Kupp: 90 Yards • JSN: 103 Yards • Justin Jefferson: 126 Yards • Jordan Addison: 114 Yards
• This will likely be the most popular play on the week but for good reason. Chase should dominate here.
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#GamblingX #PrizePicks #fanduel #NFL
🏈 TNF Play #1 (10/16):
Ja’Marr Chase o69.5 Receiving Yards (-118 FD) #WhoDey
‼️ Collab with @PropKitchen 🔥
This line of ridiculously low for a player of Chase’s caliber and it while likely be the last time we see a sub 70 yard line for him going forward. It seems the Bengals have found their bandaid at the QB position until Burrow returns.
In his first week with Flacco behind center Ja’Marr saw 12 targets, resulting in 10 catches for 94 yards. He saw a 26% target share. The Bengals this season have been an extremely pass heavy team, posting a 67% pass rate. Last week they saw an uptick to 74%.
This week he will be matched up against a team in the Steelers that he has historically had success against. He has cleared this line in their last 4 matchups, averaging 98 receiving yards per game. This Pittsburgh defense ranks 31st in receiving yards allowed. They have allowed several receivers to clear this line:
• Cooper Kupp: 90 Yards
• JSN: 103 Yards
• Justin Jefferson: 126 Yards
• Jordan Addison: 114 Yards
This will likely be the most popular play on the week but for good reason. Chase should dominate here.
📊 @OutlierDotBet
#NFL #TNF #GamblingX #FanDuel
🏈 TNF Play #2 (10/16):
Jaylen Warren o74.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
(-135 ESPN) #HereWeGo
Jaylen Warren has 184 rushing yards on 54 carries and 153 receiving yards on 13 catches — that’s an average of 84.2 rushing yards+ receiving yards per game so far this season through 4 games. He has been a balanced, dual threat RB with a lot of target shares for the Steelers offense so far this season.
In this TNF matchup, Warren is likely to hit his 75+ rush & receiving yards line with the Bengals defense allowing 6 of the 7 RBs to hit their rush + receiving line so far this season. Cincinnati’s defense is also ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed (135.7) and 30th in receiving yards allowed (268.2).
His average total yardage per game (84.2) sits comfortably above the 74.5 mark, giving a built-in margin. Bengals’ defense has allowed receptions to backs — checkdowns and RB passes often rack yardage, especially when pressure is present. Hammer this line and let’s watch Warren eat vs the Bengals defense.
📊@OutlierDotBet
#NFL #TNF #Steelers #JaylenWarren #PlayerProps #PropBets #ReceivingBack #DraftKings
Trevor Rogers u5.5 HA ✅
What a sweat that was!
‼️Make that 4 straight cashes with @PropKitchen 👨🍳
The stat keeper almost cooked us there, can someone explain to me how Correa's single in the 5th wasn't an error?
#MLB #GamblingX #HRB #HardRock
CASH THAT SHIT ‼️
✅ Trevor Rogers u5.5 Hits Allowed ✅
FOUR straight collab cashes with @TonysPickz, Rogers clutches up to give us a 2-0 start!
LIKE IF YOU TAILED ❤️
Merrill Kelly o17.5 Outs ✅
Kelly dominated the Guardians today getting through 6IP in only 81 pitches
Drop a ❤️ if you tailed!
2-1 on the day
#MLB #GamblingX #ESPN
Dustin May o4.5 HA ✅
The Bronx Bombers came out swinging
May has given up 5 hits & 5 runs in less than 5 IP #DirtyWater
3-1 on the night!
#MLB #GamblingX #DraftKings
MLB Recap (8/24)
Trevor Rogers u5.5 HA ✅
Merrill Kelly o17.5 Outs ✅
Dustin May o4.5 HA ✅
Bryce Elder o5.5 HA ❌
3-1 on the day & we finish the weekend 8-3 on MLB
Aside from giving up a HR, Bryce shut down a red hot Mets lineup today
🏈 NFL Futures Bet - Tony S🏈
Omarion Hampton Over 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-110 CZR)
Why I’m Betting the Over:
•High draft capital, real opportunity
Selected 22nd overall by the Chargers in the 2025 NFL Draft, Hampton enters a loaded backfield but with clear upside. He’s viewed as a future centerpiece in a running game that desperately needed an explosive, downhill presence.
