Tiago Caruso

PhD. Economics, ex-Uber, CEO of Neural Sourcing, building Quant-VC. AI, literature and elephants enthusiast.

[Tiago Caruso @TiagoCaruso]

The #Quant revolution is coming to #VentureCapital.

[Santos da Opressão @SantosOpressivo]

@marcosd78511370 Imagina você chegar com 17 anos em um final de Copa do Mundo e fazer isso aqui

[Pátria das chuteiras @Friedenreich__]

Atualizado

Pelé 🇧🇷👑👽 x Messi 🇦🇷
em Copas do mundo

Pelé x Messi

Em copa do mundo
Gols + assistências/jogos
Pelé - 12 gols +10 assistências em 14 jogos -
G+A - 22 (1,57)
Messi - 16 gols, 8 assistências em 27 jogos
G+A - 24 (0,88)

Médias em Copas do mundo

Pelé
Gols - 0,85
Assists-0,71
G+A = 22
G+A/J = 1,57
Títulos- 3/4 - 75%

Messi
Gols- 0,59
Assists - 0,29
G+A= 24
G+A/J= 0,88
Títulos- 1/5 - 20%

Adversários/gols/fase

Pelé 🇧🇷
🇲🇽 1 (Grupo)
🇧🇬 1 (grupo)
🇨🇿 1(grupo)
🇷🇴 2 (grupo)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1 (quartas)
🇫🇷 3 (semifinal)
🇸🇪 2 (final)
🇮🇹 1 (final)

Messi 🇦🇷
🇷🇸 1 (grupo)
🇧🇦 1 (,grupo)
🇮🇷 1 (grupo)
🇳🇬 3(grupos) 1 de falta
🇸🇦 1 (grupo) Pênalti
🇲🇽 1 (grupo)
🇩🇿 3 (grupo)
🇦🇺 1 (Oitavas)
🇳🇱 1 (Quartas) Pênalti
🇭🇷 1 (Semifinal) Pênalti
🇫🇷 2 (Final) 1 de pênalti

Fases decisivas
Pelé 🇧🇷 👑 👽 7 gols
Messi 🇦🇷 2 gols (sem pênaltis roubados)

O mais importante
Pelé 🏆🏆🏆/4 - 75%
Messi 🏆/5 - 20%
E será 16%

#Pelé
#messi

[Yann LeCun @ylecun]

Dario is wrong.
He knows absolutely nothing about the effects of technological revolutions on the labor market.
Don't listen to him, Sam, Yoshua, Geoff, or me on this topic.
Listen to economists who have spent their career studying this, like @Ph_Aghion , @erikbryn , @DAcemogluMIT , @amcafee , @davidautor

[Tiago Caruso @TiagoCaruso]

Here is my bold take. Oscar would have been an NBA all time top 20.

[La Giornata Tipo @parallelecinico]

Vorremmo provare a far capire ai più giovani perché da ieri sera i social sono invasi da post dedicati a Oscar Schmidt. Scegliamo tre aneddoti per farlo:

- Oscar non ha mai giocato in NBA perché rifiutò il contratto proposto dai Nets. Nel 1984 gli stranieri in NBA praticamente non esistevano. Oltretutto vigeva una regola per cui ai giocatori NBA era vietato giocare per la propria Nazionale. Oscar non andó mai in NBA perché non avrebbe mai rinunciato al Brasile
- È anche grazie a Oscar se nel 1989 venne eliminato questo divieto. Nel 1987 ai giochi panamericani, il Brasile sconfisse in finale gli USA (senza giocatori NBA) e Oscar segnó 46 punti. Per gli USA quella sconfitta fu una “vergogna” (vincevano sempre loro) e nel giro di poco tempo iniziarono a convocare i giocatori NBA in Nazionale arrivando poi a formare il Dream Team nel 1992
- questa è la classifica del record di punti segnati da un giocatore alle Olimpiadi: 55 punti Oscar, 48 Doncic, 46 Palubinskas, 46 Oscar, 46 Oscar, 45 Oscar, 44 Oscar, 44 Oscar, 44 Oscar.
E il record di punti segnati ad un Mondiale? Facile, Oscar 52 punti.

Ieri sera ci ha lasciato la più impressionante macchina da canestri della storia.

