EEM traders are chasing one of the biggest FOMO spikes in history.
"Sell USD / Buy EM" are among the top consensus trades for 2023 – no one sees downside risks.
Many other years began with similar euphoria.
Things didn't go well.
Beware consensus trades.
Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 4.4% at End of 2022
Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 5.1% at End of 2023
Fed Officials Lower 2023 Growth Forecast to 0.5% From 1.2%
Another blowout consumer credit report for Oct (+$27 bn). Year to date, credit card balances soared $130 bn, double all of 2021. The surge financed ~1/3rd of spending this year; throws cold water on the view that balance sheets are in fine shape and replete with “excess savings.”
@GameofTrades_ And today every P/C ratio dropping by 20-50% of those levels.
You should know the environment you are in markets before making assumptions on P/C ratios
@JarmoFriman Näitä on aina mielenkiintoista seurata. Tämäkin trendi on jatkunut jo kolmisen viikkoa eikä pitäisi tulla kellekään yllätyksenä, mutta ei silti ole vaikuttanut (vielä) sentimenttiin.
Jos/kun lasku taas alkaa, nämä otsikot hyvin nopeasti käännetään laskun syyksi