🍃峰 🦸🧘‍

自由分析，言论只是记录日记和聊天工具用，不构成交易或投资建议，就是为了好玩！ 🌍时刻保持学习与好奇心！🐯架构师INTJ-A🎮🎿🤿🏃⛺️「书籍📚」「VIBE」La resistencia

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

观察：所以预测2027年12月份之前也许会出现一次大幅度下降（黑天鹅事件）！

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

从对比图可以清晰看出2006触及顶峰之后的风险资产表现出现明显的下降趋势，在整体的趋势下降周期出现黑天鹅事件2007年9月出现转折点最终在2008年11月份找到局部低点走出转折在2009年9月走出趋势逆转并伴随风险资产一步升高持续1610天的大趋势！

[Bernt Bornich @BerntBornich]

Introducing NEO’s 25 Degrees of Freedom, tendon-driven hands — nearing or surpassing human-level dexterity, strength, speed, and reliability.

For seventy years, robotics worked around the hand problem. The humanoid bet is the reverse: it lives or dies at the fingertips.

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

🤪

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Foreign debt demand is no longer keeping up with America's growing debt:

Foreign official holdings of US Treasuries are down to 12.5% of total Treasuries outstanding, the lowest this century.

This percentage has declined -24 points since the 2009 peak.

Over this period, marketable US Treasury debt has surged +$23 trillion, or +379%, to $29.1 trillion, near an all-time high.

At the same time, US Treasuries held by foreign government entities have increased by just +$1.5 trillion, or +63%, to ~$3.9 trillion.

China's Treasury holdings have more than halved, to $651.1 billion, the lowest since September 2008.

The US is issuing record levels of debt.

[Yuto 🇯🇵 @yutokanzakireal]

日本銀行が準備している措置は、数十億の人々の生活に影響を与えるでしょう。

西側諸国の皆様、深くお詫び申し上げます。

これは個人的な問題ではありません。

神のご加護がありますように。

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

在对的周期做对的事情，TQQQ和QQQ的使用在交替资金利用率安全底部的情况下启用TQQQ获得超额收益在泡沫其降杠杆在长期趋势中使用QQQ来追加长期仓位较为合理！对于货币每年膨胀7%左右来推演，合理使用倍投法也可以！

[Asa @app_sail]

https://t.co/CDD9AmB3Pn

[Curiosity @CuriosityonX]

🚨: The Trump administration fired the scientists who ran the government’s climate website, then shut the site down. The scientists just rebuilt it with their own money and put it back online.

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

🤪

[余烬 @EmberCN]

嘿，有意思哈。一个人花 $440 万买了够治理投票通过阈值的 solana:DezXAZ8z7PnrnRJjz3wXBoRgixCa6xjnB7YaB1pPB263 代币，然后发起治理攻击提案并投票，把 @bonk_inu 财库里价值 $2120 万的 $BONK 给掏走了😂

具体情况👇

1⃣先发起治理提案：他 6/30 先在治理平台上发起提案，内容是把财库里 4.426 万亿枚 $BONK ($2120 万) 转到他控制的 9bxW...JHvQ 钱包。
治理提案：https://t.co/qPkoMan9xl

2⃣买币投票：提案通过需要最低 1% 代币即 8799.5 亿枚 BONK 投赞成票。所以他在过去 2 天时间里一共从 Binance 跟 Bybit 提了满足最低票数要求的 BONK (8822.85 亿枚，价值 $440 万) 到链上，对这个提案投了赞成票，满足了提案通过要求。
地址：https://t.co/H420s1E2PN

3⃣掏空财库：提案在昨天下午满足通过条件后被自动执行，财库里 4.426 万亿枚 $BONK ($2120 万) 被执行转移到他控制的 9bxW...JHvQ 钱包。
地址：https://t.co/dWOo8wVGg0

4⃣转入交易所：成功从财库掏出 BONK 后，他把其中 400 亿枚 BONK ($19 万) 转进了 OKX 交易所，另外 4.386 万枚 BONK ($1864 万) 则转到了 EXaJ...eh42 地址。
地址：https://t.co/dWOo8wVGg0

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#Bitget 来了就是VIP！Crypto、美股、CFD，全球先机一站布局

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

10Y收缩在163？临界150会重点关注重要事件触发！日元套利的风险在增加！

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

封面解读最有意思，蓝色背景隐喻政治背景和派别，烟雾大于火焰说明影响力在扩大或者传染较大，而火柴位于中间位置着火的像是老川上层有上百根火柴环绕说明一触即发的事件（政治机制、经济机制、内部冲突、债务螺旋）？

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

America is awesomely powerful—but its 250th birthday comes at an anxious moment in its history: https://t.co/uuwrMzWQAI

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

Morgan Stanley: Robotics

> Humanoid robots represent the largest embodied AI opportunity, with a projected global total addressable market (TAM) of US$7.5 trillion by 2050, accumulating an estimated global stock of 1 billion robots.

> While the industry is in its infancy, Morgan Stanley forecasts that small-scale commercialization and pilot deployments will begin this year (2026).

> The global humanoid component market is projected to reach a TAM of US$780 billion by 2040. Key hardware components are expected to see massive demand multipliers by 2050 compared to 2025 levels, led by Edge Compute (1,904x), Bearings (370x), Motors (170x), and Reducers (157x).

> Shipment Forecasts: China’s humanoid shipments are expected to grow at an 85% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, rising from 12k units to 262k units.

> Cost Advantage: China possesses a significant Bill of Materials (BoM) cost advantage over non-China supply chains. Survey data reveals that potential adopters view a price range of US$14k–$28k (Rmb100k–199k) per unit as the sweet spot for broad adoption (with products like the Unitree G1 already selling at US$16k).

> Government Support: Government guidance funds for robotics exceed Rmb187 billion (~US$27 billion). Local governments are heavily subsidizing the ecosystem and actively creating early orders via "data collection centers".

> In 2025, China's humanoid shipment mix was heavily dominated by R&D/Education (42%), followed by Data Collection (19%), Interaction (19%), and Entertainment (16%).

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

China's Real Estate Market has erased all gains from the last 20 years

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

🤪

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: 1 in 3 men aged 20+ are neither working nor looking for a job in the US

[Tomas Salvo @tomas_salvo22]

Since February, I've designed and built the world's fastest RC airplane in my college dorm, and that’s not clickbait. Reaper has a 5kg carbon-fiber frame, 250N turbojet, and flies at 500mph. New to X and will be going through the whole build here in the coming days.

#aerospace

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

@bluemoccc @Donald20251 @longhao198 看看反弹效果

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

设置目前5.9-7.5-4.9！

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

关注5.9这个位置，空头在这个月末不发力的话，考虑多头设置！

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

@Donald20251 @longhao198 不是说他的流量和流动性说的是操纵爆仓这百十亿美金，目前还没恢复，稳定币也在加速撤离！

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

@longhao198 资金面不支持，流动性太弱了，币安去年10月份操纵的流动性到现在都没恢复，看看

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

月度收线，这个位置很不错接下来几个月黄金会有不错的表现——如果跌破3.9会进一步缩小敞口！

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

如果黄金在这个位置找到短期底部也是一个不错的入场点位，如果跌破考虑观察！

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

😌

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Debt

U.S. Debt now exceeds 100% of GDP for the first time since World War 2 🤯👀

[🍃峰 🦸🧘‍ @Tim20221314]

SNDK 策略看7月份压力很大