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"Every strike brings me closer to the next home run." - Babe Ruth
Charlotte, NC
Joined June 2011
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Pasquantino ✅
Mayo ✅
Rice ❌
Trout ⏳
Through the Stratosphere needs one swing.
Trout goes deep, it's +61u.
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Spencer Jones. 💥
Defying Gravity
✅ Eldridge +613
✅ Torkelson +500
✅ Jones +423
❌ Suárez
Three of four. +81u on a 2.75u round robin.
It was on the board before first pitch. Free.
Meanwhile, on another slip tonight 👀
Defying Gravity
✅ Eldridge +613, 1st inning
✅ Torkelson +500, 4th inning
😤 Spencer Jones just missed one
⏳ Suárez still up
Two down and it's already paying. Jones or Suárez gets there and it's a different night.
Four legs. One of them won't make it.
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TUESDAY HOME RUN BOARD 💣
Three crowns in the Yankees lineup tonight. Not one of them is Aaron Judge.
Ben Rice. Spencer Jones. Luis Garcia Jr. 👀
62 names. 20 favorites. 5 VALUE tags. And the board tells you exactly what it doesn't know yet: 23 of 30 lineups posted, seven pending, and James Wood and CJ Abrams already marked OUT for Washington.
The crown means we like them to go deep. VALUE means the price is longer than our number says it should be. Nimmo at the bottom of the Rangers card is the longest one on the board.
👉 PICK ONE. Who's leaving the yard? 👇
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Jacob deGrom against a guy with a 1.76 WHIP.
We took it at -106 this afternoon. It's -123 now. 👇
Three plays tonight ⚾
TEXAS RANGERS (vs Red Sox, 8:05)
BIGGEST EDGE ON THE CARD, and the market agrees with us.
Patrick Sandoval has walked 27 hitters in 55 innings. Nearly two baserunners every frame. Worst WHIP of any starter we've faced this month.
deGrom: 186 strikeouts, 38 walks, 1.08 WHIP. Four of his last five were zero or two earned runs. One blowup in there, because he's 38 and they happen.
Boston doesn't hit righties. 16 percent worse than an average offense. Story is 56 percent worse than an average hitter against them. Duran 39 percent worse. Against deGrom that's a lot of easy outs.
We took -106 at noon. It's -123. Whoever's moving that number sees what we see, and nobody can get our price anymore.
Honest: Boston's the better team by eight games with an excellent pen. And a number this big is still a strong lean, not a lock. The last edge this size lost.
CHICAGO CUBS (vs Braves, 7:40)
Won this side last night. Back again.
The Cubs against lefties are the best lineup playing tonight. 24 percent better than average. Suzuki 32 percent better than an average hitter, Crow-Armstrong 31, Kelly 35.
Martín Pérez has a 3.08 ERA and walks nearly four per nine. He just threw seven shutout innings, so we're not calling him bad. We're saying the walks catch up against this lineup.
Atlanta is 17 percent WORSE than average against righties. Gausman has 171 strikeouts in 166 innings. His last start was rough, 6 earned in 4, but the strikeouts are real.
Honest: the Cubs bullpen has ONE fresh arm. Atlanta has six. If this is close in the 7th, the edge flips.
⚾ SAN DIEGO TEAM TOTAL UNDER 6.5 (at Coors, 8:40)
Under at Coors again. Hear us out again.
San Diego has to score SEVEN. That's a lot anywhere. Cronenworth is 56 percent worse than an average hitter against lefties, Merrill 30 percent worse, Machado 15 percent worse. They're seeing a lefty.
Wind blowing IN at 10 mph. Coors with the wind in is still Coors, but it's not the launching pad the number is priced for.
And Kyle Freeland, for all the ugly season numbers, has three one-run starts in his last five including a nine inning gem. He's been better than his ERA lately.
Honest: it's Coors, the Colorado pen is bad, and this same leg lost last night. Thinnest play we've got. 🧠
👉 Under at Coors two nights in a row after it lost. Stubborn or right? 👇
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We took Under 10 in the Mariners/A's game overnight.
The market has since moved to 9.
