ToadSong

I gamble on elections and the words that people say.

[ToadSong @ToadSong_PI]

Just hit half a million in profit on Kalshi. Crazy.

[Tyrael @0xTyrael]

Chris Murphy doesn't know what he's talking about

I am not an insider or have any special knowledge on mention markets and have made over $200k trading them

I do this by studying speech patterns, keeping up on current events, and understanding speech structure/format/context better than others

People have studied speech structure for decades. There are entire college courses on it. Political parties invest millions of dollars on focus groups to understand what speech resonates with people. Political pundits debate them and do analysis on them regularly. It's very important because it's lasering in on the way that politicians communicate with the public. It's more strategic than people think. All mention markets do is allow people to monetize that research and interest.

It's not crazy to think that people can be successful at it if they do the same thing that myself and many others have done.

On another note - if someone is insider trading these events on a regulated exchange, they are subject to fines and prosecution. This is exactly why KYC laws exist. All kinds of financial markets have inside information available that people could act on, it's not exclusive to mention markets and it's just as illegal to manipulate a mention market as any other one.

I'm open to regulating the prediction market industry and I welcome it. But destroying them in the process is not welcome and I reject this overreaching bid to do so.

[ToadSong @ToadSong_PI]

@Domahhhh @PredMTrader Many mention market sharps have repeatedly advocated for clearer rules. If this were easy, it probably would have been solved already. Languages are complicated. One reason the rules are so long is that Kalshi has (with input from traders) gradually improved the rules.

[ToadSong @ToadSong_PI]

@benwfreeman1 NPR also defined a rulescuck as a "someone" even though I've exclusively seen the term used to refer to the way that a contract resolves.

[Benjamin Freeman @benwfreeman1]

NPR just posted their prediction market definitions. Here’s where they went wrong 🧵:

#1 alpha: “making more money than the average trader”

Incorrect. Alpha is information or the different between current value and fair value. This is also a traditional finance term.

#2 “bondsharp”: “Well-known community member who provides liquidity to markets, a market maker. When a market is empty, they are often waiting for a ‘bond’ to show up and provide ‘yes’ and ‘no’ orders.”

No, no, no, and no. First of all, no one really uses this term. Second, traders don’t wait for a “bond” to show up. Bonds are trades where the price is above 90 or 95, and the comparison is to traditional bonds because it’s that sure of a bet. I would presume a “bondsharp” is someone who knows when a bond is a bond vs. is not

#3 MOGGED: “to be strategically outmaneuvered by another trader”

Also incorrect. MOGGED means to be a massive taker on an order book, buying up a bunch of shares to move the price. MOGGERS are willing to eat fees because they are confident (or overconfident)

#4 nuking: “A sudden, massive drop in price or odds of a specific bet”

No. Nuking is synonymous with “full port.” For example, “I’m nuking Maduro to be out by the end of January.”

#5 PMT: “Prediction market trader”

From context, they think a PMT is any trader. Real ones know PMT = @PredMTrader

#6 rug (or rug pull): “An exit scam where someone suddenly disappears with everyone’s money, leaving the market worthless. Can also mean someone has been “rugged” when Kalshi stops trading when that person has a lot of money on the line.”

Most people refer to actual actors in the prediction markets as “rugging” them not Kalshi themselves. For example, Trump changing a speaking event to “closed press” would tank mention market Y shares, and Trump would be seen as “rugging” it

There were some other impressions, but overall it’s a pretty funny image thinking of an NPR journalist trying to do research on this

[ToadSong @ToadSong_PI]

In 2025, I earned $211,000 on Kalshi. Which blows me away.

After my modest success on PredictIt during the 2020 presidential election, I thought that trading elections would be just an intermittent side hustle. I joined Kalshi in October of 2024 and surprised myself by earning $47,000 in the last month of the presidential election.

And in February of 2025, I stumbled upon mention markets. For some reason, I was instantly attracted to them. For the rest of 2025, I traded mention markets on Kalshi while gradually reducing my hours at my full-time job. In December of 2025, I left my job to trade on Kalshi full-time.

Excited for 2026!

[ToadSong @ToadSong_PI]

@GaetenD Sounds like a healthy choice. I've enjoyed reading your posts for the past 6 months or so, but I think a break is well-deserved. I think I'd be burned out if I were you, being so active on Kalshi while also working full-time.

[Domer❤️‍🔥 @Domahhhh]

The previous Trump administration - as far as political prediction markets were concerned - was a maelstrom of chaos. Every day was waking up to a new adventure in trying to predict both policy and personnel. A scandal that lasted a week in 2015 would last maybe 3-4 hours in 2017, immediately overtaken by a newer scandal or a ridiculous tweet.

