$BTC The same pattern is emerging once again.
Following a strong uptrend, the market enters a prolonged phase of consolidation and reduced volatility. It is a pattern we have already seen in the previous cycle: months of frustrating price action, sentiment at rock bottom, and investors beginning to lose confidence.
It is precisely during these phases that the most significant price movements are built up. The longer the price remains range-bound, the greater the subsequent rally may be. But be careful: this does not mean that every extreme prediction will come true.
Forget about randomly plucked price targets and promises of unrealistic prices. Technical analysis is about assessing probabilities, not putting on a show.
If this pattern were to complete and Bitcoin were to reach a range between 160k and 180k, that would already be an extraordinary result and perfectly consistent with a significant expansion in the cycle.
The key, today, is not to guess the absolute peak. It is to have the patience to weather the market’s most tedious phase without being swayed by the noise.
Major trends almost always emerge when most people have stopped believing in them.
$BTC has been trading inside the same log regression channel since 2017. And there's a rhythm here almost nobody is talking about.
Every bottom prints at the channel bottom:
2018 → channel bottom (−45%)
2020 COVID → channel bottom (−50%)
2022 → channel bottom (−38.06%)
2026 → channel bottom, in play right now (−38.88%)
Four for four. The last two within 1% of each other.
But the tops alternate:
2017 → overshoot ABOVE the channel (+171%)
2019 → contained top, inside the channel
2021 → overshoot ABOVE the channel (+167%)
2024–25 → contained top, inside the channel
Overshoot. Contained. Overshoot. Contained.
The 2024–25 cycle didn't "fail" — it was the contained top in the sequence. Exactly like 2019. And everyone wrote 2019 off too, right before 2021 escaped the channel.
Which means:
If the alternation holds, the next top is the escape. A +160% overshoot above the channel — the same magnitude as 2017 and 2021 — projects into the $400k–680k region into 2027.
And even if that sounds exaggerated: a mere retouch of the channel top from here sends us into the $200k–300k region. That's the conservative case.
We're at the channel bottom. The pattern says accumulate here.
S/O to @lastcoins for bringing this pattern to my notice.
@polaris_xbt@benjamincowen what if nobody cares about altcoins anymore? 0 value 0 interest 0 utility. what if they go to 0? Trump, Melania killed the space forever? interesting
@polaris_xbt Thank you buddy! Happy new year to you! Good content as always. Do you expect any expansion soon on btc? The 90k zone and the 100k looks pretty strong resistance. What if the next pump is just a bearish retest and bleeding continue? What do u think?
$BTC Let’s think about something for a moment.
Why are we suddenly seeing wallets that have been holding BTC for years …bought for just a few dollars …selling right now?
The answer is simple:
they couldn’t do it before. Now they can.
Because today the market has a massive amount of liquidity and volume.
This allows long-term holders to finally take profit efficiently… something that simply wasn’t possible when the market was illiquid.
So don’t interpret these pullbacks as “panic.”
They’re normal profittaking, and for anyone who actually understands the market, they’re opportunities 👉🏻not threats.
Accumulation phases and downtrends work exactly like this:
smart money unloads part of their position, the market resets, and the next cycle builds stronger foundations.
And remember one key point:
those who bought through ETFs at 50k, 70k, 90k, and 100k are not going to sell at a loss at 20k.
These are institutional investors not emotional traders.
If they sell, it will be much, much higher.
From a macro perspective, there’s nothing alarming here:
BTC has every reason to reach 300k–500k in the longer-term future.
Relax, observe, and take advantage of the opportunities the market is giving you.
The cycle isn’t over… it’s just cleansing itself.
When it comes to trading, it’s a completely different story.
Here we operate and think in a totally different way.
Macro gives you the broader direction,
but daily trading requires discipline, confirmations, risk management, and precise PA reading.
Two separate worlds, two very different approaches.
And whoever doesn’t understand that… isn’t really trading.
BREAKING: China is delaying its recent export controls on rare earths to the US by 12 months to "reexamine" the plan, per US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
@eliz883 Since ive been following you, I have learned not to overcomplicate things, to remain patient, consistent, and disciplined. I still have a lot to learn, but I feel that my journey has begun and is already taking me somewhere. The light on this path is provided by people like you
BTC MARKET UPDATE: ARE WE SO BACK 💯
1. Have we found Support or are we still stuck at Resistance?
2. Can we flip $112k?
3. What it could mean for alts if BTC does another Pump.
Youtube link in the Profile.