We're holding a number nobody else can get. 👇
Five afternoon plays, one tonight ⚾
⚾ MARINERS/A'S UNDER 10 (4:05)
Here's why that matters. Every game that lands on exactly 9 pushes at today's price and WINS at ours. Exactly 10 refunds us. That's a full run of cushion the rest of the board doesn't have. 🧠
Bryce Miller has the best strikeout to walk rate of any starter on the card. Wind is blowing IN at 8 mph. 76 degrees, not the 90s.
Honest: Miller's results have been ugly lately, 5, 5, 6, 1, 4 earned. And Jacob Lopez walks everybody. This is a price play with a free run attached, not a pitchers' duel.
⚾ ATLANTA BRAVES (vs Phillies, 1:35)
BIGGEST EDGE ON THE CARD.
Andrew Painter has given up 19 HOME RUNS in 110 innings. Nearly two a game. His last five: 5, 1, 3, 0, 5 earned. The bad days are very bad.
Atlanta's heart of the order eats righties. Olson 42 percent better than an average hitter, Michael Harris 37, Acuña 24. And Grant Holmes has thrown shutout ball in three of his last five, including his last one. 💰
Atlanta's pen is 24 percent better than average with twice the fresh arms Philly has.
Honest: Philly's lineup is better than Atlanta's. Harper 58 percent better than average, Schwarber 54. This is the pitching matchup and the bullpen, not the bats.
⚾ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (vs Angels, 1:35)
Third straight day on this side. 2-0 so far.
Grayson Rodriguez: 6.28 ERA. 1.57 WHIP. 37 walks in 82 innings. 14 homers. Worst starter on the board by every measure.
James Wood is 60 percent better than an average hitter against righties. CJ Abrams 35 percent better. Against a guy who can't find the zone, at home, against a team that's lost 92 games.
Honest and it's a real one: Washington is starting Riley Cornelio, who has ONE career start and walks seven and a half per nine. Bad starter against a worse one. We're on the better lineup and the worse opponent. 🧠
⚾ MIAMI TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 (vs Dodgers, 1:40)
Miami just needs FOUR.
Emmet Sheehan has allowed 21 home runs in 101 innings. Nearly two per nine. His last five: 2, 6, 1, 5, 1.
Otto Lopez is 37 percent better than an average hitter against righties, Stowers 25, Conine 22. Four runs is one inning from that group.
The Dodgers can win 9-4 and this cashes. 🎯
Honest: the Dodgers pen is elite and loanDepot kills homers. It has to happen against Sheehan.
⚾ MILWAUKEE TEAM TOTAL UNDER 4.5 (vs Reds, 2:10)
The hard sell, and we're selling the pitcher.
Chase Burns is the best arm on the board today. 2.73 ERA over 148 innings. 176 strikeouts. Two or fewer earned in four of his last five, two shutouts in there.
Milwaukee has to score FIVE. Burns goes six. That leaves three innings to find five runs. 💰
Honest, and it's a big one: Milwaukee is 93-56 and their lineup is elite against righties. Seven above-average bats. And the Reds bullpen has ZERO fresh arms. Whatever Burns leaves behind goes to tired relievers against the best team in the league. This is Burns or nothing.
📊 55-41, +7.78 units across 96 graded plays.
One more tonight, and it's all about the wind. 👀
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Doors closed on Escape Velocity.
+510 was a Ray. +619 bats leadoff. +500 is a former MVP.
Names go up when the last one swings.
Two of three went deep last night. The slip still paid 5 to 1.
Today's board: 6 moonshots open. One pays 95 to 1.
We blacked out the names. Not the prices.
Doors close 4:05 ET.
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SATURDAY HOME RUN BOARD 💣
THREE crowns in the Subway Series. Soto. Judge. Ben Rice. 👀
Fifteen games, thirteen on the card. The two that aren't say so right on the board. We don't guess at a starter, we wait for him.
Also crowned: Tatis, Merrill, Yordan, Caminero, Seager, Cal Raleigh, Murakami, Oneil Cruz.
The crown means our model likes them more than the market does today.
