Timbo

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@ClaudeDevs @claudeai Damn. It was so good.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@StockMKTNewz @WOLF_TradingX Quadrillion

[Emmet Peppers @EmmetPeppers]

@AlbertBridgeCap Hey Drew, stocks are forward looking as you know...curious, it must be tempting for you to short it...might you short it when shares become available to short?

[Rob Maurer @robmaurer]

The metric I keep coming back to for SpaceX is $/Mbps to orbit

Starlink exists because Falcon 9 dropped bandwidth deployment costs ~10x to ~$6.55/Mbps. That’s about to drop again to just $0.30/Mbps because of Starship.

A business that is doubling users annually with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin is about to cut their biggest cost by 95%… It really seems like people don't understand the implications of this.

The math assumes a reusable Falcon 9 launch is 17 tonnes at $1,000/kg and 2,600 Gbps per launch. Starship is targeting 100 tonnes at under $185/kg and 61,000 Gbps per launch. That's $17M for 2,600 Gbps ($6.55/Mbps) verse $18.5M for 61,000 Gbps ($0.30/Mbps).

Starship's additional volume allows for larger satellites, enabling simultaneous gains on multiple cost curves. The math suggests V3 satellites are ~600 Mbps/kg vs ~150 Mbps/kg from V2 mini.

Combining the 4x improvement on satellite bandwidth density with a 5x improvement in launch gets you the 20x improvement to 30 cents per Mbps to orbit.

These are fairly conservative assumptions because launch probably comes in even lower as Starship ramps, and satellite improvements probably keep coming. At $0.10 / Mbps, $1 billion spend on launch represents 10,000 Tbps or about 15x the bandwidth of Starlink's constellation today.

$1B is 90 days of operating income for Starlink... at it's current scale...

Yeah, I really don't think people are getting this. Starlink is the internet now.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@TeslaAUNZ @tomzhu_nz Make is in the USA. We want it.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@Tslachan It really has.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@wholemars @mweinbach Not yet. Still the alpha build.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@DavidMoss @wholemars Hard to see how it could get that much better. It’s already so good. It’s onto solving parking and nav. We’re almost full unsupervised.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@jessegenet @Tesla Welcome to the club.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@EmmetPeppers The Anthropic cfo interview was equally good. Also worth a listen. https://t.co/XiSJxkZTwV

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@EmmetPeppers https://t.co/aPtirdlfX0

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@EmmetPeppers Worth a listen.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

Definitely one of the possibilities and you’re right about Mythos. Your point has me thinking a littler deeper and I think it could come down to the way each company handles it. Did you hear the open ai CFO interview on the all in pod? She basically said they want to give access to all. Democratize intelligence.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@DoctorJack16 Or he’s just getting old.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@armstrong_jackk Agreed.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@gianna_auer_ @RamP IPO please

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@jarvis_best Plus hot dogs and beef sandwiches.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@wholemars I’m going for 100k and whatever I don’t get I’ll put in a market order and close that account and never look again.

[Timbo @TimDodaro2]

@robmaurer We need more Rob Maurer