•Chargers’ RB depth and rotation
Chargers’ projected RB room includes Hampton, Najee Harris (signed on a 1-year deal), Hassan Haskins, Kimani Vidal, and Scott Matlock (FB) providing lead-blocker depth. This isn’t a crowded situation—Hampton’s upside and versatility make him a likely early TD threat.
•College résumé speaks volumes
At UNC, Hampton racked up 1,660 rushing yards and 15 rushing TDs in 2024—and posted very similar totals in 2023—with a combined 36 career rushing TDs. He also added 17 total TDs on 319 touches in his final season, showcasing both durability and scoring prowess.
•Fan buzz and confidence
A recent SB Nation Reacts poll showed more than 50% of Chargers fans think Hampton will lead the team in offensive touchdowns in 2025. That’s confidence from the home crowd backing his potential role—especially with veteran Mike Williams unexpectedly retired.
•Touchdown volume looks attainable
A 6.5 threshold is modest for a rookie with goal-line chops, a run-heavy scheme under Jim Harbaugh & Greg Roman, and positional upside. College production, starting potential, and fan expectation all align to make 7 rush TDs a realistic target.
#NFL #Chargers #CZR #PlayerProps
🏈 NFL Futures Bet- Tony S 🏈
Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 900.5 Receiving Yards (-130 ESPN BET)
⸻
Why the Over Is a Smart Play:
1.Odds & Line Awareness
FanDuel has set Marvin Harrison Jr.’s receiving-yards prop at 975.5 yards (-114) but an alternate book offering Over 900.5 at even odds provides more favorable value for bettors looking for a modest benchmark.
2.Building on a Solid Rookie Foundation
In 2024, Harrison caught 62 passes for 885 yards and 8 touchdowns, setting franchise rookie records and displaying real playmaking ability, despite high expectations.
https://t.co/pkFvhJbS3a Share and Role Expansion
Harrison posted 116 targets—highlighting his central role in the offense. He ranked 5th in the NFL for end zone targets and had the 2nd-most deep catches (20+ yards), signaling both trust from Kyler Murray and big-play potential.
4.High Expectations for Year Two
Cardinals insiders and analysts foresee a breakout. Internal optimism is heightened by reports that the team expects Harrison to step up as a primary offensive weapon in 2025.
https://t.co/xYMrDhsLEU Confidence Is Sky High
In a recent SB Nation Reacts poll, 98% of Cardinals fans picked Harrison Jr. or Trey McBride to lead the team in receiving yards— and Harrison Jr. received the majority of those votes.
https://t.co/qo8HzJo8GD QB + Improved Offense = More Passing Volume
The Cardinals continue to feature Kyler Murray, and the offense remains pass-heavy. With Harrison now in his second year and more familiarity with the system, surpassing 900 yards is a realistic mark.
#NFL #Futures #MHJ #Cardinals
⚾️ MLB Play #1 (8/25)
‼️ Collab with @PropKitchen & @Picks_x_Stevie 🔥
Noah Cameron o15.5 Outs (-120 UD) #FountainsUp
Love this spot for Cameron to eat some innings for a team that still has playoff aspirations.
Let Stevie tell you more ⏬
The Royals’ bullpen is taxed due to Seth Lugo struggling against the Tigers on Sunday with six different pitchers playing. The Royals now go into a new series against the White Sox in the middle of a wild card race. This looks to be a great spot for Noah Cameron to deliver an efficient start as he’s done all season to get off on the right foot vs Chicago, a series they should win.
Hes clearly been comfortable away from home this season having covered the over on this line in 88% of starts with an average of 17.6 outs per game compared to 60% in home games with an avg of 16.8.
Cameron has been great in his rookie season posting very good advanced metrics:
• WHIP: 1.07 (84th)
• BAA: .208 (85th)
• ERA: 2.53 (93rd)
• FIP: 3.88 (60th)
In a recent start vs CWS on 8/15 he delivered an efficient showing going 5 1/3 (16 outs) on 79 pitches thrown allowing 1 earned run even though he gave up 6 hits.
Including the August 15th matchup, the last 5 starting LHP have all recorded 16+ outs against the White Sox including most recently Joey Cantillo (17), Tyler Anderson (18) and Jesus Luzardo (21).