👉 PICK ONE. Who's going deep? Come back tonight 👇
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Saturday CFB. FOUR plays. 👇
🏈 GEORGIA -39.5 vs Western Kentucky (12:45)
Georgia's offense stays on schedule. Their plays actually work on about 56 percent of snaps against Western Kentucky's 32. And they hit a big play on nearly 16 percent of snaps against WKU's 6.
Sustained drives plus explosive plays equals a lot of touchdowns. We make it Georgia by 41.
Honest part: winning big and covering FORTY is not the same job. Our number is 41, not 50. The cushion is small and the line has already crept to 40.5. We're on 39.5. 🧠
🏈 UTSA +2.5 at Texas State (3:30)
Getting points with a team we make a slight FAVORITE.
These two offenses are basically even. UTSA's plays work on 44.5 percent of snaps, Texas State's on 44.2. UTSA has the small edge in big plays too. Nothing here says UTSA is the worse side.
We're not calling an outright win. Our power rating still leans Texas State by a hair. But a one or two point loss cashes at +2.5, and every rating check we run says take the points. 💰
What beats us: protection breaking down in front of McCown.
🏈 TULANE -9.5 vs South Alabama (7:00)
We make Tulane by 12.5. Our internal number says 16, the outside rating says 11.6. Both land well past 9.5.
Semonza is the announced starter at quarterback, and the backfield is still sorting itself out after McClure's uncertainty. Tulane needs sustained possessions to build that separation.
Straight with you: this one carries more uncertainty than the number suggests. New quarterback, a running back rotation still settling, and our rating may not fully reflect what Tulane looks like right now. We're on it. We're not pretending it's clean. 🧠
🏈 SAN DIEGO STATE +13.5 at UCLA (7:15)
Line moved our way. We published +12.5, it's 13.5 now. Take the extra point.
This is NOT a bet that SDSU has the better offense. UCLA does. It's a bet that the game is way closer than two touchdowns.
Our three rating checks range from UCLA by 1.5 to UCLA by 6. Blend it and we make UCLA a 5 point favorite. The number is 13.5. Eight points of room. 💰
SDSU's defense is the reason. They limit the plays that work and the plays that go for chunks. Make UCLA earn it. SDSU doesn't need to win.
Iamaleava is expected to play, so this isn't a bet against a backup. Full strength UCLA and we still think 13.5 is too many.
Every one posted before kickoff. Every one graded tomorrow. 📊
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Three teams today are starting a guy who isn't a starter.
We're on the other side of all three. 👇
CHICAGO CUBS (vs Pirates, 2:20)
Clay Holmes, four of his last five starts: 0, 1, 0, 0 earned runs. Five home runs allowed ALL YEAR in 86 innings.
Then his last one: 8 earned in 4.1. We're not going to pretend that didn't happen. One bad night after four brilliant ones.
The real play is the lineup. Cubs are 13 percent better than an average offense against righties, the best group playing today. Pete Crow-Armstrong is 59 percent better than an average hitter. Wind blowing out at Wrigley, 86 degrees. 💰
Honest: Skenes is the better arm. We know. This is the bats and the park against a pitcher who's human, not the pitching matchup.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (vs Baltimore, 3:07)
Even money on this and the market has it a coin flip. We don't.
Kyle Bradish has walked FOUR men per nine innings and carries the worst WHIP of any starter on today's board. He gave up seven earned in one of his last five. Free baserunners all afternoon.
And behind whoever pitches for Toronto is a bullpen that's been 30 percent better than average. That pen is the play.
Straight up: Toronto's starter is a swingman with six starts and they haven't gone well. We're betting the pen and Bradish's control, not our guy. 🎯
WASHINGTON NATIONALS (vs Angels, 4:05)
Same team we beat yesterday, and today it's cheaper.
The Angels are 16 percent worse than an average offense against lefties. Worst split on the board. Behind Trout and Neto it's a wasteland: Lowe 51 percent worse than average, Frazier 34 percent worse, Moore 84 percent worse.
Andrew Alvarez is a lefty. Three earned or fewer in EVERY one of his last five. Five home runs all season.