In his first term, Trump hired and fired a plethora of Cabinet officials (yes, jefe, a plethora). People advertised as "the best", when nominated, ended up as a "disloyal bozo" a few months later. For perspective (and not to say its a better way of doing it!), Biden had only 2 Cabinet members leave, one to run the National Hockey League lol. Conversely, many of Trump's positions turned over multiple times & only five Cabinet members survived through Trump's whole administration -- almost. Two of the five resigned after January 6th.

The previous Trump term ended with not only total insurrectionist calamity in real life, but gigantic prediction market flips -- almost every single hyped and heavily-traded PredictIt market on whether a Senator would object in the January 6th certification flipped and expired to "No" as the Senators were displaced in the chamber by rioting jagoffs. Tuberville, Loeffler, etc. all went from like 97% for Yes to expiring at 0 in the span of a few hours.

All of us traders started the day trying to predict whether Ron Johnson, Tuberville, and a rogue's gallery of Republican Senators would certify the election -- we squinted at the pixels on C-SPAN to see if Senators were huddling up and plotting. But the day unfolded with us watching the same exact chamber (that always looks sleep-inducing) being overrun by hypercaffeinated morons with zip ties looking to kidnap the Vice President. A little surreal!

Now the gang is headed back to town, and after looking relatively calm for a few days - including a few normal personnel picks - the new administration is picking right back up with the calamitous and chaotic bit.

Right out of the gate, multiple of Trump's bizarro Cabinet picks are trading at <80% to be confirmed (Hegseth, Tulsi, and RFK Jr.) -- including easily the worst received nomination in decades: Matt Gaetz. He is sitting at ~40% odds to be made the #1 lawman in the nation.

The vibe of the Gaetz nomination hitting the Senate (if it gets that far) will be less like Robert Downey Jr being politely grilled in Oppenheimer and probably more akin to a prolonged horror like The Exorcist or Oldboy.

It's no secret that prediction markets thrive when Trump is involved - because nobody knows what the hell is coming next. Not even the people who are paid to know what is coming next have much of an idea what is coming next. Cue the spokespeople confidently saying X, only to have Trump tweet out an hour later that anyone who likes X is an idiot and we're doing Y.

If you want a preview of what's MAYBE to come: fluoride being recommended out of the water by the Trump admin is up to 42%. The JFK assassination files being immediately released? Up near 40%. That's in addition to mass deportation (trading at 70% to start on day 1). It's obviously not all negative or wacky news across the board -- crypto is skyrocketing (Trump immediately buying bitcoin with the US Treasury is at 30%) and business owners are probably feeling more optimistic about the decreased regulations of the new regime.

Regardless of whether your own life will be improved or worsened, everyone around the world should be buckling your seat belts and holding onto your butts. The chaos is coming. If you want to have a slightly better clue of what is happening, make sure to peep into the prediction markets over the next 4 years. We're definitely still a bit clueless, but with money on the line, we've got a better grasp of it than every other source.

[Jared Rabel @JradRabel]

My updated electoral map

[christian 🌴 @orchidcaveat]

obligatory

[ToadSong @ToadSong_PI]

@GaetenD Any particular reason why safe red plays instead of safe blue plays? Virginia and Maine have Harris in the 80s.

[J Mark @Pete_Monahan_JD]

Ma! Grandpa just figured out what @polymarket is! Ya, the new gambling poll!!!

[Alex Keeney (fka Keendawg 🐶🇺🇸) @keendawg]

This is the decisive moment in the history of political prediction markets.

Save this industry. Tell the CFTC why elections matter.

See the link below for more.

https://t.co/aSwRoUOJUl

[ToadSong @ToadSong_PI]

@GaetenD FYI, for a while, the expiration date was Jan. 13. But a few days ago, PI changed the expiration date to Feb 1. I'm not sure why.

[ToadSong @ToadSong_PI]

1. Loeffler
2. Perdue
3. None of them
4. .9%

[Open Model Project @OpenModelProj]

Ready for a cash money Peach State Pick'em?

Quote tweet this with your answers by 7 pm ET. Get them all right (1st) &amp; win $100.

1. Loeffler or Warnock?
2. Perdue or Ossoff?
3. How many will concede by 2 am?
4. To the nearest 0.1%, what will be the narrower of the 2 margins?

[ToadSong @ToadSong_PI]

1. Trump
2. $.39
3. New York
4. China
5. science/scientist(s)
6. 1
7. 3
8. 3
9. 1
10. 2

[Old Bull TV @OldBullTV]

It's Debate Eve &amp; that can only mean one thing.

"Win Old Bull's Money" is back. And it's 5x bigger!

Retweet this by 9 pm Thu. with your predictions. Get all 10 right (1st) &amp; win $500.

Since no one went 10/10 last time, there's a guaranteed $100 for whoever gets the most right.