[La Giornata Tipo @parallelecinico]

Vorremmo provare a far capire ai più giovani perché da ieri sera i social sono invasi da post dedicati a Oscar Schmidt. Scegliamo tre aneddoti per farlo:

- Oscar non ha mai giocato in NBA perché rifiutò il contratto proposto dai Nets. Nel 1984 gli stranieri in NBA praticamente non esistevano. Oltretutto vigeva una regola per cui ai giocatori NBA era vietato giocare per la propria Nazionale. Oscar non andó mai in NBA perché non avrebbe mai rinunciato al Brasile
- È anche grazie a Oscar se nel 1989 venne eliminato questo divieto. Nel 1987 ai giochi panamericani, il Brasile sconfisse in finale gli USA (senza giocatori NBA) e Oscar segnó 46 punti. Per gli USA quella sconfitta fu una “vergogna” (vincevano sempre loro) e nel giro di poco tempo iniziarono a convocare i giocatori NBA in Nazionale arrivando poi a formare il Dream Team nel 1992
- questa è la classifica del record di punti segnati da un giocatore alle Olimpiadi: 55 punti Oscar, 48 Doncic, 46 Palubinskas, 46 Oscar, 46 Oscar, 45 Oscar, 44 Oscar, 44 Oscar, 44 Oscar.
E il record di punti segnati ad un Mondiale? Facile, Oscar 52 punti.

Ieri sera ci ha lasciato la più impressionante macchina da canestri della storia.

[Rand Paul @RandPaul]

Here is my message to every college student in America: Read books. Be well-informed. Be optimistic.

AI will not destroy your future. In fact, every innovation in history has made us better off. This will too.

[Austin Justice @AustinJustice]

San Francisco is now a model for how to fight crime.

A few years ago it averaged 86 car break-ins per day. Today: 15.

SF did two things:

1. Got a DA that prosecutes criminals: Following the successful recall of Chesa Boudin, DA Brooke Jenkins started prosecuting prolific offenders and said so loudly. Crime dropped every year since she took office.

2. Put tech to use: In 2024, SF activated 400 license plate readers and deployed 80 drones citywide. This tech feeds officers live intelligence on suspects in motion. Drones alone have assisted in 1,000+ arrests since then. The technology lets authorities solve crimes as they happen rather than depend on much more intensive, legally perilous post hoc investigations (which ironically are often more intrusive than using tech).

The results:

- Car break-ins down 85%
- Robbery down 30%
- Burglary down 33%.
- Homicides hit their lowest level since 1954.

Plate readers, drones, a prosecutor who prosecutes. That's the whole formula!

Austin has the opposite approach. License plate cameras are effectively banned. Jail bookings are down despite repeat offenders victimizing innocent people regularly. Bond violations went from 37 in 2020 to 250 last year.

SF proved crime is a choice. Austin, so far, keeps making a different one.

[David Sinclair @davidasinclair]

We’re in it. All proceeds go to medical research🔬🚀

[Tiago Caruso @TiagoCaruso]

There is a big gap in perception between how the market perceives Milei's government and how he is perceived in Brazil. We need a more data based approach.

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

His government rightly highlights solid growth. After shrinking in 2024, last year GDP grew by 4.4%. This year, the forecast is 4%. Yet recovery is uneven https://t.co/k0VMDk9SBy

[Financial Times @FT]

The arrests mark a significant escalation in a probe of suspected fraud and money laundering at Banco Master, which collapsed last year with estimated losses of more than R$40bn, in Brazil’s biggest banking failure in a generation. https://t.co/4qZKIzBDOR

[Tiago Caruso @TiagoCaruso]

@credistick @garrytan I am not just writing this without experience. I have trained and sold models to find good founders in YC batch and VCs have used to deploy capital.
Check this post.
https://t.co/ILp7NwBmUY

[Tiago Caruso @TiagoCaruso]

@credistick @garrytan Here are some issues:
1) 2200 observations are too few to reach a conclusion.
2) OLS is rarely the best predictor model. Most Kaggle winners in structural data use some tree-based models.
3) FAANG background is just one simplistic view of founders' background.

[Paul Graham @paulg]

When you're deciding what to study in college, don't try to predict what will be valuable in the future, because that's so hard that you'll probably get it wrong. Instead focus on what you personally find most exciting. You can't get that wrong.

[Alex Veremeyenko @alex_verem]

🚨 Google just proved that longer chain-of-thought makes AI models LESS accurate, not more.

raw token count has a negative correlation (r = -0.59) with getting the right answer. the more a model talks, the more likely it's wrong.

but they found something better. a way to measure real reasoning effort by looking inside the model's layers.

here's what they discovered:

[Tiago Caruso @TiagoCaruso]

@theallinpod Friedberg is unknowingly echoing Marx’s overproduction crisis theory—capitalism implodes from too much stuff, too little purchasing power.

Yet here we are, 150+ years later, society did not collapse, we thrived . History rhymes, but doesn’t always repeat

[Tiago Caruso @TiagoCaruso]

AI has saved US economy and it happens in SF.

[Rohin Dhar @rohindhar]

Rents on a two bedroom apartment in San Francisco are up 21.3% this year

[Garry Tan @garrytan]

Jevon's Paradox!

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Unless pensions are reformed, the market will never trust Brazilian fiscal rectitude. That distrust is costing Brazil between half and one percentage point of GDP growth annually https://t.co/e6uGmvPnYf

[Tiago Caruso @TiagoCaruso]

@stats_feed Their taxes