The Angels arm is actually good, 2.74 ERA, but he walks four and a half per nine, and James Wood is 60 percent better than an average hitter against righties waiting for that.
MINNESOTA TWINS (vs Cleveland, 4:10)
Cleveland is starting a reliever. Daniel Espino has NINE appearances and ZERO starts this year. Ten innings total. This is a bullpen game from pitch one.
Minnesota is 17 percent better than average against righties. Ryan Jeffers is 68 percent better than an average hitter against them. Wind blowing out 13 mph at Target Field.
Honest part: our starter has a 5.25 ERA and Cleveland's bullpen is elite. If Prielipp hands it away early, we're in trouble. Thinnest of the four.
Three more tonight including our biggest edge of the day 👀
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Cade Cavalli's last five starts: 0 earned runs, 0, 2, 0, 2.
THREE shutout outings in five.
Tonight he faces the worst team in baseball. 👇
⚾ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (vs Angels, 6:45)
Cavalli is the best starter on the entire board tonight and it isn't close.
30 starts. 158 innings. A 3.12 ERA that's 25 percent better than an average starter. 185 strikeouts. And he's been getting BETTER as the season goes.
The Angels are 56-90. Behind Mike Trout and Meckler that lineup falls off a cliff. Their number nine hitter has been 85 percent worse than an average bat. That's not a typo.
Other side: Yusei Kikuchi. 4.96 ERA. 1.47 WHIP. His last five starts read 5, 0, 5, 2, 0 earned runs. You genuinely don't know which guy shows up.
And Washington hits lefties. James Wood 35 percent better than an average hitter against them, CJ Abrams 25 percent better.
Honest part: the Angels have the better bullpen, and this is the steepest price we've paid all week. Modest edge on a big favorite. Still the best arm on the board against the worst team in the sport.
⚾ MARINERS/A'S GAME TOTAL UNDER 10 (9:40)
Read the number first. TEN.
Not 9.5. Not 10.5. Exactly ten. And if this game lands on exactly ten runs, you get your money back. Push, not a loss.
Now here's what we are NOT telling you: that this is going to be a pitchers' duel. It isn't. Jeffrey Springs has given up 33 homers in 130 innings. Sutter Health Park plays hot. Both bullpens are shaky.
The market knows all of that. That's WHY the number is ten. Our projection says 9.6 in the same conditions.
This is a price play. Ten is a lot of runs, the number's about half a run too high, and a whole number line gives us a free out. That's the entire bet.
George Kirby is the steadying arm here. 27 starts, 159 innings, and the A's lineup thins out fast behind Gelof and Cortes.
👉 Under 10 in a hitter's park with Springs on the mound. Tell me why I'm wrong 👇
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Friday's board is live.
8 moonshots tonight. One of them pays 405-to-1.
The names are inside.
Doors close at 6:40 ET.
Yesterday: five games, four aces, zero plays.
Tonight: FIFTEEN games. ☕️🔥
Let's go. 👇
⚾ MLB TONIGHT
Full slate is back and it's loaded.
Mets at Yankees, 7:05. SUBWAY SERIES. Rodón on the mound in the Bronx. 🗽
Phillies at Braves, 7:15. Nola vs Chris Sale. Two guys who've been in this fight for a decade.
Max Scherzer pitching for Toronto against Baltimore. Still doing it. 🧓
Dodgers at Marlins. Astros at Rays. Padres at Giants late.
Fifteen games means fifteen chances for the market to miss something. Yesterday there was nothing to find. Tonight there will be. Card drops this afternoon. 📊
🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL TONIGHT
One game that matters: MISSOURI at KANSAS. 8pm. The Border War. 🔥
Mizzou laying 5.5, total 51.5. Rivalry game, Friday night, road favorite in a hostile building. That is exactly the kind of number worth running.
Then Saturday is the big one. Ohio State at Texas. Oklahoma at Michigan. Alabama at Kentucky. Full weekend preview coming.
Everything posted before first pitch. Everything graded after. Same as always.
Which MLB game tonight has a number that looks wrong to you?
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