Place your trust in Noah who is proven and a key piece in the Royals rotation as they make a push for the postseason.
📊 @OutlierDotBet
#MLB #GamblingX #Underdog
MLB Dish of the Day 🧑🍳
⚾️ Monday Prop #1
🍽️ 𝐍𝐨𝐚𝐡 𝐂𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝟏𝟓.𝟓 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐬 (-135 DK)
Cooked w/ @Picks_X_Stevie and @TonysPickz
❤️ IF TAILING!
• The Royals bullpen was taxed due to Seth Lugo struggling against the Tigers on Sunday with six different pitchers playing. The Royals go into a new series against the White Sox in the middle of a wild card race. This looks to be a great spot for Noah Cameron to deliver an efficient start as he’s done all season to get off on the right foot vs Chicago, a series they should win.
• He’s clearly been comfortable away from home this season having covered the over on this line in 88% of starts with an average of 17.6 outs per game compared to 60% in home games with an avg of 16.8.
• Cameron has been great in his rookie season posting very good advanced metrics:
• WHIP: 1.07 (84th)
• BAA: .208 (85th)
• ERA: 2.53 (93rd)
• FIP: 3.88 (60th)
• In a recent start vs CWS on 8/15 he delivered an efficient showing going 5 1/3 (16 outs) on 79 pitches thrown allowing 1 earned run even though he gave up 6 hits.
• Including the August 15th matchup, the last 5 starting LHP have all recorded 16+ outs against the White Sox including most recently Joey Cantillo (17), Tyler Anderson (18) and Jesus Luzardo (21).
• Place your trust in Noah who is proven and a key piece in the Royals rotation as they make a push for the postseason.
📣 Turn notifications on for the BEST Props served by the BEST Chefs on X!
📊 All Data is powered by @propsdotcash ~ Use Code PK25 for 25% off your first month of subscription!
#GamblingX #PrizePicks #fanduel #MLB
⚾️ MLB PROP TO CONSIDER
🧪W/ @PropKitchen & @TonysPickz
Noah Cameron O15.5 Outs (-135 UD)
#FountainsUp
�� He’s a Road Demon 😈
The Royals bullpen was taxed due to Seth Lugo struggling against the Tigers on Sunday with six different pitchers playing. The Royals go into a new series against the White Sox in the middle of a wild card race. This looks to be a great spot for Noah Cameron to deliver an efficient start as he’s done all season to get off on the right foot vs Chicago, a series they should win.
Hes clearly been comfortable away from home this season having covered the over on this line in 88% of starts with an average of 17.6 outs per game compared to 60% in home games with an avg of 16.8.
Cameron has been great in his rookie season posting very good advanced metrics:
• WHIP: 1.07 (84th)
• BAA: .208 (85th)
• ERA: 2.53 (93rd)
• FIP: 3.88 (60th)
In a recent start vs CWS on 8/15 he delivered an efficient showing going 5 1/3 (16 outs) on 79 pitches thrown allowing 1 earned run even though he gave up 6 hits.
Including the August 15th matchup, the last 5 starting LHP have all recorded 16+ outs against the White Sox including most recently Joey Cantillo (17), Tyler Anderson (18) and Jesus Luzardo (21).
Place your trust in Noah who is proven and a key piece in the Royals rotation as they make a push for the postseason.
Leave a ❤️🔥 if tailing.
📊: @PropsEdge
Hurston Waldrep o16.5 Outs ✅
This was a free play today as Waldrep only needed 77 pitches to pitch 6 innings
He’s pitched a great game to this point
1-0 on the night so far!
#MLB #GamblingX #DraftKings
💰 Streak to $10K 💰
Pick 5/11:
⚾️ Hurston Waldrep 16.5 Outs (Higher) ✅
On to pick 6!
#MLB #GamblingX #Underdog
⚾️ MLB Play #1 (8/21):
Sonny Gray o5.5 Ks (-120 CZR) #ForTheLou
This will likely be a popular play today but for good reason. Gray is over this line in 52% of games this year, averaging 6.2 Ks per game. Sonny has an 81st percentile K rate (26.9%), an 86th percentile chase rate (31.6%), and a 62nd percentile whiff rate (26.6%).
