Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦

Whatever the opposite of 'laser eyes' is...

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

@thebradfordfile Arrests being made on right side of split-screen, left side interview with Zexi Li on CBC News

https://t.co/E4odxQWR3u

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

@thebradfordfile

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

@hkuppy

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

S&P 500's June 2021 peak PE at 30.8 (99th %tile, below Dec 1999's 35.8 an all time record which would put $SPX +5000) such high #valuation corresponds to poor long term returns - a slightly negative 10 year annualized total return!

chart via @LeutholdGroup

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

Jeremy Grantham of GMO recently spoke with @johnauthers on the same topic with less equivocation: "The last 12 months have been a classic finale to an 11-year bull market"

https://t.co/MMAcArohFI

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

ICYMI: Ray Dalio gives a quick overview of his judgement re current #valuation and whether we are in a stock market bubble:

https://t.co/8SOpJ5YaHW

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

NFIB small business #sentiment 99.6 - notice the response regarding expectations of the economy improving in the lower panel

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

"The Cleveland Fed model’s r-squared [based on monthly data back to 2003] was highest at 23%, followed by the University of Michigan consumer survey at 20%, and the five-year breakeven inflation rate at 0%."

https://t.co/lHcdoNZS0Q

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

ICYMI: David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie on the #inflation vs #deflation debate & his recommendation of long 30 year Treasury bond, potential +25% return over 1 year

https://t.co/to85c9BqVY

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

Cleveland Fed #Inflation Expectations Model (1-5 years)

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

#Bitcoin, devoid of any fundamentals & inherent value, is as pure a manifestation of the aggregate financial id as we'll ever encounter: chart of Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite metric compared to the price of Bitcoin (YoY).

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

@f_helou @EconguyRosie You're right, the point Rosenberg is making is that consensus is at an extreme level of crowding and that does typically suggest a contrarian response.

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

GMO cautions re #valuation by comparing EPS vs prices for 1990's market and today's

EPS forecasts are 2-year forecasts. In the first chart, EPS forecasts grew at an annualized rate of 11.1%; in the second chart, EPS forecasts grew at an annualized rate of 6.4%.

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

Investors Intelligence weekly #sentiment survey of newsletters shows little change:

bulls 54.5% (up by almost 0.9% pts from last wk)
bears 16.2% (slight decline of 0.3% pts)
correction 29.3%

chart via @WillieDelwiche

[Babak 🇮🇷 🇺🇦 @TN]

NDR Daily Trading Sentiment 67.8%
NDR Crowd #Sentiment Poll 71.5%

Both are above extreme optimism demarcation lines with negative 1 year fwd expected returns.