The Leuthold Group

Institutional Research & Investment Management

Disclosure: Quasar Distributors, LLC

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

We have been active asset allocators for about four decades. Our outlook is long term, yet we continually evaluate the market's underlying health and make changes as needed.

$LCR Leuthold Core ETF
$LST Select Industries ETF
$LCORX Leuthold Core Fund

https://t.co/60bIrC8f31

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

“Up” vs “down” earnings in "month 1" of Q1 slipped versus Q4’s comparable figure. It’s still strong vs. the LT average, but the current expansion is getting mature. Historically, expecting the run to prolong seems optimistic—lookbacks will get tougher. #Earnings #Markets

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

Over 100 yrs of data, $SPY had its worst returns for the current year’s May-Oct combo of election-year/calendar cycles (+1.9% avg). But, historically, the best 6-mo period begins in Nov (+13.7%). The Nov-Apr span is even better for small caps: +20%-plus from the avg. loss posted May-Oct

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

Friday’s S&P 500 all-time high was a major milestone: 100% gain since the bull’s Oct-22 birth. It is horns, head, and shoulders above all others that followed non-recessionary bear markets. If $SPY rises into mid-June, it will be the longest-lived bull born w/o the “benefit” of recession

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

Leuthold's Greg Swenson talks with @leslienortonnyc @MorningstarInc about stock market strength in the face of Iran conflict. https://t.co/VejM7FwOhN $SPY #IranConflict #MiddleEast

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

The @LeutholdGroup found that in the 15 oil price spikes they identified, only one coincided with a bear market: 2002.

Average return for the S&P 500 across all periods (whilst oil is spiking) is +10% ... March 2026 is marked by the green square.

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

Measured from the first day of a major oil price spike, $SPX forward return for 3-, 6-, and 12-mos are also surprisingly favorable. The 3- and 6-mo periods’ avg. gain was ~1% per month, and an astounding +17.6% over the next year. #Oil $XLE $XOM $CVX $CL_F

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

The @LeutholdGroup found that in the 15 oil price spikes they identified, only one coincided with a bear market: 2002.

Average return for the S&P 500 across all periods (whilst oil is spiking) is +10% ... March 2026 is marked by the green square.

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

Nvidia’s weight in $SPY has slimmed down from a mind-boggling 8.5% to a still incredible 7.32%. Its streak of nine consecutive months with a heft greater than 7% is matched only by $AAPL 's run-up in 2023. $NVDA #Mag7

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

It has been rough sledding for our “4% Club” contingent over the last 4 months. Microsoft lost 24%—a $930 billion plunge in mkt cap (roughly one Berkshire Hathaway or three Coca-Colas). $MSFT ended Feb. w/ an $SPY weight of < 5% for the first time since Jan-2020. $BRK $KO

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

If the #SP500 retreats to a more conventional concentration scheme, it would be a big boost for active investors. Yet, a sharp re-rating of the mega-cap giants, which have generated vast paper wealth and very real spending, could spell disaster for the economy.

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

In Feb. $SPY saw its fourth major dip in concentration since the mega-cap Tech surge began. Yet, the top 5 stocks still account for 28% of the index, while the bottom 300 make up 13%. Before 2020, the bottom 60% typically dominated the top 1%. #StockMarket #Investing #Mag7

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

Small cap underperformance...long and relentless...one of these days gonna be a face ripper!

via @LeutholdGroup

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

As far as railroads and trucking companies, Swenson says they suffer from the fact that “their fundamentals are more impaired and valuations look less attractive.” Based on our quantitatively-driven analysis, "deteriorating profitability and negative earnings revisions” make truckers especially unappealing.

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

Leuthold's Greg Swenson cited by @LaMonicaBuzz @barronsonline “While Transports are often discussed as a single industry, dispersion beneath the surface is elevated.” Dow Transport Index Is Sizzling. Stick With Planes, Not Trucks and Trains. https://t.co/hUgVGTUc93 #paywall (may apply) #DJTransports

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

Leuthold's Greg Swenson cited by @barronsonline “While Transports are often discussed as a single industry, dispersion beneath the surface is elevated.” Dow Transport Index Is Sizzling. Stick With Planes, Not Trucks and Trains. https://t.co/jsUgQNGxCz #paywall may apply

[Money Life Show @MoneyLifeShow]

Chun Wang of @leutholdgroup on why "the biggest risk to the economy is the stock market itself." @ToddRosenbluth of @Vetta_Fi makes $FESM his #ETFoftheWeek; Jonathan Smucker of Marietta Invstmt talks macro-->thematic-->bottoms-up stock investing in the #MoneyLifeMarketCall.

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

As of 4Q25, S&P 500 Normalized Earnings sit in the 10th decile, marking them among the priciest in history, based on figures from 1926 to date and from 1957 forward. Could this indicate a "new era" or is it unsustainable? $SPY #StockMarket #Investing #Valuations

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

Poor results in January from MSFT (-11%), AAPL (-5%), and Broadcom (-4%) dragged down the once bulletproof Top 10.

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

Equal-Wgt $SPY had best month vs S&P 500 Top-10 Index since March 2025. The avg $SPY stock has outdone the Top 10 for 3 mos running (by 8.5%). If this is the start of a fortune reversal for smalls, there is ample runway. Since 12/31/22: S&P 500 Top 10 +186%; EW SPY +48%. $RSP

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

In recent history, only the Russell 2000’s +6% lead over the S&P 500 in Jan. 2021 has been better. Perhaps more notably, this marks only the tenth January win for small caps in the last 25 years.

[The Leuthold Group @LeutholdGroup]

A January small-cap bounce is a well-known market anomaly, but it's been a no-show for most of the last decade. This year, it was in flourishing—until late January, when smalls gave back a large chunk. Still $RUT's +4% advantage over $SPY was its best January since 2023.