He has finished with at least 5 Ks in 80% of games this year and today gets a very favorable matchup in the Tampa Bay Rays. Over the last month the Rays have struggled mightily against RHP. They rank 29th with a 26.2% K rate against RHP.
The last 3 starting RHP to face the Rays have all finished with 7+ Ks. We expect today to be no different for Sonny here.
📊 @OutlierDotBet
#MLB #GamblingX #Caesars
⚾️ MLB Play #2 (8/21):
Sean Manaea o15.5 Outs (-115 DK) #LGM
This line is moving quick, however I would still play it at 16.5.
Sean has only cleared this line once this season, since making his debut in mid July. Part of this is due to him getting eased back into the rotation and the other part is due to him pitching against some potent offenses lately.
Manaea has been solid in his return posting a 1.16 WHIP. He has a 27% K rate, 5.1% BB rate, and 6.7% Barrel rate, showing he has the capability to limit damage and get through innings quickly.
This play is less about Manaea and more about the matchup for us though. In both games against the Nationals last season Maneae pitched 7 full innings, showing he has had success against them before.
Over the last month the Nationals rank at the bottom of the league in several key metrics against LHP:
• AVG: .195 (30)
• OBP: .246 (30)
• OPS: .568 (30)
• BABIP: .250 (25)
• wRC+: 56.9 (30)
On the season the Nationals have the 7th lowest P/PA at 3.81. They have the highest GB% at 47.1 & the 9th lowest Barrel% at 7.7.
David Peterson just crushed this line against them, finishing with 8 IP. Like this spot for Manaea today to finally see some extending time.
📊 @OutlierDotBet
#MLB #GamblingX #DraftKings
⚾️ MLB Play #3 (8/21):
Justin Verlander u16.5 Outs (-125 HRB) #SFGiants
🗣️ RUN IT BACK
We just played this line and Verlander ended up pitching his best game of the season. What are the odds he does it again.
Verlander has gone under this line in 57% of games this season, however almost half of the times he hit the over came in April. Since May he has gone under in 67% of games and he just went over for the first time in over a month.
On the season Verlander’s numbers have not been great. He has flashed his elite stuff at times but Father Time has been winning this battle for the most part. This season he is posting a:
• WHIP: 1.42 (15th)
• BAA: .273 (15th)
• ERA: 4.23 (40th)
He’s below league average in K%, GB%, and Barrel%, showing he doesn’t have a way to consistently cruise through innings.
Today he will be pitching against the Padres in San Diego. On the season Verlander is averaging just 14.4 outs per game in the road. Over his last 4 games we have seen this average drop to 11.75. The Padres have been a tough lineup for RHP lately so we expect this trend to continue. Over the last month they rank top 7 in several key metrics against RHP:
• AVG: .283 (3)
• OBP: .352 (2)
• OPS: .790 (7)
• BABIP: .331 (1)
• wRC+: 124.7 (5)
Despite having to the bullpen early last night the Giants have 4 guys with at least a day of rest. Like this spot again for the Verlander fade.
📊 @OutlierDotBet
#MLB #GamblingX #HRB #HardRock
⚾️ MLB Play #4 (8/21):
Quinn Priester o16.5 Outs (-120 FD) #ThisIsMyCrew
This isn’t a line that Quinn has crushed by any means this season. He has however gone over in 8/L12 games. There are a lot of reasons to love this play though.
For starters, the Brewers could desperately use some extended time from their starting pitching. This is game 8 of a 19 game stretch for them. In these 8 games they have already played several games that went to extra innings and had a couple games where starters got pulled early. Last night the Miz got pulled after 4 IP.
The Cubs have struggled against RHP lately. Over the last month they interestingly enough rank 28th in AVG, OBP, OPS, BABIP, & wRC+ against RHP. Over the last week they have been even worse:
• AVG: .194
• OBP: .272
• SLG: .283
• OPS: .556
Priester has been solid this season posting a 1.24 WHIP & 3.48 ERA. He has an impressive 96th percentile GB% of 57.5. He also has a 7.3 Barrel%.
Another thing to love about this line if there are projected to be 10 mph winds blowing in from centerfield during the game, helping keep fly balls down. This coupled with Preister’s GB rate should help accumulate outs.
Priester just hit this line against the Cubs at the end of July. We expect him to do it again this afternoon.
📊 @OutlierDotBet
#MLB #GamblingX #FanDuel
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